2008:全球经济预测和中期展望

一、全球经济展望 实际上要想做得精确非常容易,但是要想做正确是很难的,经济学家在社会当中只会"正确"两字,所以我想给大家介绍各种各样的想法,并进行讨论,你们可以自己判断经济的前景到底如何,以及我们面临怎样的风险.     

科教兴企天地宽

科教兴企天地宽□轩怀安徽省蚌埠市风机厂厂长何长胜是中国机械工程学会管道输送专业委员会委员，曾参加过国家贸易委员会培训司和国家技术监督局质量司联合举办的（９４—９５）全国企业领导质量管理和质量保证知识培训，成绩优异。其《离心风机串联运行的效果分析》等多...     

中国"以电子政务拉动信息产业发展"政策的再评估

电子政务是中国信息化战略的重中之重，但其实际发展与预期间存在着明显差距。本文以中国“以电子政务拉动信息产业发展”政策为研究重点，把这一政策放在中国信息化历史中加以考察，分析中国信息化新阶段ICT市场的新变化和新挑战，针对电子政务实践与预期间的差距，对该政策提出我们的看法。     

北极冰川融化影响几何？

北极冰川融化将使跨北极通航成为可能，运输公司可减少40％的航运距离。马六甲海峡也将不再垄断国际通运。国际经济将进一步融合。     

What Prompts the People＇s Bank of China to Change Its Monetary Policy Stance？ Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model

In the present paper, we model the policy stance of the People＇s Bank of China （PBC） as a latent variable, and the discrete changes in the reserve requirement ratio, policy interest rates, and the scale of open market operations are taken as signals of movement of this latent variable. We run a discrete choice regression that relates these observed indicators of policy stance to major trends of macroeconomic and financial developments, which are represented by common factors extracted from a large number of variables. The predicted value of the estimated model can then be interpreted as the implicit policy stance of the PBC. In a second step, we estimate how much of the variation in the PBC＇ s implicit stance can be explained by measures of its policy objectives on inflation, growth and financial stability. We find that deviations of CPI inflation from an implicit target and deviations of broad money growth from the announced targets, but not output gaps, figure significantly in the PBC＇s policy changes.     

全球存款保险制度：如何运作？

1.简介 在过去的二十年中,一股银行体制危机浪潮席卷全球。这股浪潮袭击了发达国家和发展中国家,在93个国家造成了112起体制性危机,在46个国家中造成51起边线危机。 大规模银行危机的扩散是极具破坏性的,且代价昂贵。储户失去了使用他们资金的权利,