Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun

In this paper, we examine changes in the time series properties of three widely used housing market indicators (real house prices, price-to-income ratios, and price-to-rent ratios) for a large set of countries to detect episodes of explosive dynamics. Dating such episodes of exuberance in housing markets provides a timeline as well as empirical content to the narrative connecting housing exuberance to the global 2008 ?09 recession. For our empirical analysis, we employ two recursive univariate unit root tests recently developed by Phillips and Yu (International Economic Review 52(1):201–226, 2011) and Phillips et al. (2015). We also propose a novel extension of the test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) to a panel setting in order to exploit the large cross-sectional dimension of our international dataset. Statistically significant periods of exuberance are found in most countries. Moreover, we find strong evidence of the emergence of an unprecedented period of exuberance in the early 2000s that eventually collapsed around 2006 ?07, preceding the 2008 ?09 global recession. We examine whether macro and financial variables help to predict (in-sample) episodes of exuberance in housing markets. Long-term interest rates, credit growth and global economic conditions are found to be among the best predictors. We conclude that global factors (partly) explain the synchronization of exuberance episodes that we detect in the data in the 2000s.     

Volatility dynamics of NYMEX natural gas futures prices

We examine the volatility dynamics of NYMEX natural gas futures prices via the partially overlapping time‐series model of Smith (2005. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 405–422). We show that volatility exhibits two important features: (1) volatility is greater in the winter than in the summer, and (2) the persistence of price shocks and, hence, the correlations among concurrently traded contracts, displays substantial seasonal and cross‐sectional variation in a way consistent with the theory of storage. We demonstrate that, by ignoring the seasonality in the volatility dynamics of natural gas futures prices, previous studies have suggested sub‐optimal hedging strategies. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:438–463, 2008     

The Sound of Trust: Voice as a Measurement of Trust During Interactions with Embodied Conversational Agents

Trust is a critical component in effective collaboration, decision-making and negotiation. The goal of effective team leaders should be to send signals and messages that increase trust. We attempt to determine if signals can vary perceptions of trustworthiness and if nonverbal behaviors, such as the voice, contain indicators of trust. In order to investigate the relationship between trust and vocal dynamics, this article presents a study that explores how the voice, measured unobtrusively, reflects a person’s current level of perceived trust. We used an Embodied Conversational Agent (ECA) to maximize consistency and control in questioning, timing, and interviewer nonverbal behavior, thus eliminating potential confounds that may be introduced due to interaction adaptation. Participants ( $\text{ N}=88$ ) completed a face-to-face interview with the ECA and reported their perceptions of the ECA’s trustworthiness. The results of the study revealed that vocal pitch was inversely related to perceived trust, but temporally variant; vocal pitch early in the interview reflected trust. The ECA was perceived as more trustworthy when smiling. While the results of this research suggest a relationship between vocal pitch and perceived levels of trust, more work needs to be done to clarify the causal relationship. Similarly, additional study needs to be done in order to integrate additional behavioral measurements that account for variation across diverse situations, people, and cultures.     

A CULTURAL THEORY OF INFORMATION BIAS IN ORGANIZATIONS

Organizations show an essential cultural pluralism. Taking this into account, we aim at developing a cultural theory of organizations. A central role in this theory is played by information rejection, which can follow any of four different styles: risk absorption, networking, paradigm protection, or expulsion. These can be related to different types of organizational cultures, in particular to markets, hierarchies, and sects. Different kinds of information bias institutionalize different kinds of leadership.     

Railroads and Time Consciousness in the Antebellum South

Historians have often looked to industrial capitalism to furtherour understanding of "time consciousness." This article explorestime consciousness through the experience of a railroad in pre-CivilWar South Carolina. Examining the South Carolina Railroad allowsus to examine how time consciousness operated in a region notassociated with industrial capitalism, and also see how multipletimes could function simultaneously. While clocks were importantto railroad operations, companies also had to address an arrayof non-clock times. Moreover, companies were never fully incontrol of their own time, but were in constant conflict andnegotiation with various groups in the community. While industrializationand factory labor remain important ways to understand time consciousness,looking beyond the factory walls can help historians make betteruse of the analytical power of time.