The hidden traps in decision making

Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighted. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. The way the human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa examine eight psychological traps that are particularly likely to affect the way we make business decisions: The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. The statusquo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situation--even when better alternatives exist. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. The overconfidence trap makes us overestimate the accuracy of our forecasts. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. The best way to avoid all the traps is awareness--forewarned is forearmed. But executives can also take other simple steps to protect themselves and their organizations from the various kinds of mental lapses. The authors show how to take action to ensure that important business decisions are sound and reliable.     

实施标准化生产提高农产品质量安全——谈食用菌国家级标准化示范区创建实践与成效

近年来,金坛开展了食用菌国家级标准化示范区建设,取得了较好成效,并建立长效管理机制,有力推动我市食用菌产业转型升级和又好又快发展.本文通过对建立标准化示范区的实践阐述,证明创建农业标准化示范区,实施标准化生产是提高农产品质量安全的最佳途径.     

项目借款的还本付息方法及其选择

筹措足够的资金,是规划和建设工程项目的先决条件。筹资的途径虽然各种各样,但是从企业的立场看,不外乎自有资金和借款两种方式。在西方,叫作增股融资和借款融资。由于借款具有很大的风险性,因此,应当在项目规划阶段,在多种可能的贷款来源中,选择最优惠的贷款或贷款组合;在多种还本付息方法中,选择最有利的方法或方法组合,以使企业借款的风险减少到最低限度。本文提供了一种选择贷款来源和安排还本付息计划的方法。一、还本付息方法借款融资是从他人处借贷资金。借贷资金的重要原则是有偿性。借方不但要偿还本金,还要付给利息、管理费、代理费、承担费及其他杂费。其中利息是借款的主要代价,其他费用也可以折算为等价的利息。在下面的讨论中,利息中也包括了借方应付的其他费用。     

一个纵向结合冶金公司的最优分散管理

一、引论本文专门讨论工业连续生产过程的分散管理问题,在连续生产过程中,生产的某一个阶段的输出是下一阶段的输入。我们仅以提炼冶金过程为例。冶金部门的大多数公司是纵向结合的,它们进行各种必要的操作,使铁矿石从初始状态转化成一系列半成品。结合成为一个整体的动机显然是为了降低成本,在原材料不足时能保     

“最佳”CFO的特质

市场混乱让CFO的更替如走马灯一般频繁,也改变了备受追捧的财务技能。动荡带来变化,市场动荡也造成了企业高级管理层的更迭。     

前南峪:高扬集体经济旗帜

河北省邢台县浆水镇前南峪村是中国人民抗日军政大学旧址,总面积9700亩,其中耕地746亩,宜林山场面积8300亩,人均6分田、7亩山。改革开放以来,该村坚持发展壮大集体经济,走共同富裕之路,靠科技兴山、生态富民,逐步走上了一条经济     

我国金融发展与就业关系实证分析

金融发展与就业关系的模型显示,金融发展对就业具有积极的推动作用,不同金融指标与就业的关系不同,金融深化和技术进步指标对就业的促进作用最为显著.从总体上看,我国金融发展对就业的促进作用并不显著,加快金融深化和金融体制改革有助于改善我国的就业状况.