LABOUR MOBILITY AND TRANS‐TASMAN CURRENCY UNION*

The prospect of a common currency for Australia and New Zealand has been canvassed by senior poli‐ticians and bureaucrats, and has been the subject of academic debate. According to Mundell (1961 ), a high degree of internal labour mobility is a desirable feature of currency unions. This study looks at the extent to which long‐term migration between Australia and New Zealand responds to output shocks. Estimated VAR models and panel Granger‐causality tests demonstrate that shocks to relative per capita output have a significant and symmetrical impact on migration flows between Australia and New Zealand, and most of the impact is felt after about one year. Separating the shocks to Australia and New Zealand shows that ‘pull’ effects are more important than ‘push’ effects. Additionally, the trajectory of the Australian economy proves particularly influential for the choice of New Zealand emigrants. Although permanent migration responds intuitively to the state of the economy in Australia and New Zealand, the level of these migration flows is low in comparison to Australian inter‐state migration; yet it is high in relation to any third country.     

Sir William Petty,Ireland, and the making of a political economist, 1653–871

This paper offers a reassessment of the origins and derivation of many of Sir William Petty's economic ideas, based on an analysis of his unpublished papers. Petty's archive makes clear what a large part Ireland played in his writings, and it is suggested that this preoccupation is essential to an appreciation of him as an economist. It also demonstrates the point that Petty was not principally a theorist but rather a practical political economist whose schemes for the enrichment of the king's dominions were inspired by the underdevelopment which he experienced at first hand in Ireland.     

Are Bank Holding Companies a Source of Strength to Their Banking Subsidiaries?

I document evidence that a bank affiliated with a multi-bank holding company (MBHC) is significantly safer than either a stand-alone bank or a bank affiliated with a one-bank holding company. Not only does MBHC affiliation reduce the probability of future financial distress, but distressed affiliated banks are also more likely to receive capital injections, recover more quickly, and are less likely to fail over the next year. Moreover, the measured benefits of affiliation are much larger than those that existed before recent reforms of bank holding company regulation, suggesting that much of the observed benefit can be attributed to regulation and not the market.     

高技术产业技术投入和生产率增长之间关系的研究

本研究通过一个基于内生增长理论的生产函数模型分析了中国高技术产业行业部门水平上各类技术投入和生产率变动之间的关系.文章使用永续盘存法估算了资本存量和R&D存量,估计了R&D存量和其他知识存量的产出弹性系数,结果显示,当考虑各类技术投入的单独作用时,R&D与国内购入技术的作用比较显著,而当考虑各类技术的交互影响时,R&D与从国外引进技术的合作对生产率的作用非常显著,反映了它们之间的互补关系,即R&D具有提高进口技术吸收能力的作用.     

Repo Runs: Evidence from the Tri‐Party Repo Market

The repo market has been viewed as a potential source of financial instability since the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis, based in part on findings that margins increased sharply in a segment of this market. This paper provides evidence suggesting that there was no system‐wide run on repo. Using confidential data on tri‐party repo, a major segment of this market, we show that, the level of margins and the amount of funding were surprisingly stable for most borrowers during the crisis. However, we also document a sharp decline in the tri‐party repo funding of Lehman in September 2008.     

Financial Constraints, Competition, and Hedging in Industry Equilibrium

We analyze the hedging decisions of firms, within an equilibrium setting that allows us to examine how a firm's hedging choice depends on the hedging choices of its competitors. Within this equilibrium some firms hedge while others do not, even though all firms are ex ante identical. The fraction of firms that hedge depends on industry characteristics, such as the number of firms in the industry, the elasticity of demand, and the convexity of production costs. Consistent with prior empirical findings, the model predicts that there is more heterogeneity in the decision to hedge in the most competitive industries.