Stock Price Reactions to Wire News from the European Central Bank: Evidence from Changes in the Sentiment Tone and International Market Indexes

International Advances in Economic Research - This paper examines the link between changes in the sentiment tone with respect to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcements and stock...     

Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve for the U.S. and various European countries. In this paper we use data from the European Union (EU15), from 1994:Q1 to 2008:Q3. We use the European Central Bank’s euro area yield spreads to predict European real GDP deviations from the long-run trend. We also augment the models tested with non monetary policy variables: the unemployment and a composite European stock price index. The methodology employed is a probit model of the inverse cumulative distribution function of the standard distribution using several formal forecasting and goodness of fit evaluation tests. The results show that the yield curve augmented with the composite stock index has significant forecasting power in terms of the EU15 real output.     

The Timeliness of Income Recognition by European Companies: An Analysis of Institutional and Market Complexity

This study examines international differences in the asymmetric timeliness of accounting earnings by modelling international exposure to different jurisdictions as a firm-specific effect, using an index of regulatory complexity that relates to conditions in each of the capital markets in which the firm's equity is listed. The companies investigated are those with shares cross-listed on European stock exchanges, some of which are also listed in New York. Variation across jurisdictions and markets with respect to earnings timeliness and conservatism can be explained in part as an interaction of market effects and regulatory effects, with some evidence of opposition between the two, and the sensitivity of earnings to stock price changes shows a common, converging trend towards greater accounting conservatism in Europe.     

Infrastructure Privatization and Regulation: Promises and Perils

Infrastructure is crucial for generating growth, alleviatingpoverty, and increasing international competitiveness. For muchof the twentieth century and in most countries, the networkutilities that delivered infrastructure services—suchas electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, railroads,and water supply—were vertically and horizontally integratedstate monopolies. But this approach often resulted in extremelyweak services, especially in developing and transition economiesand especially for poor people. Common problems included lowproductivity, high costs, bad quality, insufficient revenue,and shortfalls in investment. Over the past two decades manycountries have implemented far-reaching institutional reforms—restructuring,privatizing, and establishing new approaches to regulation.This article identifies the challenges involved in this massivepolicy redirection within the historical, economic, and institutionalcontext of developing and transition economies. It also reviewsthe outcomes of these policy changes, including their distributionalconsequences—especially for poor households and otherdisadvantaged groups. Drawing on a range of international experiencesand empirical studies, it recommends directions for future reformsand research to improve infrastructure performance.      

Liquidity uncertainty and intermediation

The paper performs a welfare comparison between demand deposit and equity contracts in the presence of intrinsic aggregate uncertainty. In this framework, the welfare dominance of deposit contracts emerges under corner preferences. It is shown that aggregate uncertainty creates high price volatility of ex-dividend equity claims traded in a secondary market and the resulting consumption allocations offer less risk-sharing opportunities to risk-averse consumers than tailor-made deposit contracts. The contingency of early payoffs on depositors’ withdrawal order reinforces the welfare performance of deposit contracts, whereas costly liquidation of productive long-term investments deteriorates their welfare performance relative to equity contracts.     

The certification role of insider participation in PIPEs

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - In this paper we provide new insights into the motives underlying insider participation in private investments in public equity (PIPEs) by...     

Bayesian Modelling of Outstanding Liabilities Incorporating Claim Count Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper deals with the prediction of the amount of outstanding automobile claims that an insurance company will pay in the near future. We consider various competing models using Bayesian theory and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Claim counts are used to add a further hierarchical stage in the model with log-normally distributed claim amounts and its corresponding state space version. This way, we incorporate information from both the outstanding claim amounts and counts data resulting in new model formulations. Implementation details and illustrations with real insurance data are provided.     

Inside the black box of high-growth firms in a crisis-hit economy: corporate strategy,employee human capital and R&D capabilities

In an attempt to open the black box of high-growth firms within turbulent economic environments, this paper explores the role of corporate strategy, employee human capital and R&D capabilities in achieving exceptional growth performance in a crisis-hit economy. Relative and absolute growth measures based on both employment and sales are computed utilizing survey data on 1500 firms in the midst of the Greek crisis. Our findings indicate that adopting a geographical diversification strategy significantly increases the likelihood of becoming a fast-growing firm, irrespective of the growth metric used. Entering in diverse product markets and taking advantage of R&D capabilities appear to additionally contribute to relative employment change in HGFs of smaller size. Based on the absolute employment growth indicator, we provide some evidence that HGFs of larger size are able to grow fast through product diversification, acquiring other firms or by investing on training low-skilled employees. Nevertheless, hiring already highly educated persons seems to matter only for sales HGFs, while research collaborations are found to negatively affect the probability of growing fast in terms of sales.

     

THE ECONOMICS OF HEALTH AND SAFETY AT WORK: AN INTERDICIPLINARY REVIEW OF THE THEORY AND POLICY

Abstract This paper engages in an interdisciplinary survey of the current state of knowledge related to the theory, determinants and consequences of occupational safety and health (OSH). It first describes the fundamental theoretical construct of compensating wage differentials, which is used by economists to understand the optimal provision of OSH in a perfectly competitive labour market. The plethora of incentives faced by workers and firms in job and insurance markets that determine the ultimate level of OSH are discussed in detail. The extensive empirical evidence from the hedonic wage and stated choice approaches used to assess the value of OSH is reviewed. The causes of inefficiency and inequity in the market for OSH, such as externalities, moral hazard in compensation insurance, systematic biases in individual risk perception/well‐being and labour market segregation are subsequently examined. The implications of government intervention and regulation for tackling the aforementioned inefficiencies in OSH are then considered. Finally, the survey identifies areas of future research interests and suggests indicators and priorities for policy initiatives that can improve the health and safety of workers in modern job markets.     

Hard,soft or ambidextrous? Which influence style promotes managers’ task performance and the role of political skill

Abstract

Ambidexterity at the manager level focuses on the crucial, but underexplored, role of managers’ knowledge, skills, and behaviors to address competing demands and promote organizational ambidexterity. As such, to successfully complete their assigned duties, managers need to employ the appropriate interpersonal style and calibrate their behavior to different contextual demands. This study highlights the role of the individual in the ambidexterity process by introducing the concept of influence tactic ambidexterity, to denote the frequent use of both hard and soft influence and investigating its role on task performance. Drawing on the literature on ambidexterity and HRM, we analyze data from a sample of 172 middle managers and their corresponding 68 supervisors working for multinational organizations, and provide evidence that influence tactic ambidexterity relates to higher levels and less variation in managers’ task performance compared to the sole use of either hard or soft tactics. Our findings also show that political skill positively moderates the relationship between influence tactic ambidexterity and a manager’s task performance. Therefore, this study suggests that influence tactic ambidexterity and political skill can be considered valuable HR assets for managers.