2008:全球经济预测和中期展望

一、全球经济展望 实际上要想做得精确非常容易,但是要想做正确是很难的,经济学家在社会当中只会"正确"两字,所以我想给大家介绍各种各样的想法,并进行讨论,你们可以自己判断经济的前景到底如何,以及我们面临怎样的风险.     

北极冰川融化影响几何？

北极冰川融化将使跨北极通航成为可能，运输公司可减少40％的航运距离。马六甲海峡也将不再垄断国际通运。国际经济将进一步融合。     

What Prompts the People＇s Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance？ Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People＇s Bank of China （PBC） as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC＇ s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC＇s policy changes.     

俄罗斯的外国直接投资增势减弱

2003年俄罗斯引进的外国直接投资共40亿美元,大部分投向石油天然气领域。这在石油天然气领域的投资能带来丰厚利润的情况下难以避免,但不见得是件好事。投资是一种资本运营,投向俄罗斯的资本能否很快变现返还,这是很难确定的事。须知,2003年俄罗斯的债券发行已增至80多亿美     

全球存款保险制度：如何运作？

1.简介 在过去的二十年中,一股银行体制危机浪潮席卷全球。这股浪潮袭击了发达国家和发展中国家,在93个国家造成了112起体制性危机,在46个国家中造成51起边线危机。 大规模银行危机的扩散是极具破坏性的,且代价昂贵。储户失去了使用他们资金的权利,     

QUALITY: NUMBER ONE GOAL FOREVERY MANAGER

CityManagerRichardPicherackleadstheadministrationoftheCityofEdmonton.HereportsdirectlytoCityCOuncil,andisresponsealforcarryingoutthedecisionsmadebyCityCouncil.TheCityofEdmontonsmissionstatemintis"toservethecitionsofEdmontonbyprovidinghigh-quality,cost-effectiveservicestomeetexistingandemergingcivicneedsconsistentwithcouncil,8policies."Severalyearsop,thecity'sadministrationintroducedqualityprocessesintotheworkplace.Sincethen,qUalityhasassUmedincreasinglygreaterinportacetotheadministuation…