Fertility projection based on birth order data--a Swedish approach

"The decreasing fertility rates in Sweden during the 1970s can be explained as postponement of childbearing. An increasingly larger part of each generation has chosen to bear children at a late age, after education and some years of occupational work. As a consequence, the yearly age-specific rates will, in years to come, change systematically towards relatively high rates for women in the second half of the fertile period; changes which are important in population projections. To predict the future rates a model based on birth order data and assumptions about the final family size is used. The model and its application in the 1989 projection of the Swedish population is discussed in the paper. Alternative projections and the assumptions behind the alternatives are specified."     

NSSM 200 and the world population explosion

This paper was published in the wake of Pope John Paul II's encyclical 'Evangelicum Vitae', which condemns abortion and contraception. The author describes how, in the mid-1970's, the Vatican blocked the implementation of President Nixon's 'National Security Study Memorandum 200', which was intended to combat global overpopulation. The author explains that excessive population growth is considered threatening to U.S. security interests, and concludes that "papal security-survival along with the influence of fundamentalist Protestant opposition to birth control is now pitted against the U.S. and world security-survival."     

Poverty,population and environmental degradation in China

This article examines the relationship between poverty, population, and environmental degradation in China. Environmental conditions include water pollution, deforestation, destruction of grasslands, soil erosion, and salinization. The authors review China's success in controlling environmental degradation through leadership, environmental policies, and institutional capacity. Findings suggest that environmental progress is best achieved indirectly by poverty alleviation, market integration, and population control. Government policies were not very effective. Degradation occurs due to limited financial resources, poorly trained personnel, and political factors. Control of water pollution was instituted since the 1980s. The levels of pollutants have been reduced, but the type of pollutant determines the seriousness of impact. Water pollution is due to industrial wastes, agricultural run-off, and soil erosion. Since the 1970s, reforestation targets have not been met. Technical extension and monitoring of planting is not available in most areas, and private, profit seeking interests control acreage. Grassland destruction is due to deforestation, agricultural expansion, and overgrazing. Independent regional authorities have successfully managed pasture programs. Erosion is the most serious in Loess Plateau, the Red Soils area, the Northeast China Plain, and the Northwest Grasslands, which comprise 70% of total land area. In 1990, erosion control was practiced in 39% of eroded land area. Salinization has remained fairly constant. Environmental controls (direct regulation, planned recovery, and state-mandated technological improvements) are uneven. The main tool for environmental management is the State Environmental Protection Commission and its executive unit, SEPA. Problems stem from vague laws, lack of means of enforcement, lack of coordination of laws, and lack of standards, schedules, and other provisions in ordinances.