The effects of exchange rate pass-through and cost channel on price level: The case of fragile five countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.     

Middle‐income countries: trapped or merely slowing?

Since the turn of the century, growth has slowed in a number of middle income economies, giving rise to fears ‐ exacerbated by the financial crisis of 2008‐09 ‐ that they were entering a low growth equilibrium. A survey of the literature on the middle income trap suggests that it is difficult to rigorously identify countries that might be trapped; that in most cases growth appears to be regressing to a longer term normal and in East Asian economies remains at a respectable 5 percent to 7 per cent rate; that the research on the trap has yet to come up with a new growth model for middle income economies; and that policy recommendations on offer are of the generic variety applicable to virtually all economies, developed and developing.     

Company Financial Performance and ISO 9000 Registration: Evidence from Malaysia

This study investigates factors, including ISO 9000 registration, that impact on corporate performance, in a sample of Malaysian companies. To achieve this objective, the annual reports of 162 companies (81 ISO 9000 accredited companies and 81 non-ISO accredited companies) were collected and a performance evaluation model was estimated. The results of the analysis revealed that factors such as ISO 9000 registration, return on assets (ROA), economic value added (EVA) and industrial category (INDCAT) determine corporate performance.     

Impact of Funding Targeted Pre-school Interventions on School Readiness: Evidence from the Netherlands

We analyze the effectiveness of the early childhood programme (ECP) in the Netherlands. The programme is designed for 2.5–4 year olds from disadvantaged backgrounds. 37 municipalities received an additional subsidy to expand ECP programmes, which allows us to analyze the effects of the programme within a difference-in-difference-in-differences framework. Most children first enroll in primary schools at age 4 in the Netherlands, but pupils begin to learn reading and mathematics in grade 3 at age 6. We use grade repetition constructed from school registry data from 2008 to 2015 in the first two grades as an indicator of school readiness. Our results show significantly lower grade repetition rates for targeted boys who are in regions that receive the subsidy. Grade repetition drops by 0.8–1.8 percentage points from a mean of 10.5% for the disadvantaged group targeted by the programme.     

Decision Process for Adoption of Innovative Products in the European Seafood Market: The Importance of Supply and Demand Factors

This study proposes a new approach with two-dimensional point of view to test predicting factors that are influencing European trader decisions for the adoption of innovative seafood products in the distributor channels. A combination of two main predicting factors for adoption is investigated in the “supply factors” (4Ps: product, promotion, place, and price) and the “five innovation demand factors” (5IDs: relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability). The findings indicate that 4Ps and 5IDs have a significant effect as controlling variables in the decision-making process for innovation adoption. This fact shows a strategic function and illustrates that supply–demand factors have a pressure effect on the innovation adoption process in the market. The results are important both for satisfying consumer expectations and for industrial innovation strategies.     

Sun,sand and September 11: a model of tourism demand for the Maldives

Tourism is a key source of income for many small island economies, and so it is important to understand its determinants in such countries. We estimate a tourism demand model for the Maldives’ five main source markets and find that, in addition to the usual foreign income and own price variables, the cost of travel and of visiting alternative destinations (often missing from studies of this nature) almost always have a significant role. In addition, the country’s own marketing efforts prove effective at influencing demand. Finally, we find evidence the War on Terror has persistently depressed demand from some markets.     

Planning and Performance of Small and Medium Enterprise Operators in a Country in Transition

This paper examines the relationship between planning and performance of small and medium enterprise operators in a country in economic transition. The literature on planning–performance relationship reports mixed findings. In a period of uncertainty, as exemplified by conditions of economic difficulties, one would expect firms to do more planning. On the contrary, our study shows that economic difficulties do not encourage firms to plan seriously. Our study also shows that firms that plan do not necessarily experience increased performance, with the exception of the manufacturing sector. Other findings of the study include a significant gender difference in the planning sophistication of small firms in Ghana, with firms managed or owned by males having sophisticated planning compared with female-managed or female-owned businesses. Size did not moderate planning performance in our study. Planning affected performance equally in both large and small firms in our study. We found no difference among the planning clusters for education. Firms with the highest growth in sales had low-planning sophistication. This study contributes to our understanding and appreciation of situations in which planning does not necessarily add significant value to organizations (by way of increased performance).     

Purchasing power parity: Evidence from developing Countries

This paper utilizes the dynamic error-correction model (DECM) to examine the issue of purchasing power parity (PPP) for 11 developing countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Guatemala, Kenya, Nigeria, Peru, South Africa, and Venezuela). For comparison purposes, evidence from the traditional unit root methods of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron is presented. The results from the conventional unit root tests failed to find evidence of PPP in all of the cases. However, the results from the generalized error-correction model detected evidence of PPP for nine out of the 11 countries under consideration. Based on these results, it was concluded that PPP holds in the long-run for the sample countries and that the implicit restrictions associated with unit root tests prevented earlier studies from finding evidence in support of PPP theory.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only. They do not reflect the views of the World Bank.     

Oligopoly and behavioral uncertainty: An application of fuzzy set theory

This paper provides a brief sketch of fuzzy mathematics. It employs this relatively new mathematical tool to define and describe oligopoly markets and to quantitatively establish the impacts of uncertainty on the decision making that is intrinsic to oligopolistic industries. It illustrates how the technique would be used, for example, by applying fuzzy mathematics to the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index.The authors acknowledge and appreciate the helpful comments provided by the anonymous referees.