Where are we in the political economy of reform?

We review the experiences of developing countries with market-oriented reforms, using the tools of modern political economy. We impose intellectual discipline by requiring that actors behave rationally using available information and that basic economic relationships such as budget constraints be accounted for. We attempt to integrate two approaches, one based on dynamic games played by interest groups, with one that focus on limited information and the dynamics of learning.

We describe the “starting point” as the set of “old” policies and we attempt to explain the dynamics (political, economic and informational) that lead to reform (section II). We analyze strategies for reformers subject to political constraints (section Ш). We evaluate the aggregate and distributional costs of reforms, emphasizing the importance of looking at the right counterfactuals (section IV).

We conclude by pointing to the challenges ahead: the second-stage institutional reforms necessary to take off from underdevelopment.     

Productivity,Infrastructure and Human Capital in the Spanish Regions

We revisit the cointegration relation among output, physical capital, human capital, public capital and labour for 17 Spanish regions observed over the period 1964–2011. Our approach is based on the estimation of a panel data model where cross-section dependence is allowed among the members of the panel. The paper emphasizes the idea that common factors capturing, for instance, total factor productivity, should be accounted for when estimating the parameters. We use several proposals to estimate the long-run relation among these variables, which render consistent and efficient estimates of the parameters.     

Does the exchange rate pass-through into prices change when inflation targeting is adopted? The Peruvian case study between 1994 and 2007

This paper analyzes whether the exchange rate pass-through into prices changed when the inflation targeting scheme was adopted in Peru. First, a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is simulated, which shows that adopting this scheme induces an increase in exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, applying the theory of the currency denomination of international trade, it is demonstrated that increased exchange rate volatility reduces the share of firms that set their prices in foreign currency. Given that the pass-though has a direct relationship with this share, it is shown that adopting inflation targeting generates a pass-through contraction. Second, we empirically test whether the Peruvian Central Bank’s decision to adopt inflation targeting in January 2002 actually had an effect on the pass-through estimating a time-varying vector autoregressive model which allows for an asymmetrical estimation of the pass-through. It provides parameters for both the pre and post inflation targeting regimes based on the assumption that the transition from one regime to the other is smooth. An analysis of the generalized impulse response functions reveals that the decision to adopt inflation targeting significantly decreased the exchange rate pass-throughs into import, producer, and consumer prices. The results are consistent with economic theory and are robust to the specification of parameters of the model.     

Modeling crime in Japan

This study aims at identifying the factors of aggregate and disaggregate crime categories in Japan over the period 1964–2009. All crime categories are related to police outlays, police numbers, unemployment, divorce and urbanization rates. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to test the existence of a long-run relationship amongst the variables. Cointegration analysis yields that the main deterrent effect on crime is the police presence and this factor is further confirmed by the real police outlays. As for the essential cause of crime, urbanization stands as the leading factor which is followed by divorce and unemployment rates. Policy implications are discussed.     

The cyclical behavior of bank capital buffers in an emerging economy: Size does matter

Using a panel of Colombian banks and quarterly data between 1996:1 and 2010:3, we study the relationship between short-run adjustments in bank capital buffers and the business cycle. We follow a partial adjustment framework and control for several variables that have been identified as important determinants of bank capital buffers in previous studies, and find that bank capital buffers vary over the business cycle. We are able to identify a negative co-movement of capital buffers and the business cycle. However, we also find that capital buffers of small and large banks behave asymmetrically during the business cycle. While the former appear to be constant over time, once the appropriate set of control variables is used, the latter present a countercyclical behavior. Our results suggest the possible need of the implementation of regulatory policy measures in developing countries.     

Determinants of early internationalization of new firms: the case of Chile

The aim of this article is to analyze the factors related to the early internationalization of new firms in Chile. We grouped the internationalization driver factors into three categories: individual, organizational, and firm-environmental factors. Using a sample of 374 entrepreneurs from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data and performing a logistic regression model, we found that owner-manager’ high educational levels, opportunity-oriented motivation, new technology use, and activities related to extractive sectors (e.g., farming, forestry, fishing, and mining) contribute to a higher likelihood of early firm internationalizing. The implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Linking human resources practices with performance: the simultaneous mediation of collective affective commitment and human capital

Independent streams of research propose that human capital and employee motivation serve as mediation mechanisms that explain the relationship between high-performance work systems (HPWS) and performance. A multiple mediation analysis is used to test employee perceptions of subsets of HPWS practices, which emphasize the enhancement of employees’ abilities, motivation and opportunities, as predictors of business units’ performance, when mediated by human capital and motivational paths, in a sample of business units in Chilean organizations. Collective affective commitment is used as proxy for the motivational path, and differentiated from other measures used to test such path. Results indicate that personnel selection, performance evaluation and training, job descriptions, and empowerment practices make simultaneous contributions to the human capital and affective commitment paths. The partial mediation effects observed suggests that additional mechanisms contributing to the HPWS–performance relationship should be explored. However, compensation and incentives practices only contribute to the motivational path, while the human capital path and direct effects are non-significant. Results support the complementarity of both mediation mechanisms, the differential effects of subsets of HR practices on the mediation paths, and the significance of these effects at a business unit aggregate level of analysis. Theoretical contributions, practical implications and limitations are discussed.