The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment

Conventional wisdom has it that increasing price or exchange rate uncertainty will depress investment. Using the Dixit–Pindyck model, we find that there are situations where this will happen; and situations where it does not. There are threshold effects which allows us to identify when rising volatility would increase or decrease investment; and also to identify which types of industries would gain, and which would suffer, from a move to fixed exchange rates. This is important for monetary union in Europe since it is likely that, even if trade is insensitive to exchange rate volatility, investment with its longer horizon will be affected.     

Termination of the WGTA: An Examination of Factor Market Distortions, Input Subsidies anc Compensation

Input subsidies are common in North American agriculture and create production and trade distortions. As the theoretical discussion in this paper shows, the Crow transportation subsidy was no exception. The Crow benefit was eliminated in 1996 with the elimination of the Western Grain Transportation Act. Under the "pay the producer" approach, farmers in western Canada were compensated for the removal of the Crow subsidy, but the compensation was nowhere near that required to make grain and oilseed producers in western Canada at least as well off as before the Crow subsidy was removed. This policy change satisfied the compensation principle but not the Pareto principle. Reasons are given why this was the case, including very divergent views from various farm groups such as the National Farmers Union, the Alberta Cattle Commission, and the Alberta Barley Growers Association.
Les intrants du secteur agricole sont souvent subventionnés en Amérique du Nord, ce qui fausse la production et les échanges. Comme l'illustre la discussion dans cet article, il en a été ainsi pour le tarif du Pas-du-Nid-du-Corbeau, dans les transports. Cette subvention a été abolie en 1996 avec l'abrogation de Loi sur le transport du grain de l'Ouest. Les producteurs de céréales et d'oléagineux de l'Ouest canadien ont été indemnisés, mais la somme qui leur a été versée était largement insuffisante pour qu'ils restent aussi bien lotis qu'avant l'abolition de la subvention. La nouvelle politique a satisfait le principe de la compensation, mais pas celui de Pareto. On explique le pourquoi de cette situation, l'une des raisons étant les points de vue tràs divergents de diverses associations agricoles.     

Estimation Optimality of Corrected AIC and Modified Cp in Linear Regression

Model selection criteria often arise by constructing unbiased or approximately unbiased estimators of measures known as expected overall discrepancies (Linhart & Zucchini, 1986, p. 19). Such measures quantify the disparity between the true model (i.e., the model which generated the observed data) and a fitted candidate model. For linear regression with normally distributed error terms, the "corrected" Akaike information criterion and the "modified" conceptual predictive statistic have been proposed as exactly unbiased estimators of their respective target discrepancies. We expand on previous work to additionally show that these criteria achieve minimum variance within the class of unbiased estimators.     

China's soft landing: Too good to be true?

Chinese inflation reached a peak of almost 30% in late 1994 but has since fallen back to below 10%. Growth has eased in response to weakening demand but the slowdown has been very modest, with growth of around 10% recorded to last year. In this article, Hong Bai and Andrew Sentance critically examine this apparent "soft landing" and suggest that the reduction in inflation may be more apparent than real.     

Gambling as a Base for Hypothecated Taxation: The UK's National Lottery and Electronic Gaming Machines in Australia

Gambling is now a large revenue source for many governments due to its ease of implementation, popular appeal and the high real tax rate it can bear (up to 40%). It is often promoted by spending on 'good causes' designated as 'additional' to existing government activity. This article examines the UK's National Lottery and Electronic Gaming Machines (EGMs) in Queensland, Australia and shows that, in both cases, gambling taxes are often diverted into education, health and social and economic development and therefore potentially substitute for taxation raised elsewhere in the economy. In addition, there is evidence that gambling's taxation implications (against income) are doubly regressive, taking disproportionately from lower income groups and giving to those better off.     

The sourcing of technological knowledge: distributed innovation processes and dynamic change

This paper outlines the knowledge and technology sourcing practices of a range of key firms and organisations across the UK based on primary research, and analyses the key factors related to managing the technological knowledge boundaries of the firm. In particular, the paper considers the dynamic dimension considerations to such issues. As such it outlines important differences between short and long time horizons, before analysing in more detail some of the implications for firms of technological change over the long term. The paper seeks to highlight the importance of the time dimension in helping to explain why and how firms source technological knowledge externally and how they align their sourcing activities to their strategies associated with developing current and future capabilities.     

The Service Sector is Also Productive

Does growth come from manufacturing or services? Walter Eltis, Director General of NEDO, and Andrew Murfin, argue there is no evidence that manufacturing is more important as a source of economic growth than services.