Forecasting the real output using fractionally integrated techniques

The annual structure of the real GDP in the UK, France, Germany and Italy is examined by means of fractionally integrated techniques. Using a version of a testing procedure due to Robinson (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84, –37, 1994), it is shown that the series can be specified in terms of I(d?) statistical models with d higher than 1. Thus, the series are nonstationary and non-mean-reverting. The forecasting properties of the selected models for each country are also examined.     

The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests

Recent research has reported the lack of correct size in stationarity test for PPP deviations within a linear framework. However, theoretically well motivated non-linear models, such as the ESTAR, appear to parsimoniously fit the PPP data and provide an explanation for the PPP ‘puzzle’. Employing Monte Carlo experiments the size and power of the non-linear tests are analysed against a variety of nonstationary hypotheses. Aslo the ESTAR model is fitted to data from high inflation economies. The results provide further support for ESTAR specification.     

Oligopoly and Merger: A Simple Classroom Game

Professor Miller describes a game which has been used in intermediate price theory courses as well as in introductory classes. Two versions are presented—a duopoly and a six-firm market, both with undifferentiated product and a known market demand schedule. Students are also asked to make a monopoly of the six firms by forming a trust or holding company. Miller contends that the game is more stimulating than lectures aud suspects that it will result in longer retention.     

Ceteris Paribus Methodology and Computerized Economics-Business Models

Professor Stanford is critical of computer programs that have been developed for use in economics and business courses. He admits to having “mixed feelings” about the use of computer models as classroom teaching devices, but recognizes their great potential. His fear is that the ceteris paribus methodology has not been adequately implemented when computer models have been constructed for use in the classroom. Consequently, he has constructed a set of computerized game models which feature “options for varying degrees of complexity.” These models, which permit progression from the simple to the complex, and which enable instructors to demonstrate the effects of changing variables, are brielly described in this article.     

Keith Robinson and Robert Wilson,eds. Extending Economics Within the Curriculum.

Sussman examines the effectiveness of a personalized system of instruction in an introductory course in economics and suggests that personalized instruction may be a viable alternative to the teacher-dominated lecture system widely used in teaching the first course. The results of the author's small scale study may encourage others to experiment with this little-used method of instruction.     

A Statistical Interpretation of Student Evaluation Feedback

This article deals with the same basic subject—student evaluation of teaching—covered by Marlin and Niss in this issue. Dilts's approach is quite different, however. Readers will want to compare the model he used with that suggested by Marlin and Niss. One of Dilts's major findings is that “student course evaluations are directly associated with grade expectations and inversely associated with the degree to which the course is required.” In his paper he proposes a method that should help “to control for factors that distort evaluation.”     

Gender Differences in Economic Knowledge: A Reevaluation of the Evidence

This study examines the importance and significance of male-female differences in understanding and learning economics and attempts to assess whether the use of multiple choice questions, rather than essay questions, contributes to these measured differences. Do multiple choice questions favor men with their possibly superior spatial and numerical skills? Do essay questions favor women with their possibly superior verbal skills? Evidence based on a study involving 589 students using an examination including both types of questions is analyzed in this article.     

Response to L. Scott Miller

L. Scott Miller confronts us with the inadequacy of the schooling establishment's response to the educational needs of the special and rapidly growing group of minority students. Restructuring is urged as the most effective approach for meeting the urgent needs of disadvantaged at-risk students. Two experienced and prominent economics educators comment on the challenge and policy proposals.     

Women and Minorities in Introductory Economics Textbooks: 1974 to 1984

The authors conducted a painstaking review of widely used economics textbooks to determine if or how issues relating to race and gender are treated. In doing so, the authors also shed light on the nature of the treatment of these issues.     

Misinterpretations of the Second Fundamental Theorem of Welfare Economics: Barriers to Better Economic Education

Textbooks regularly interpret the second fundamental theorem of welfare economics by claiming it asserts that any desired Pareto optimum can be achieved by market prices.