Why does the trend extracted by the Hodrick–Prescott filtering seem to be more plausible than the linear trend?

Why does the trend extracted by the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filtering (HP trend) seem to be more plausible than the linear trend estimated by OLS? This article provides an answer for it. Because the HP filtering is a basic econometric tool, it is necessary to have a precise understanding of the nature of it. This article concludes that the HP trend is calculated by adding the low-frequency component (the long-term periodic fluctuation) of the linearly detrended series to the linear trend, which leads to that the HP trend seems to be more plausible than the linear trend. Other than this key result, this article shows that the HP cycle, which is defined as the residuals of the HP filtering, can be interpreted as the high-frequency component (the short-term periodic fluctuation) of the linearly detrended series. An empirical illustration is also provided.     

Rise and Fall of Multinational Enterprises in Vietnam: Survival Analysis Using Census Data during 2000–2011*

This study examined the survival of multinational enterprises (MNE) in Vietnam during 2000–2011 using Cox hazard models. The characteristics and ownership structure of firms and the nationality of foreign partners are found to be associated with the probability of firm exit, with a firm having greater capital share of foreign partners surviving longer. An efficient local government requiring less time for bureaucratic procedures and inspections is found to be associated with a lower probability of MNE exiting. Meanwhile, transparency in business regulations and predictability in implementing central government policies accelerate the survival of highly competitive MNE.     

Exploring the causal relationship between hospital length of stay and re-hospitalization among Japanese AMI patients

We explore the causal relationship between hospital length of stay (LOS) and re-hospitalization for Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) patients in Japan, where the average LOS is the longest among OECD countries. Using chart-based data, we address the endogeneity between LOS and re-hospitalization probability by using an exogenous variation based on Rokuyo (the six basic labels allocated to each day), which is found to be irrelevant to admission day but relevant to discharge day. While we do find a significant and positive association between LOS and re-hospitalization probability in the OLS estimation, we do not find a significant relationship once LOS is instrumented by Rokuyo in various instrumental variable estimations. This implies that additional stay that was induced owing to patient’s choice of preferred Rokuyo at discharge has no effect on re-hospitalization probability.     

Dynamic Stability, Paradoxical Comparative Statics, and Factor–Market Distortions in an Economy with Three Production Sectors

In an earlier paper the authors clarified the relationship between the stability of long–run equilibrium and the possibility of paradoxical comparative statics in the Lerner–Samuelson two–by–two model of production with factor–market distortions (see Review of International Economics 9 (1901) :383–400). The present paper extends the analysis to an economy with three production sectors. It is found that almost all properties of long–run equilibrium in the two–by–two model with factor–market distortions continue to hold, while some new properties, such as plurality of equilibrium, appear. Specifically, the instability of the adjustment process is not ruled out; a paradox cannot coexist with stable equilibrium in a small open economy, but may do so in a closed economy.     

Population and Urbanization Trends in Post-war Japan

This paper analyses the population change and urbanization process in post-war Japan. We trace the process of population concentration into urban areas, in parallel with economic development after the war. The concentration of population into urban areas can be characterized by three major metropolitan regions: Tokyo, Keihanshin (Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe) and Nagoya. We also show that the urbanization process of Japan in the period from 1965 to 1985 can be characterized by two spatial phenomena; firstly, the suburbanization of the existing metropolitan areas and, secondly, the spatial dispersal of urbanized areas.     

The influence of natural hazards on urban housing location

The effects of natural hazards on urban housing location are investigated, using as an example seismic damage. The seismic damage function is allowed to arbitrarily vary in two-dimensional (r, θ) space rather than the usual one-dimensional models of Mills, Muth, Alonso, etc. Damage is assumed to only affect capital inputs (i.e., the structure), not land. Under the influence of expected damage, the population and CBD (treated as a point) are seen to shift toward lower expected damage. It is found that the relative importance of damage increases as the capital productivity parameter (b) of the Cobb-Douglas production function increases.     

THE IMPACTS OF FINANCIAL DEREGULATION UPON TRADING EFFICIENCY AND THE LEVELS OF RISK AND RETURN OF JAPANESE BANKS

Japanese banks are very large and were rigidly controlled until financial deregulation began in the late 1970s. This paper measures the impact of deregulation upon the trading efficiency and the levels of risk and return of the largest 27 listed Japanese banks. We found that as the pace of deregulation increased, there were significant increases in trading efficiency as well as in the levels of returns and risks. With deregulation, the Japanese banking system, which contains the largest banks in the world, has become less protected and more vulnerable to the discipline of market movements.     

Nonlinear income variance profiles and consumption inequality over the life cycle

In contrast to many other countries, consumption inequalities in Japan are not constant over household age but increase from around middle age—a fact first highlighted by Ohtake and Saito [Ohtake, F., Saito, M., 1998. Population aging and consumption inequality in Japan. Rev. Income Wealth 44, 361–381]. Given this information, we examine whether this phenomenon is consistent with the standard precautionary saving model developed by Carroll [Carroll, C.D., 1997. Buffer-stock savings and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis. Quart. J. Econ. 62, 1–56]. Specifically, we investigate: (1) the degree of age dependence of idiosyncratic income risks; and (2) the importance of age dependence for the evolution of inequalities in consumption predicted by the household model of Carroll (1997). We find a strong age dependence of income risks, which creates a nonlinear age–variance profile of income, and the standard precautionary saving model is consistent with the observed consumption inequalities as long as we take the nonlinearity in age–variance profiles of income into account.     

Difference or Ratio: Implications of Status Preference on Stagnation

We consider a dynamic macroeconomic model where households derive utility from wealth comparisons. Measure of relative affluence can be the ratio to, or the difference from, the social average. These two specifications lead to quite different equilibrium consequences: under the ratio specification full employment is always realised, whereas under the difference specification persistent shortage of aggregate demand can result. Using data of an experiment on status concern, we empirically find that the difference specification of relative affluence fits the data better than the ratio specification. Our work may help in understanding mechanisms behind recent stagnation in developed economies.