北京市建设地下公共交通的探讨

北京近十年来将地铁作为解决交通的主要措施,取得了巨大成绩,一定程度缓解了市民的出行难题.但是随着地铁线路的加密和增加,建设难度和运营补贴迅速加大,已凸显出“力不从心”之态.笔者提出在北京发展和建设城市地下公共交通的设想,并对其可行性及优势进行了分析,地下公共交通可与大运量的地铁骨干交通和地面公共交通共同组成立体交通系统,可加快解决和改善北京交通拥堵现状.     

Optimal Emission Policy under the Risk of Irreversible Pollution

We consider an optimal consumption and pollution problem that has two important features. Environmental damages due to economic activities may be irreversible and the level at which the degradation becomes irreversible is unknown. Particular attention is paid to the situation where agents are relatively impatient and/or do not care a lot about the environment and/or Nature regenerates at low rate. We show that the optimal policy of the uncertain problem drives the economy in the long run toward a steady state while, when ignoring irreversibility, the economy follows a balanced growth path accompanied by a perpetual decrease in environmental quality and consumption, both asymptotically converging toward zero. Therefore, accounting for the risk of irreversibility induces more conservative decisions regarding consumption and polluting emissions. In general, however, we cannot rule out situations where the economy will optimally follow an irreversible path and consequently will also be left, in the long run, with an irreversibly degraded environment.     

接收机畸变对辐射源指纹识别的影响

在辐射源个体识别技术应用中，接收机指纹和发射机指纹相互影响相互耦合，造成辐射源指纹库依赖于特定接收机，无法在不同接收机之间通用。针对此问题，对典型超外差接收机的滤波器、放大器畸变分量对接收信号指纹的影响进行了理论分析与实验验证。理论分析证明发射机和接收机的滤波器、放大器分量对于接收信号整体的畸变影响是等价的；实验中，利用两台超外差接收机对5台发射机进行个体识别测试验证，更换接收机前后，滤波器、放大器特征识别正确率分别从100%、95.5%降到20%，证明了接收机畸变分量对发射机指纹识别具有严重影响。该研究成果可为后续辐射源个体识别接收机设计以及接收机畸变校正提供理论依据。     

初论敌意证人规则——以刑事诉讼为视角

敌意证人规则以将诱导性询问引入主询问过程中为实质目标,通过灵活地设置诱导性询问的位置,在应对法庭上证人突然“叛变”的情况时,使控辩双方手中的武器始终维持合理的平衡度,最大限度地发挥交叉询问方式在发现案件真实方面的强大功能。     

男性生育率:我国人口学研究中值得重视的研究领域

国际人口学界开展男性生育率研究已有70多年,研究内容涉及男性生育率重要性、数据质量,以及男性与女性生育率之间量化关系等。许多国家在男性生育率统计数据上已有积累,挪威、英国、荷兰及冰岛等国已走在前列。我国尚未开展男性生育率的系统研究,原因可归结为:生育率研究重应用轻理论,有功利化倾向;对国外人口学研究内容的关注有偏颇,对国外人口理论研究关注较少;生育率研究的创新力不够,男性生育率研究领域的重要性被忽视;男性生育率统计指标未纳入现行生育率统计指标体系,男性生育率数据空白。阐述了我国开展该领域研究的理论与实践意义。     

我国水产品出口现状及发展对策分析

经过30多年的改革开放,中国水产品出口实现了跨越式发展,并以此为引擎推动了中国渔业经济的快速增长,是大农业中唯一实现贸易顺差的产业。本文总结了我国水产品主要出口国家的贸易量、品种和消费动向,剖析了水产品出口存在的质量与安全、人民币升值和加工成本上升、贸易方式和市场竞争等三大瓶颈,提出了我国在未来国际贸易竞争中继续保持相对优势地位,需要发挥行业组织作用、强化产品质量安全,化解不利因素、增强出口竞争力,转变出口方式、拓宽消费市场等对策措施。     

Dragon Slaying with Ambiguity: Theory and Experiments

This paper studies the impact of ambiguity in the best‐shot and weakest‐link models of public good provision. The models are first analyzed theoretically. Then, we conduct experiments to study how ambiguity affects behavior in these games. We test whether subjects' perception of ambiguity differs between a local opponent and a foreign one. We find that an ambiguity‐safe strategy is often chosen by subjects. This is compatible with the hypothesis that ambiguity aversion influences behavior in games. Subjects tend to choose contributions above (respectively, below) the Nash equilibrium in the best‐shot (respectively, weakest‐link) model.     

Ben Bernanke and Bagehot's Rules

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has claimed that the Fed's bank bailouts during the 2008 financial crisis were consistent with Walter Bagehot's rules for a lender of last resort. This paper demonstrates Bernanke's claims to be mistaken. First, we outline Bagehot's doctrine for a classical lender of last resort. Next, we discuss Bernanke's theory of bank bailouts and his statements regarding the Fed's role in the 2008 bank bailouts. Finally, we examine the bailouts and demonstrate that, contrary to Bernanke's claims, the Fed's actions were not consistent with Bagehot's rules for a lender of last resort.     

Restaurant Prices and the Minimum Wage

In this paper, we examine the effect of the minimum wage on restaurant prices. We contribute both to the study of economic impact of the minimum wage and to the study of microeconomic patterns of price stickiness. For this purpose, we use a unique data set of individual price quotes collected to calculate the Consumer Price Index in France and we estimate a price rigidity model based on a flexible rule. We find a positive and significant impact of the minimum wage on prices. The effect of the minimum wage on prices is, however, very protracted. A change in the minimum wage takes more than a year to fully pass through to retail prices.