Partial Regulation in Vertically Differentiated Industries

We provide theoretical foundations for quality‐adjusted price‐cap regulation in industries where a regulated incumbent and an unregulated entrant offer vertically differentiated products competing in price and quality. We show that, whether or not the incumbent anticipates the reaction of the entrant, the optimal weights in the cap depend upon the market served by the entrant, despite the latter not being directly concerned by regulation. We further show that the cap is robust to small errors in the weights. Our findings point to the conclusion that, in partially regulated industries, regulators should use information about the whole sectors rather than on the sole regulated incumbents.     

Central Bank Policy Paths and Market Forward Rates: A Simple Model

Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggests that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture deviations between announced paths and market forward rates. We detail the macroeconomic transmission of such deviations and show how the model can inform policy deliberations.     

ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION AND CHANGES IN CORPORATE CONTROL IN LATIN AMERICA

This article analyzes ownership restructuring and changes in corporate control in four large Latin American countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico—during the 1990s. Drawing on original firm‐level data, this is a comparative study aimed at identifying cross‐country differences and regularities. It focuses on transactions associated with privatizations and private mergers and acquisitions (M&As)—their evolution, relative importance, and sectoral incidence—as well as the role played by different types of investors: local, foreign, and joint ventures. A specially built database was used in the analysis, comprising 3,085 private M&As and 329 privatization transactions. Although similar to processes occurring elsewhere, it is argued that ownership restructuring in Latin America was facilitated and fostered by specific changes in policy‐associated institutional framework conditions. That is, the wide‐ranging process of ownership restructuring is strongly associated with economic liberalization, which has become the main feature of Latin American national regimes of incentives and regulation.     

Using the Murphy Model to Provide Short-run Macroeconomic Closure for ORANI

A macro model incorporating rational expectations in financial markets (the Murphy Model–MM) is used to endogenize the macroeconomic environment for a comprehensive general equilibrium model (ORANI). The interface exploits the existence of variables which are endogenous to both models, calibrating on a shock to government spending. Prospective benefits include: (1) to the numerous policy oriented users of ORANI, a facility allowing the macroeconomic environment to be determined by a macrodynamic model such as MM; (2) to these users, reassurance that ORANI's short-run translates in calendar time to about two years; (3) to the clientele of a macro model, the possibility of much more detailed projections.     

The Bank Capital Decision: A Time Series—Cross Section Analysis

This paper seeks to explain the dramatic decline in capital to asset ratios in U.S. commercial banks during the last two decades. It is hypothesized that the rise in nominal interest rates during this period might have contributed substantially to the fall in capital ratios. Time series-cross section estimation supports the hypothesis regarding the interest rate.     

The Determination of Fair Profits for the Property-Liability Insurance Firm

Single period and dynamic valuation models in continuous time, under certainty and uncertainty, are developed for a property-liability insurance contract to determine the “fair” (competitive) premium and underwriting profit. The intertemporal stochastic model assumes that the claim frequency and the price index of claim settlements are functions of a set of underlying state variables which follow a multivariate Wiener process. The competitive premium is shown to be proportional to the claim frequency and the price index for claim settlements at the time the policy is issued. The factor of proportionality varies directly with the claim settlement rate and the length of coverage, and inversely with the risk-adjusted real interest rate on the dollar-valued claim rate.     

Yesterday's Bad Times Are Today's Good Old Times: Retail Price Changes Are More Frequent Today Than in the 1890s

This paper documents differences in the nominal rigidity of retail prices across two 28-month periods: 1889–91 and 1997–99. The most striking finding is that prices changed much less frequently in 1889–91. In the late-1800s when price changes did occur they were smaller on average and more narrowly distributed with fewer small or large price changes. Further, price changes were more permanent 100-plus years ago. These differences are consistent with a high occurrence of temporary price shocks and a higher cost of changing prices in 1889–91 than in 1997–99.