Assessing community-wide outcomes of prevention marketing campaigns through telephone surveys

This random sample survey assesses the outcomes of the community-wide HIV prevention marketing campaigns for adolescents through telephone surveys, as well as the decisions that were made to address these concerns. The study employed repeated cross-sectional analysis to collect data from 1402 adolescents over a 23-month period. Likewise, a dual sampling strategy combined with Random Digit Dialing with Listed Household samples were used. The study was conducted in a manner that protects the anonymity, privacy, and confidentiality; and at the same time, gathers an adequate response rate. Results of the study confirm that the success of the evaluation program depended on the adequacy of the response rate, which includes the use of advanced letters and toll-free phone line, as well as sensitivity to the needs and concerns of the target population. The success that was achieved is still inadequate since the results confirm the challenge of developing feasible, affordable, tailored techniques for measuring risk behavior change in members of these groups.     

Finding your next core business

How do you know when your core needs to change? And how do you determine what should replace it? From an in-depth study of 25 companies, the author, a strategy consultant, has discovered that it's possible to measure the vitality of a business's core. If it needs reinvention, he says, the best course is to mine hidden assets. Some of the 25 companies were in deep crisis when they began the process of redefining themselves. But, says Zook, management teams can learn to recognize early signs of erosion. He offers five diagnostic questions with which to evaluate the customers, key sources of differentiation, profit pools, capabilities, and organizational culture of your core business. The next step is strategic regeneration. In four-fifths of the companies Zook examined, a hidden asset was the centerpiece of the new strategy. He provides a map for identifying the hidden assets in your midst, which tend to fall into three categories: undervalued business platforms, untapped insights into customers, and underexploited capabilities. The Swedish company Dometic, for example, was manufacturing small absorption refrigerators for boats and RVs when it discovered a hidden asset: its understanding of, and access to, customers in the RV market. The company took advantage of a boom in that market to refocus on complete systems for live-in vehicles. The Danish company Novozymes, which produced relatively low-tech commodity enzymes such as those used in detergents, realized that its underutilized biochemical capability in genetic and protein engineering was a hidden asset and successfully refocused on creating bioengineered specialty enzymes. Your next core business is not likely to announce itself with fanfare. Use the author's tools to conduct an internal audit of possibilities and pinpoint your new focus.     

论我国当前经济政策贯彻落实的关键所在

在转轨期,政府对经济的管理是通过经济政策的贯彻执行表现出来的。经济政策的贯彻落实包含四个环节。马克思主义的立场、观点、方法是确立政策思想的锐利武器。政策思想必须"硬化"为"可操作"、"可观察"的政策目标。政策的制定必须设计好通过微观单位利益最大化行为实现政策目标的机制。通过对政策效果的检查来进行政策的调整。从实施政策的全过程看,就当前而言,"硬化"政策目标、制定注重实现机制的政策,是提高政策效果的关键所在。     

时间数列预测的传统分解法

现在我们可以总结一下在管理工作中应用预测分解法必须遵循的步骤了。头三个步骤是识别和分解季节因素、长期趋势和循环因素,末了一个步骤是我们在预测中实际应用的三个因素。1.测定季节因素:先对每一个数值计算12个月的移动平均数和12个月的中心化移动平均数,以及该数值对平均数的比值。然后再计算每月比值的居中平均数,并对它进行调整而取得每月的季节指数。2.测定长期趋势:这需要对数据配上一条趋势线。如果假定的是直线趋势,可以采用图解法或一元回归法,为长期趋势方程y=a bt求得a值和b值。3.测定循环因素:由于移动平均数已消去了季节因素和随机波动,可以把移动平均值除以长期趋势值,以测定每个观察值的循环因素。4.对预定时期的情况作预测:从所要预测的时期开始,可以根据调整过的季节指数确定当期的季节因素。把时期代入长期趋势方程中的t[参见式(7—6)——译者注],就能测定长期趋势值。循环因素可从这种因素的最近样式来估计。这样,预定期的预测值就是:X=季节因素×长期趋势×循环因素。运用这些步骤,我们就能对未来任何一个季度或月份作出预测。还要提一下的是,循环因素的确定是运用这种预测方法时最困难的方面。如果有解决这个问题的秘诀的话,那也许是要拥有足够数量的历史数据,使管理者能发现何处是循环样式重复的起点。然后利用该循环样式作向导,来预测未来任何时期中的循环样式。可是要反映管理人员对循环样式可能发生何种变化所作的判断,作某些调整无疑仍然是必要的。     

Product development of branded, packaged household goods in Britain, 1870-1914: Colman's, Reckitt's, and Lever Brothers

The three companies whose history forms the subject of thisarticle became leaders in a sector of the British economy—consumergoods—generally regarded as one of the most successfulin the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Productinnovation and development, achieved internally or through acquisition,enabled these firms to become market leaders. We therefore analyzethe processes of product development within the three firms,using a systematic framework that allows us to offer generalizationsabout the process of product innovation and development in theconsumer goods sector in Britain. We conclude that gradual modification,rather than revolutionary innovation, was characteristic ofproduct development in the household goods trade, and that technologywas less important for success than marketing skill.