Expected risk and excess returns predictability in emerging bond markets

This study examines the predictability of expected excess returns from eight emerging bond markets within an international asset pricing framework. Two sets of instruments are used, which include both world and local factors, to forecast emerging bond returns. Besides investigating the influence of the macroeconomic factors in specific countries on bond returns in those countries, this study also divides local factors into macroeconomic and financial factors. Unlike previous studies, we apply macroeconomic instruments that contain more information on excess returns as a proxy for local risk factors via principal component analysis methodology. The information variable approach enables the prediction of excess bond returns based on world and local factors and facilitating understanding of the degree of integration between emerging bond markets and developed bond markets. The results indicate that the bond market in emerging world is partially integrated to that in the developed world and the predictability of local factors that include both financial and macroeconomic information variables can forecast around 25–66% of the returns of emerging bonds. Incorporating the macroeconomic variables increases the explanatory power of the model. Both world and country-specific local instruments can forecast excess bond returns, but local instruments appear to be better predictors of such returns, particularly the local credit spread to US. Additionally, this study finds that investor risk aversion is significant among most of sample countries.     

Consistency in performance rankings: the Peru water sector

Regulators can utilize a number of alternative methodologies for comparing firm efficiency, but these approaches need to be robust to be accepted by stakeholders. This study evaluates the consistency of water-utility performance rankings for Peruvian water utilities. The results indicate that data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) yield similar rankings in this case. In addition, the techniques have comparable success for identifying the best and worst performing utilities. However, these rankings based on sophisticated statistical techniques are not highly correlated with those developed by the Peruvian water regulator (SUNASS). This result does not invalidate the performance rankings obtained by the regulator, since those rankings are based on more dimensions of utility performance. However, they illustrate the importance of developing sound techniques for identifying weak utilities. Improvements in sector performance require that benchmarking be given greater attention than in the past.     

Merger and optimal number of firms: an integrated simulation approach

In a market where imperfect competition occurs as a result of mergers, this study proposes a framework consisting of both efficiency and risk analyses that allow the simulation of pro forma mergers and hence the determination of the optimal number of firms in the industry. This is valuable policy information for regulators concerned with possible intervention in the case of competition and anti-trust violations, and also for business managers seeking acquisition targets. The framework is applied to the banking industry in Taiwan. Results reveal the potential for industrial restructuring in a sector where the optimal number of Bank Holding Companies (BHCs) is between four and six, subject to whether partial control is assumed.     

The frequency and magnitude of earnings management in China

Earnings management is an indicator of the corporate governance quality and investor protection standard. We study the frequencies and magnitudes of earnings management under two different thresholds, zero earnings and prior earnings, in the Chinese market from 1997 to 2004. We model earnings as a mixed-normal distribution and obtain parameter estimators that measure the frequency and magnitude of earnings management. We show that the practice of earnings management has gone up both in frequency and magnitude during the post-2000 period. We also find that the frequency and magnitude of earnings management are higher when firms try to avoid negative earnings than when firms try to report earnings increase. Our findings reflect the current economic environment in China and caution investors on the low-disclosure quality in the Chinese stock market.     

The effect of outward investment to China on domestic R&D: a two-hurdle model with endogenous ODI

Outward direct investment (ODI) and domestic R&D are interrelated, but empirical evidence is affected by the nature of a firm's data, which are heavily censored. Firm data contain a firm's yes/no decision to invest in China, yes/no decision of R&D, and the decision of R&D intensity. We thus adopt a two-hurdle model and allow the China investment decision to be endogenous in an R&D model in order to examine the effect of ODI in China on domestic R&D investment in Taiwan's electronics industry. In the model, a two-equation simultaneous subsystem is formed, in which three regression equations are specified: a decision of R&D intensity, and a yes/no decision of location to conduct R&D together with a yes/no decision to invest in China Our results indicate that China investment and R&D intensity are positively related such that ODI in China helps to raise significantly a firm's R&D intensity as compared to the estimate if the endogeneity of China investment and the nature of data were not properly accounted.     

Empirical of the Taiwan stock index option price forecasting model – applied artificial neural network

This work presents a novel neural network model for forecasting option prices using past volatilities and other options market factors. Out of different approaches to estimating volatility in the option pricing model, this study uses backpropagation neural network to forecast prices for Taiwanese stock index options. The ability to develop accurate forecasts of grey prediction volatility enables practitioners to establish an appropriate hedging strategy at in-the-money option.     

公民权利意识与当代中国政治发展

政治文明建设离不开社会民众的参与,并需提高公民的权利意识、包括政府官员的责权意识。只有在权 利文化中,政治文明建设才能拓展。     

The dynamic evolution and technological diffusion in Taiwan's TFT-LCD industrial cluster: a network perspective

Industrial clusters evolve dynamically as the external environment changes. To better understand the nature of cluster evolution, which has nurtured economic growth in early 2000s, strategy and organisation scholars have attempted to unpack contributors to cluster evolution from the perspective of the ‘environmental uncertainty’ and ‘resource abundance’ effects. The paper adopts and extend an earlier extant model through empirical testing of the thin-film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) industrial cluster in Taiwan, a developing country. This study modifies the extant network model by adding a diffusion of technological innovation index to cluster evolving. Using the extended case study, the study examines the dynamic evolutionary process in the TFT-LCD industrial cluster. It was found that the evolution of the TFT-LCD industrial cluster resembles the theoretical argument in some respects. The characteristics of network change are modified according to these results. Implication for policymakers and decision-makers of developing countries are also discussed.     

Technological diversity,knowledge flow and capacity,and industrial innovation

ABSTRACT

This article examines the effect of technological diversity, knowledge flow and capacity on industrial innovation performance. We suggest that there is an inverse U-shaped relationship between technological diversity and industrial innovation performance. Moreover, knowledge flow and knowledge capacity are hypothesised as negatively moderating the effect of technological diversity on industrial innovation performance. We use negative binomial regression to test the hypotheses in a panel data of 360 industry-year cases and the findings support our prediction. Managerial implications and future research directions are discussed.