Short-term forecasting of crime

The major question investigated is whether it is possible to accurately forecast selected crimes 1 month ahead in small areas, such as police precincts. In a case study of Pittsburgh, PA, we contrast the forecast accuracy of univariate time series models with naïve methods commonly used by police. A major result, expected for the small-scale data of this problem, is that average crime count by precinct is the major determinant of forecast accuracy. A fixed-effects regression model of absolute percent forecast error shows that such counts need to be on the order of 30 or more to achieve accuracy of 20% absolute forecast error or less. A second major result is that practically any model-based forecasting approach is vastly more accurate than current police practices. Holt exponential smoothing with monthly seasonality estimated using city-wide data is the most accurate forecast model for precinct-level crime series.     

Human resource policy in social work management: a response to enforced market orientation

This article is a contribution to the study of public service organizations converting to a market orientation. The case examined here is that of a social services department which opted for the strategy of restructuring on the lines of budget autonomy but accompanied it by an unusual focus upon managerial skills. The effect was to personalize the change. The conflict between old ways and new thinking was congealed into personal debate by the focus on skills so that changes had to be resolved internally. The rationale for this strategy is located in the antipathy between professional social work values and the practice of management.     

Bank monitoring, profit efficiency and the commercial lending business model

We build a bank-specific, fixed-effects regression model to develop proxies for a bank's monitoring effort. Our results show that banks that devote more resources to monitoring (based on these proxies) are more profit efficient and the effect is large. A very important theoretical literature in finance suggests that monitoring is value enhancing; we provide empirical evidence consistent with the theory. This research thus establishes an important link between the large literature on bank monitoring and the equally large literature on profit efficiency. Monitoring is a key technology in the commercial lending business model (e.g. Mester, Nakamura, & Renault, 2007). Thus, these results point to considerable strengths in the dominant business model used in the banking industry.     

Serie → Nursing English <Emphasis Type="Bold">Mundpropaganda</Emphasis>

Zusammenfassung   K?rperpflege im Krankenhaus ist ein sensibles Thema. Neben dem Duschen und Waschen der Patienten geh?rt auch die Mundpflege der Patienten zu den t?glichen Arbeiten des Pflegepersonals. N?chster 5-Tage-Intensivkurs: 1. bis 5. Dezember 2008 „Communication with patients in hospital”     

Serie → Nursing English <Emphasis Type="Bold">Aids</Emphasis>

Zusammenfassung   Nach wie vor ist AIDS nicht heilbar und daher ein Thema, mit dem wir uns intensiv besch?ftigen müssen. Natürlich auch in der Pflege.     

Serie → Nursing English <Emphasis Type="Bold">Was haben Sie gesagt,Schwester?</Emphasis>

Zusammenfasung   Die Kommunikation mit Patienten aller Altersstufen kann schwierig sein, wenn diese schwerh?rig sind. Und wenn Patienten noch dazu ?lter und eventuell verwirrt sind, dann wird die Kommunikation im Krankenhaus noch komplizierter. Heute erfahren Sie, wie man mit der Situation umgehen kann, wenn Ihr Patient nur Englisch spricht. N?chster Kurs für das Auffrischen Ihrer Pflegeenglischkenntnisse: 17.12.2008 – „English*Practice*Reflection”     

Realoptionsbewertung — Eine Fallstudie

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Founder/Chief Executive Officer Exit: A Social Capital Perspective of New Ventures

The founder/chief executive officer (CEO) exit is a significant event for all business organizations. However, a social capital perspective suggests that the exit of the founder/CEO may be more disruptive for new start-ups due to the critical role the founder/CEO plays in the new organization and the heightened potential chance for failure of a new venture. A social capital perspective suggests that the ability of the entrepreneurial firm to perform better is affiliated with the social capital within the organization. This study supports a social capital perspective of CEO exit and social capital's impact on performance. It helps establish a foundation of study of CEO exit and new ventures from this perspective.     

DO SMALL FIRMS' PRICE-COST MARGINS FOLLOW THOSE OF LARGE FIRMS?

The paper investigates the extent to which small firms' price-cost margins follow those of large firms. A two-equation model is used with data for 36 Dutch three-digit manufacturing industries over the period 1975–86. The effects of market structure characteristics are also examined. The main result is that small firms (10-50 employees) appear to have the freedom to set prices above cost independently of larger firms in the same industry.     

The pricing of interest rate swaps

Interest rate swaps have become an important tool for financial institutions because they provide a convenient way to reduce interest rate risk. Swaps allow financial institutions to obtain short-term deposits in the local deposit market and then transform these into longer-term liabilities. The growth of swaps has been explosive, with the swap market growing from nothing in 1981 to an estimated $889 billion in 1987. In addition to their role in managing interest rate risk, swaps have become important to financial managers for other reasons, and as a result the swap market is monitored by financial managers as are money and capital markets. Because of its growing importance, an empirical perspective on how swaps are priced is needed. This article develops a simple market model and then estimates the model using data provided by three major swap market participants.