人民币实际汇率调整趋势与中国经济转型

1978年以来的人民币实际汇率呈现出长期的贬值态势,本文结合中国经济改革的历程深入分析了实际汇率贬值的内在机制,认为市场化进程中的制度变迁和技术进步是其根本原因。而目前经济的内外失衡所引发的实际汇率和名义汇率的升值压力,本质上是深层次市场化改革推进受阻后经济结构扭曲的外在表现。本文认为,以汇率形成机制改革为主要内容的名义的市场化改革只能缓解而无法根除这种压力,推行土地、劳动力和自然资源等要素价格在内的实际的市场改革才是纠正内外失衡,缓解汇率升值压力的治本之道。     

Determinants of Inflow to Mutual Funds: Criterion and Methodology for Their Application to the Mainland China Market

This study is based on the Froot, O’Connell, and Seasholes [2001] and Hsieh, Yang and Yu [2008] as foundations to study which reasons and control factors cause herding behavior of mutual fund inflows. The study uses the most popular Asian emerging market, China, as the sample to determine the real attractive reason behind the mutual fund inflows to China. The significant determinant of the mutual fund inflows to China is stock returns for both Shanghai and Shenzhen A stock markets.     

依赖性与嵌入性：产学研合作创新持续性研究

作为合作创新的重要形式,产学研合作创新为资源整合、产业优化与经济发展作出了重要贡献。基于国家重点产业专利信息服务平台,以我国电子元器件产业产学研合作发明专利为数据来源,采用Logistic回归模型实证检验依赖性与嵌入性对产学研合作创新持续性的影响。结果表明：在依赖性的3个要素中,地理邻近性对产学研合作创新持续性不具有显著影响,知识相似性和身份相似性均对产学研合作创新持续性具有显著正向影响;在嵌入性的3个要素中,结构嵌入性对产学研合作创新持续性不具有显著影响,关系嵌入性和位置嵌入性均对产学研合作创新持续性具有显著正向影响。但是,当所有因素同时进入回归模型时,只有知识相似性和关系嵌入性对产学研合作创新持续性具有显著正向影响,身份相似性和位置嵌入性的影响不再显著。     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk

This paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk using data from China. We develop a new index to measure Chinese economic policy uncertainty and find that economic policy uncertainty has a remarkable positive effect on stock price crash risk. However, the effect reverses later. The results also indicate that the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock price crash risk is more prominent for state‐owned enterprises. Moreover, this effect is more prominent for firms with higher information asymmetry and firms with greater disagreement among investors, indicating that economic policy uncertainty affects crash risk through two mechanisms: managers’ concealment of bad news and investors’ heterogeneous beliefs.     

Agriculture and aggregate productivity: A quantitative cross-country analysis

A decomposition of aggregate labor productivity based on internationally comparable data reveals that a high share of employment and low labor productivity in agriculture are mainly responsible for low aggregate productivity in poor countries. Using a two-sector general-equilibrium model, we show that differences in economy-wide productivity, barriers to modern intermediate inputs in agriculture, and barriers in the labor market generate large cross-country differences in the share of employment and labor productivity in agriculture. The model implies a factor difference of 10.8 in aggregate labor productivity between the richest and the poorest 5% of the countries in the world, leaving the unexplained factor at 3.2. Overall, this two-sector framework performs much better than a single-sector growth model in explaining observed differences in international productivity.     

流动人口与本地人口就业质量差异研究：现状、来源与成因

当前流动人口特别是农业转移人口的市民化已成为城镇化的重要任务,而在城镇化进程中,公平对待流动人口,缩小流动人口和本地人口就业质量的差距是流动人口市民化的关键问题。文章基于2014年、2016年和2018年的中国家庭追踪调查数据,从就业收益、环境、保障和感受四个维度构建了劳动者层面的就业质量指标体系。对城城流动人口与本地劳动者、乡城流动人口与本地劳动者的就业质量进行对比分析和差异分解。研究发现：（1）流动人口的劳动者就业质量显著低于本地人口,乡城流动人口与本地劳动者的就业质量差距较大且逐年增大。城城流动人口与本地劳动者的就业质量差距较小。（2）就业质量的组间差距主要来源于就业环境、保障和感受,就业收益的差异并不显著。（3）本地人口与流动人口的就业质量差异主要是由中等就业质量人群的差异引起的。（4）人力资本是导致劳动者就业质量组间差异的最主要原因,但也有着明显的地区户籍分隔和城乡户籍分隔因素。文章的研究为流动人口政策制度提供了实证经验,也可为流动人口政策的评估提供参考。     

剩余索取权、剩余控制权与公有水务公司管理--一种解决农村集中供水的新模式

在迈向全面建设小康社会的道路上,农村社会经济的发展应当与城市享有同等地位,农村饮水安全也成为发展过程中迫切需要解决的问题。为了选择适合我国国情的公有水务公司模式,激励公有水务公司发展,对比了当今世界现存的主要供水管理模式,探讨了最优委托权与成员相对重要性的关系,并根据具体情况分析最优委托权的大小,最后尝试探讨最优委托权中剩余索取权与剩余控制权之间的分配机制,为相关管理部门更好地服务农村居民提供参考和借鉴。     

海峡两岸经济合作:创新与双赢——第二次海峡两岸经济发展论坛综述

2008年5月17～18日,由国际欧亚科学院中国科学中心发起,福建师范大学、厦门大学、福建省社会科学界联合会联合主办的第二次“海峡两岸经济发展论坛（福州）”在福州举行。来自大陆、台湾、香港的知名专家学者、企业界高层人士、120余人参加会议。专家们从两岸经济合作发展的新机遇、制度创新与创造双赢、两岸经济进一步合作的动力、基础与模式、两岸产业合作、建设海峡西岸经济区等方面,阐述了各自的思考、建议与依据。现将论坛的主要观点综述如下。     

Domestic R&D,Foreign Direct Investment and Welfare

This paper provides a new rationale to examine the two‐way relationship between domestic research and development (R&D) and foreign direct investment (FDI), as well as their impacts on domestic welfare. Our analysis is based on the strategic interaction in cost‐reducing investment decisions between domestic firms and a foreign firm, which is different from the common factors that are discussed in the literature such as spillovers and technology sourcing. Our results are as follows. We show that domestic R&D investment may either increase or decrease the foreign firm's FDI incentives. Further, depending on the marginal cost of domestic firms, domestic R&D incentives can always increase regardless of the effects of domestic R&D investment on the foreign firm's FDI decision. Finally, we find that domestic welfare improves under domestic cost reduction if the slope of the marginal cost of domestic R&D investment is sufficiently small.