从国际关系角度看中国的能源安全

一、中国能源安全概述当代中国工业化、现代化发展势头强劲、雄心勃勃,但这些却是建立在产量、消费量过低的石油基础上的。1959年,中国的原油产量是373万吨,直到1963年中国才结束了长达一个世纪的依靠进口石油和石油产品的历史。也是在这一年,位于中国东北部的大庆油田生产原油430万吨,使全国石油产量上升至648万吨。从50年代到70年代早期,中国的能源一直都是自给自足。随着国际关系的发展,自给自足的能源利用方式已不能满足国家经济、社会发展的需要。苏联向中国提供石油和技术援助,帮助中国达到自给自足的计划饱受争议,1960年春,一直以来…     

Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime switching model

This paper considers the properties of Markov switching rational expectations (MSRE) models. We discuss possible solution concepts for MSRE models, distinguishing between stationary and bounded equilibria. For the case of models with one variable we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for uniqueness of a bounded equilibrium and we relate this condition to an alternative, the "generalized Taylor principle," suggested by Davig and Leeper. We provide examples of models with multiple bounded and multiple stationary equilibria which suggest that it might be more difficult to rule out non-fundamental equilibria in MSRE models than in the single regime case where the Taylor principle is known to guarantee local uniqueness.     

论民间组织的三维社会空间:实体、社会心理和虚拟网络

民间组织的社会空间存在实体、社会心理和虚拟网络三个维度。文章认为,在政府主导的强国家、弱社会传统体制迈向主要由国家、市场、社会构成的多元现代社会管理体制的过程中,往往是显性的民间社会组织的实体和制度空间受到关注,而对社会心理空间和虚拟网络空间及二者与实体制度空间的整合与平衡没有给予足够的重视,从而使得国家面临在自上而下层层传导中执行力下降、政策效能降低,体制认同递次减弱等多方压力。因此,一个良好的社会空间,需要调整国家—社会关系,实现实体制度、社会心理和虚拟网络等三个维度的对接、融合和集成。     

国际谈判对国内体制改革的溢出效应分析

总结入世5周年经验,根本可概括为"外塑形象,内促改革",即国际谈判对我国国内政治经济改革具有溢出效应。本文从溢出效应原理入手,以入世谈判为例来阐释国际谈判对国内体制改革的溢出机制及途径,以便为中国充分利用国际谈判深化改革提供建议。     

SIMULATION-BASED PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION FOR LARGE PORTFOLIOS WITH TRANSACTION COSTS

We consider a portfolio optimization problem where the investor's objective is to maximize the long-term expected growth rate, in the presence of proportional transaction costs. This problem belongs to the class of stochastic control problems with singular controls , which are usually solved by computing solutions to related partial differential equations called the free-boundary Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equations . The dimensionality of the HJB equals the number of stocks in the portfolio. The runtime of existing solution methods grow super-exponentially with dimension, making them unsuitable to compute optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with even four stocks. In this work we first present a boundary update procedure that converts the free boundary problem into a sequence of fixed boundary problems. Then by combining simulation with the boundary update procedure, we provide a computational scheme whose runtime, as shown by the numerical tests, scales polynomially in dimension. The results are compared and corroborated against existing methods that scale super-exponentially in dimension. The method presented herein enables the first ever computational solution to free-boundary problems in dimensions greater than three.     

国家技术安全初探——从利用外资角度

技术安全是个崭新的研究领域。在其定义和内容上，目前我国学者看法不一。冯鹏志等将技术视作宏观经济的影响变量之一，着重阐述科学技术发展对国家的社会、政治、经济、军事和信息等方面的安全所产生的具体影响。刘跃进认为其内容主要包括科技成果的安全、科技人才的安全和科技活动的安全。滕飞则认为技术安全是指在一定的社会环境条件下，以国家价值准则为依据对国家技术系统及其发展态势的一种动态描述。     

国家财政资助民办高校的政策选择

国家财政资助民办高校发展,最终打破公办高校的垄断地位,形成公办与民办高校公平竞争、共同发展的格局,是全球化时代提高我国高等教育水平、增强竞争力的根本出路。本文着重分析了当前国家制定对民办高校的财政资助政策的现实依据,认为目前国家的财政资助应首先选择其中的非营利性部分。     

Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts in monetary policy

This paper addresses two substantive issues: (1) Does the magnitude of the expectation effect of regime switching in monetary policy depend on a particular policy regime? (2) Under which regime is the expectation effect quantitatively important? Using two canonical DSGE models, we show that there exists asymmetry in the expectation effect across regimes. The expectation effect under the dovish policy regime is quantitatively more important than that under the hawkish regime. These results suggest that the possibility of regime shifts in monetary policy can have important effects on rational agents' expectation formation and on equilibrium dynamics. They offer a theoretical explanation for the empirical possibility that a policy shift from the dovish regime to the hawkish regime may not be the main source of substantial reductions in the volatilities of inflation and output.     

论受托人的委托权--兼评我国《信托法》第30条

传统信托法要求受托人必须亲自管理信托事务，此即“不得代理规则”。现代信托法突破了这一僵硬规则，赋予受托人以委托权。在责任承担问题上，虽然大陆法系、英美法系都采取的是过失责任原则。但在前提条件之设置上，两大法系有一定的差异。我国《信托法》在委托权行使之前提条件的设置上较为科学、但在费用负担、责任承担等方面存在一定的缺陷，应该予以修正。     

2007年节能降耗工作值得注意的几个问题

一、2006年没有完成当年单位GDP能耗下降4%目标的原因分析 2006年,是将节能降耗目标作为约束性指标的第一年,中央采取了一系列措施,收到了较好的效果,只是与原来预期的目标"有一定差距".造成节能降耗与预期目标有差距的原因是:产业结构不合理,重工业结构比重高;经济增长方式仍较粗放:节能投入、技术改造、财政税收和信贷政策等的完善和政策效果的显现需要一个过程.