Central Bank Intervention and Heterogeneous Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence from the Daily DEM/US-Dollar Exchange Rate

In this paper we propose a generalisation of the noise trader transmission mechanism to examine the impact of central bank intervention on exchange rates. Within a heterogeneous expectation exchange rate model intervention operations are supposed to provide support for chartist or fundamentalist forecasts, which forces portfolio managers to adjust their foreign currency positions. The empirical examination of the hypothesis is done by applying a Markov regime-switching approach to daily DEM/US-dollar exchange rates and intervention data of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1992. It is shown that chartists profits rose whenever these central banks intervened on the foreign exchange market. This is not true for those who follow a fundamentalist approach.JEL Classification Numbers: F31, C32, E58, G15     

Examining models of collusion: The market for lysine

We compare the experience with collusion in the market for lysine with the predictions of theory. The lysine market provides an ideal setting following the confessions of cartel participants in antitrust investigations. Data availability allows demand and cost functions to be estimated and observed mark-ups compared with predictions. We find that several integral aspects of collusion in the lysine market are not adequately addressed in the literature: the dynamics associated with entry and investment; persistent asymmetries between firms; the cartel's bargaining problem; and the existence of cheating in equilibrium. These issues are likely to have much wider applicability beyond the lysine market.     

Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach

In this paper, we examine if sustainability of the US fiscal deficit holds by means of studying the univariate properties of the difference between expenditures and public revenues using a methodology based on fractional processes. Furthermore, we incorporate the possibility of structural breaks in the deficit process. The results show that when allowing for a break in the mid-1970s, the public deficit in the US is an I(d) process with the fractional integration parameter d being slightly less than unity, implying that the fiscal deficit is mean reverting, and thus, sustainable, though the adjustment process towards equilibrium will take a very long time.     

Transaction Costs and the Present Value “Puzzle” of Farmland Prices

The present study introduces a theoretical land pricing model that allows for proportional transaction costs, and a corresponding kernel regression test. The model is tested with farmland returns data for 20 individual states, and also with two aggregate U.S. level series. The constant discount rate (CDR) present value model (PVM) of farmland prices is strongly rejected. However, it is found that the behavior of land prices and rents is consistent with the CDR-PVM in the presence of empirically observed values of transaction costs. Findings are very robust in that they apply to both individual state-level data and the U.S. aggregate-level series.     

World wage distribution

Two mechanisms are specified by which Hicks neutral efficiency differences between countries generate magnified international wage gaps. The theory is consistent with empirical observations on the price of non-internationally traded goods.     

Choosing governance modes for external technology sourcing

This study examines the effect of uncertainty on governance mode choice of interfirm relationships in new business development (NBD). We combine transaction cost economics and real options reasoning, arguing that in the early stages of NBD, where technological and market uncertainty are very high, companies are better off using governance modes that are reversible and involve a low level of commitment. When uncertainty has decreased as a result of prior R&D investments, transaction costs considerations become dominant and companies will shift towards governance modes that are less reversible and more hierarchical. We argue that technological distance leads to less hierarchical governance modes and prior cooperation between firms leads to subsequent choices for more hierarchical modes. Finally, we propose that higher exogenous uncertainty leads to less hierarchical governance modes.