Spending,saving, or investing? Risk management in sixteenth‐century Dutch households1

In the past one of the main challenges to households was that of coping with adversity. War, plague, famine, and flood were a constant threat, and could reduce what little improvements families had made in productivity. Economic growth therefore required a means of absorbing external adversities. To see how well late medieval households coped with adversity, this investigation focuses on the households of a small town and its surroundings in early modern Holland. Our findings reveal that several severe external shocks around 1500 had little effect on the general level or distribution of wealth, which suggests that certain forms of insurance may have protected the population. The results show that households increasingly invested in capital markets rather than employing such techniques as scattered holdings and hoarding. This fact indicates that such investment played a vital role in a household's risk aversion strategy. The change from unproductive to more productive risk‐aversion strategies also provides some clues about progress with respect to insurance during Holland's financial revolution.     

Private,Social, and Self‐Insurance for Long‐Term Care in the Presence of Family Help

We study the political determination of the level of social long‐term care insurance when voters can top up with private insurance, saving and family help. Agents differ in income, probability of becoming dependent and of receiving family help, and amount of family help received. Social insurance redistributes across income and risk levels, while private insurance is actuarially fair. The income‐to‐dependency probability ratio of agents determines whether they prefer social or private insurance. Family support crowds out the demand for both social and, especially, private insurance, as strong prospects of family help drive the demand for private insurance to zero. The availability of private insurance decreases the demand for social insurance but need not decrease its majority‐chosen level. A majority of voters would oppose banning private insurance.     

城乡物流一体化背景下供应链协同管理研究

供应链协同是增强供应链整体竞争的重要手段。城乡物流一体化下供应链具有复杂性、动态性和离散性的特点。为改善城乡供应链的协同效果,文章从战略层、管理层及操作层三个层面提出了供应链协同的管理对策。     

Inefficient Public Provision in a Repeated Elections Model

We consider a dynamic setting with no policy commitment. Two parties that compete for election must choose the level of provision of a public good as well as the tax payment needed to finance it. The cost of producing the good may be high or low and this information is not known to the voters. We show that there exists an equilibrium in which the party that does not want much of the public good uses the inefficient (high cost) technology even though the efficient one is available. Using the low cost technology would, by informing the voters about the cost parameter, force it to produce an excessively high level of the good in the future. Interestingly, this equilibrium is not symmetric, suggesting that a party with a strong taste for the public good is less likely to adopt a wasteful policy.     

Optimal Fiscal Policy with Consumption Taxation

We characterize optimal fiscal policies in a general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and endogenous public spending. The government can tax consumption, as alternative to labor income taxes. Consumption taxation acts as indirect taxation of profits (intratemporal gains of taxing consumption) and enables the policymaker to manage the burden of public debt more efficiently (intertemporal gains of taxing consumption). We show analytically that these two gains imply that the optimal share of government spending is higher under consumption taxation than with labor income taxation. Then, we quantify numerically each of these gains by calibrating the model on the U.S. economy.     

Redenomination Risk

Euro redenomination risk is the risk that a euro asset is redenominated into a devalued legacy currency. We propose a time‐varying, country‐specific intra‐euro area redenomination risk measure, defined as the quanto credit default swaps (CDS) of a member country relative to the quanto CDS of a benchmark member country. Focusing on Italy, Spain, and France and using Germany as benchmark, we show that the redenomination risk shocks significantly affect sovereign yield spreads, with Italy and Spain being most adversely affected. Finally, foreign redenomination risk shocks spill over and above local redenomination risk shocks, suggesting that this risk is systemic.