Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations

Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters' costs of over- and underpredicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts, (ii) positive serial correlation in forecast errors, (iii) a cross-sectional dispersion that rises with the level and the variance of the inflation rate, and (iv) predictability of forecast errors at different horizons by means of the spread between the short- and long-term variance of inflation. We find empirically that these patterns are present in inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. A constant bias component, not explained by asymmetric loss and rational expectations, is required to explain the shift in the sign of the bias observed for a substantial portion of forecasters around 1982.     

IMPLICATIONS OF LIBERALISED EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKETS

This paper reviews the alternative labour market scenarios open to European policymakers in the current movement towards enhanced economic and political integration. To clarify the various issues, the paper dichotomises the policy alternatives into two camps: "euro-liberalists" and "euro-regulators." The paper concludes that the latter offers the best path towards convergence, with the proviso that the subject of regulation is a Pan-European system of labour market objectives rather than institutions.     

Diagnostic inference in performance evaluation: effects of cause and event covariation and similarity*

Abstract. This study experimentally tests some implications of psychological diagnostic inference theories and begins to extend these theories into a performance evaluation context. Subjects, who were required to assume the role of a manufacturing division manager, were asked to estimate the likelihoods of four potential causes of an assembly department's labor efficiency variance. The subjects were asked to reevaluate their causal likelihoods following: 1) evidence concerning the magnitude of the labor variance and the deviations of the four potential causes from their normal levels (similarity evidence) and 2) evidence concerning the covariation of a potential cause, and labor efficiency variances over the past five years (covariation evidence). The results generally confirmed a set of hypotheses predicting the effects of cause/event similarity and covariation upon individuals' causal inferences. Implications of these results for accounting information systems design are discussed in a concluding section. Résumé. Cette étude teste, au moyen d'une expérience, quelques-unes des conclusions des théories d'inférence diagnostique psychologique et amorce l'application de ces théories dans un contexte d'évaluation de la performance. Les sujets, qui devaient assumer le rôle de directeur d'une division de fabrication, ont été invités à estimer les probabilités de quatre causes possibles de l'écart de rendement sur main-d'?uvre d'un atelier d'assemblage. Les sujets furent invités à réévaluer leurs probabilités causales selon: 1) des informations relatives à l'ampleur de l'écart sur main-d'?uvre et à la dispersion des quatre causes potentielles par rapport à leur niveau normal (preuve de similitude) et 2) des informations relatives à la co-variation d'une cause potentielle, et aux écarts de rendement sur maind'?uvre des cinq dernières années (preuve de co-variation). De façon générale, les résultats confirment l'ensemble des hypothèses prévoyant les effets de similitude et de co-variation cause/événement sur les inférences causales des individus. Les conséquences de ces résultats sur la conception des systèmes d'information comptable sont examinées dans la conclusion.     

Causal Relationships in Australian Wage Inflation and Minimum Award Rates*

When variables are correlated in time-series studies, it is often difficult to determine which is cause and effect, and in what sense. This paper applies multivariate time-series tests of causality to Australian wage, price, minimum wage award, labour demand and strike (working days lost) variables for 1953-76. The results provide tentative support for a model in which strikes are exogenous:the size of Arbitration Commission awards is determined by strikes (suggesting that a trade union capture theory of Arbitration Commission regulation may apply):money wages are determined by minimum wage awards; and the demand for labour variable (measured in this paper by the ratio of actual to potential output) is determined (in a negative relationship) by money wages.     

Anomalies in Security Returns and the Specification of the Market Model

We examine the hypothesis originally advanced by Roll 12 that observed anomalies in excess returns can be explained by misspecification of the market model used to estimate systematic risk. We find substantial misspecifications in the model systematically related to size and period of listing of the securities in question. There is some evidence that these misspecifications are associated with systemic biases in measured betas used to construct excess returns.     

A survey of commercial laundry detergents - how effective are they?: Part III: powders,liquids and hard water

The effectiveness of 42 detergents, 11 non-phosphate containing powdered detergents, 12 phosphate containing powdered detergents, 11 unbuilt liquid detergents and eight built liquid detergents, of varying formulations, in cleaning a standard soiled fabric in water of varying hardness was evaluated. Powdered detergents were found to be significantly affected only at very high water hardness levels. There was no significant difference between washing in warm and hot water for the liquid detergents, except for a melaleucaoil based detergent which performed significantly better in hot water. Increasing water hardness had no significant effect on liquid detergents. Powdered detergents performed better than liquid detergents in cleaning the standard soiled fabric. While no one detergent was significantly better than the others, in general, washing with detergents that contained phosphates did give somewhat better results in warm water. Detergents that contained bleach as an additive did not result in whiter fabric.