Did Leaving the Gold Standard Tame the Business Cycle? Evidence from NBER Reference Dates and Real GNP

Cover and Pecorino (2005) claim that the March 1933 departure from the gold standard is the most probable break point ushering in an era of longer U.S. expansions, both absolutely and relative to subsequent recessions. Their analysis is based on cycle durations as defined by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reference dates. However, much of macroeconomic analysis is based on (i) growth cycles (i.e., periods when the economy's production is above or below trend) rather than absolute increases or decreases in economic activity; and (ii) aggregate time series' volatility as the prime indicator of macroeconomic stability. In light of this, we reevaluate the March 1933 break point. First, using HP‐filtered quarterly gross national product (GNP), our analysis of growth cycle durations still implies a break point near 1933. Second, we test for structural breaks in the volatility of GNP growth rates and deviations from trends. These tests suggest a structural break considerably later than 1933, perhaps as late as the 1950s.     

河北省沿海与内陆经济差异与协调发展研究

文章主要采用区位商、泰尔指数分解等方法对河北省沿海与内陆之间的区域经济差异的总体特征和空间特征进行量化分析,得出下列结论：近年来河北省沿海与内陆地区的经济发展差距不断扩大,并且对河北省整体经济发展差异的贡献逐年增加。并在此基础上探讨了差异的形成原因,提出了沿海与内陆经济协调发展的相应对策。     

利用GARCH-M类模型和极值理论对上证综指的研究

金融时间序列具有分布的厚尾性、波动的集聚性等特征,传统的方法难以准确的度量其风险。文中运用一种新的估计VaR和ES的方法,即采取两阶段法。首先用GARCH-M类模型(GARCH-M、EGARCH-M和TGARCH-M)拟和原始收益率数据,得到残差序列;第二步用极值分析的方法分析的尾部,最后得到收益率序列的动态VaR和ES。最后对三个模型的计算结果进行比较。     

绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业的影响研究

为了避免绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业造成更大的经济损失,保持行业的持续健康发展,本文分析了绿色壁垒对我国纺织服装业带来的积极影响和消极影响,进而提出应对绿色壁垒消极影响的措施。     

Financial investor sentiment and the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008

From both theoretical and policy perspectives, it is important to understand if financial speculation contributes to the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008. In this paper, we disentangle the effects of financial speculation from those of economic fundamentals by focusing on exogenous changes of financial speculation in oil markets identified by changes in financial investor sentiment. Furthermore, we focus on a quasi-experiment setting, and investigate both sentiment-driven overvaluation of oil prices and subsequent mispricing correction. Our findings suggest that financial speculation might have contributed to the 2003–2008 boom/bust in oil prices.     

Internal branding experiences in the financial services sector in South Africa

There is little doubt that employees are critical to the delivery of the service brand. Although existing models propose methods of internal branding, very little is known about the actual corporate experience. Academics around the world have spent decades probing internal marketing, its subset—internal branding—and the impact of internal branding on service delivery. This research focuses on how organisations execute internal branding, revealing critical success factors as well as obstacles encountered. The research was conducted in five large organisations in the financial services sector in South Africa. Each organisation is a highly recognisable consumer brand; the oldest of which is nearing 200 years of being in business and the youngest is just 20 years old. This research adds to the body of knowledge regarding organisational practice of internal branding. Key themes are identified, three of which are largely absent from extant models and literature.     

旅行社供应链管理初探

在旅游业转型时期,旅行社为主体的供应链模式将发生变化。尤其在电子商务的冲击下,以旅行社为代表的旅游代理商面临着极大的挑战,以单个企业运作的旅游企业再也不能适应时代的要求,基于供应链管理的旅游业管理模式便应运而生。目前大多数旅行社在供应链管理中存在企业对建立旅行社供应链管理模式的重要性认识不足、供应链上各企业缺乏合作、没有形成整体合力、信息系统不完善、供应链上的各企业对市场环境变化不敏感等问题。应采取注重旅行社供应链管理模式下的合作伙伴关系、提高对建立旅行社供应链管理模式的重要性的认识、完善管理信息系统、加强供应链上各企业信息技术标准的规范化建设、旅行社的集团化发展、实行跨文化管理等措施来解决旅行社供应链管理中的瓶颈问题。     

泛长三角地区产品专业化分工实证——基于产品互补模式的研究

泛长三角区域发展分工合作是目前区域经济研究的一个热点问题。本文依据产业经济学中产业优势理论，基于产品互补模型运用产品专业化系数测算的方法，对泛长三角区域四省一市的产业结构进行了实证分析，根据得出的结论提出了分工合作建议。     

我国房地产上市公司并购绩效问题及对策探究

本文针对房地产上市公司并购中出现的问题,结合当前的经济政策分别从政府角度、行业角度、房地产上市公司自身角度提出相应的对策。     

如何提高企业思想政治工作的实效性

随着企业的发展和形势的变化,如何才能把新形势下企业思想政治工作做到家,做到位,做到实处,有效地发挥思想政治工作生命线的作用,已成为摆在我们面前亟待解决的问题.本文就此浅谈几点看法.