建立我国纳税评估制度的思考

"征、管、查"三分离后,税务管理相对弱化,税务机关对纳税人无法实施有效的监控和管理,导致税款流失比较严重.为此,国家税务总局颁发了<纳税评估管理办法(试行)>(国税发[2005]43号,以下简称<办法>),出台了纳税评估制度.从实践探索的角度来看,征管改革是必需也是必要的,纳税评估在一定程度上也起到了积极作用.但笔者认为这项制度存在一些现实运用问题,其最大的弊端在于缺乏法律依据.     

Annual report readability and corporate agency costs

Annual reports are the main sources of information for outside investors’ investment decisions and enable shareholders to supervise the management. Difficulties with the readability of these reports may therefore have serious consequences. Using 19,221 firm-year observations of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2001 to 2015, we investigate the association between annual report readability and corporate agency costs, where readability is proxied by report file length and/or file size. We find that firms with better annual report readability experience lower agency costs, and the negative association between readability and agency costs is more pronounced in firms with higher external audit quality, internal control quality or analyst coverage. These results hold after several robustness checks. The positive effect of annual report readability is stronger in private firms than in state-owned enterprises, and becomes stronger after the implementation of new accounting standards in 2007. Readable annual reports can help in monitoring corporate insiders’ opportunistic behavior and thus reduce agency costs.     

税制变革、人口增长及其对中国历史演进的长期影响——基于“两税法”前后的考察

正确认识中国历史上的人口增长对理解中国经济与社会的长期变迁具有十分重要的意义.文章使用现代经济学的分析方法对中国历史上税制变革的人口效应及其长期影响进行了分析.研究表明,不但税额的变化对人口增长有很重要的影响,而且税制结构的变化也是影响人口数量的一个重要因素:(1)当税额给定时,丁税占比与长期人口水平负相关,与稳态人均产出以及稳态家庭收入正相关;(2)当税收结构给定时,税额与长期人口水平负相关,与稳态人均产出正相关,对家庭收入的长期影响则取决于丁税占比和劳动产出弹性的大小.结合历史上赋役变化的具体情况,我们预测两税法以来的税制变革倾向于释放更多的人口,并引起劳动生产率的长期下降,但是,稳态人口水平的提高却为两宋以后王朝寿命的延长提供了经济基础.文章对于分析当代税收的长期经济效应以及研究税收调整和税制改革也具有一定的启示.     

互联网环境下消费者跨渠道购买行为研究

随着网上零售市场的快速发展,众多传统零售商纷纷开设网络商店,实体店铺和网络商店相结合的多渠道零售模式已经成为我国零售业发展的趋势。文章基于认知失调理论和信任转移理论,构建了一个综合线下印象、线下信任、感知网上服务能力和网上购买意向的研究模型。实证检验结果表明,线下印象和线下信任对感知网店服务能力均有正向影响,而感知网店服务能力对消费者网上购买意向具有正向影响。本研究的结论对传统零售商进军电子商务领域提供了借鉴。     

数字金融发展能否在农村金融市场发挥“鲶鱼效应”*——来自中国农信机构的证据

本文从农信机构贷款支农的角度出发，探究数字金融能够在多大程度上促进市场竞争，进而在农村金融市场发挥“鲶鱼效应”。理论部分基于市场势力假说，分析了数字金融发展对农信机构放贷行为的影响；实证部分将北京大学数字普惠金融的县级指数与县域农村信用社、农村商业银行的贷款数据相结合，对理论假说进行了检验。结论如下：第一，数字金融发展能够激励当地农信机构提升涉农贷款和农户贷款的投放规模和增长速度，表明数字金融在农村金融市场上发挥了“鲶鱼效应”。第二，数字金融发展对农信机构支农力度的正向影响主要来源于竞争激励机制，而现阶段数字金融难以在技术上对农信机构起到示范作用。第三，进一步讨论发现，数字金融发展还有助于降低农信机构的贷款利率，让更多的涉农主体享受到利率更低的信贷服务，真正推动农村正规金融服务的“普”和“惠”共同实现。     

Consistency between Sakernas and the IFLS for Analyses of Indonesia’s Labour Market: A Cross-Validation Exercise

This article assesses the consistency between Indonesia’s National Labour Force Survey (Sakernas) and the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for analyses of the country’s labour market. I show that Sakernas and the IFLS depict different levels of and changes in labour-market indicators. My estimates of the labour-force participation model, the sector-choice model, and the Mincer model are all statistically different between the two surveys, although the magnitudes are similar for labour-force participation and sector choice. The IFLS shows a much higher return to education than Sakernas, according to the Mincer model. In addition, I find that the cross-sectional sample of the IFLS and the panel sample of the IFLS corrected for attrition yield similar coefficient estimates from all equations. The findings in this article provide an important reference for researchers interested in using Sakernas and the IFLS—either individually or combined—to analyse labour-market issues in Indonesia.     

论我国实行强制性环境责任保险制度的可行性——以环境责任保险制度的发展演进为视角

近年来,我国经济的高速发展带来了大量的社会问题,日益严重的环境污染问题就是其中之一。为了治理环境污染,提高污染企业的环境保护意识,我国于20世纪90年代初开始试行环境责任保险,经历了从任意性责任保险到强制性责任保险的发展历程,发展思路和模式也逐渐清晰,当前已经具备构建强制性环境责任保险制度的基本条件。实行强制性环境责任保险与企业社会责任理念相契合,投保环境责任保险是企业承担社会责任的方式之一。近年来我国政府相继出台了一系列推进强制性环境责任保险制度发展的规定,为制度构建奠定了政策基础。2014年4月24日新修订的《环境保护法》第52条明确规定国家鼓励投保环境强制责任保险,为制度构建提供了法律依据。我国在船舶油污损害强制责任保险和交强险方面的立法和实践可以为制度构建提供参考,同时在保险模式选择上可以借鉴西方国家成熟的环境责任保险制度。     

Inflation and inflation uncertainty in China

The study examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in China using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model. Particularly, this link is investigated in China’s urban and rural sectors, motivated by the substantial urban–rural divide. The results provide strong statistical supportive evidence that higher inflation raises inflation uncertainty. On the other hand, evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation is mixed depending on the sample periods and areas examined. The understanding of inflation-uncertainty nexus in China could provide implications to policymakers in the adoption of monetary policies.     

经济新常态下我国双向直接投资发展

美国于2014年11月正式停止了资产购买计划,美联储资产负债表规模不再进一步膨胀,欧洲和日本也调整了量化宽松政策实施方案.与此同时,新兴市场经济国家和欧元区外围国家面临脆弱性调整,中国经济面临增速下滑、发展战略调整、竞争优势转换、红利收益变化等挑战,后金融危机时代的中国经济正逐渐进入新常态.内外部环境的变化使得中国外向型经济发展面临新的挑战和机遇,双向直接投资将是中国外向型经济发展的重要趋向.     

Credit card cash‐out as informal financing: Evidence from China

Using a proprietary account‐level database from a commercial bank in China, we document that credit card holders can ease their credit constraints through the practice of cash‐out based on bogus transactions using credit cards. We find that such behaviour might be beneficial to both cardholders and banks. First, we find that a 1% increase in the cumulative number of credit card cash‐out transactions lowers the probability of default by 9.59%. Second, for private businesses, a 1% increase in the number of abnormal cash‐out transactions lowers overdue risk by 13.45%. Third, by lowering the overdue risk, the card‐issuing bank earns a larger profit. Our results are consistent with the notion that unconventional credit card cash‐out can mitigate the extent of capital misallocation in emerging markets.