On the statistical identification of technology disruption

This study suggests a statistical procedure to identify technology disruption. In particular, a threshold autoregressive model enables the identification of threshold penetration for disruptive technology that affects the dynamic adjustment of an established technology. Both the magnitude and direction of the impact is identified by country World Bank income category in the context of the impact of (disruptive) mobile telephone diffusion on (primary) fixed-line markets. Importantly, as the procedure only requires a short time-series for the introduced technology and can readily be conducted on an ongoing basis.     

Decomposing the effects of financial liberalization: Crises vs. growth

We present a new empirical decomposition of the effects of financial liberalization on economic growth and on the incidence of crises. Our empirical estimates show that the direct effect of financial liberalization on growth by far outweighs the indirect effect via a higher propensity to crisis. We also discuss several models of financial liberalization and growth whose predictions are consistent with our empirical findings.     

New debt issues and earnings management

We empirically examine the influence and effects of real earnings management (REM) procedures on the debt market by investigating the bond rating and actual market price of a firm's new debt offerings. Extant research provides conflicting representations concerning the effects of REM techniques on equity shareholders and debt market participants. Our results indicate a negative association between all three REM manipulation methods and perceived credit risk resulting in a lower bond rating, and higher market yield of the firm's debt at issuance. Additional analyses exploring the use of REM techniques to achieve analyst's earnings forecasts indicates that this negative effect is particularly significant for firms who only achieve the earnings forecast by utilizing REM methods. Our research adds to the literature by empirically describing the effects of REM techniques on new debt issuances, and contributes to the ongoing debate regarding the efficacy of engaging in real earnings management to achieve known targets.     

The Influence of Board Monitoring,Executive Incentives,and Corporate Strategy on Employment Stability

This study examines the effects of corporate governance and diversification strategy on organizational employment stability. Calls for reform in the governance of public corporations have led to the adoption of practices that render senior executives more accountable to shareholders. However, the extant corporate governance literature suggests that mechanisms which make managers more accountable to shareholders might introduce a short-term bias to top managers’ decision-making. Arguing that employment stability reflects a long-term decision-making orientation, results of this study show that firms with boards comprised of a greater proportion of independent, or “outside,” directors have lower levels of aggregate employment stability. In contrast, findings indicate that more diversified firms tend to have higher levels of aggregate employment stability.     

The Role of Industry Effects in Simultaneous Reversal and Momentum Patterns in One-Month Stock Returns

When stocks are ranked by returns in one month, the portfolio of loser stocks tends to outperform the portfolio of winner stocks in the subsequent month. Yet industry portfolios tend to display momentum. We develop a model of information diffusion among agents with constrained information processing ability that reconciles these well-documented phenomena. We test whether this model or the overreaction hypothesis is consistent with the data. Additionally, a trading strategy based on the model outperforms strategies based on overreaction and on industry momentum. The strategy produces abnormal returns while controlling for market–risk and the size, book value, January, momentum, and liquidity effects.     

The Impact of Cross‐Listing on the Home Market's Information Environment and Stock Price Efficiency

We empirically examine changes in information asymmetry and informational efficiency of cross‐listed stocks in their home market around a cross‐listing in the United States. We estimate intraday market microstructure measures of information asymmetry and price efficiency, and find that a U.S. cross‐listing significantly improves the quality of a firm's information environment and stock price efficiency in the home market. This improvement is stronger for cross‐listings that take place after the adoption of Sarbanes‐Oxley Act. Our results demonstrate that stricter disclosure from a U.S. cross‐listing is beneficial, in line with the legal and reputational bonding hypotheses.     

The transfer of training: what really matters

Although organizations invest billions of dollars in training every year, many trained competencies reportedly fail to transfer to the workplace. Researchers have long examined the ‘transfer problem’, uncovering a wealth of information regarding the transfer of training. Inconsistencies remain, however, and organizations may find it difficult to pinpoint exactly which factors are most critical. Using Baldwin and Ford's model of transfer, we identify the factors relating to trainee characteristics (cognitive ability, self‐efficacy, motivation, perceived utility of training), training design (behavioral modeling, error management, realistic training environments) and the work environment (transfer climate, support, opportunity to perform, follow‐up) that have exhibited the strongest, most consistent relationships with the transfer of training. We describe our reasoning for extracting such variables from the literature and conclude by discussing potential implications for practice and future research.     

关于投资美国不良贷款市场途径的分析

金融危机爆发以来,欧美市场（特别是房地产市场）资产泡沫破灭,资产价格大幅下跌。对银行业而言,不良贷款（NPL）规模快速膨胀。这极大地影响了银行的资产质量,     

Economic impact of a private sector micro-financing scheme in South Dakota

While poverty rates on Native American Indian reservations are triple the US average. Small business incubation programs, available elsewhere in the US, scarcely exist on the Native American Indian Reservations (NAIRs). Our unique study tests the effects of the Lakota Fund (LF), a private sector small business development initiative on the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota, on the economic development of the NAIRs. Our objective is to determine whether the SBA-like programs (loans, training, and consulting) can improve economic conditions. The 1980–2006 annual county-level (Shannon Co. is ‘treatment,’and Todd Co. is ‘control’) data are a natural experiment. Results indicate that the LF inception and duration significantly raised real per capita income (RPCI)—suggesting not only the success of the LF, but support for the broader notion that privately funded small business initiatives can be used to support economic development of isolated impoverished groups within the US economy.     

The war against drug producers

This paper develops a model of a war against illegal drug producers. This war occurs on two fronts. First, to prevent the cultivation of crops the state engages the drug producers in conflict over the control of land. Second, to impede further the production and exportation of drugs the state attempts to eradicate crops and to interdict drug shipments. The model includes an interested outsider who uses both a stick and a carrot to strengthen the resolve of the state in its war against drug producers. We use numerical calibrations of the model to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of Plan Colombia. The authors wish to thank an anonymous referee, Michelle Garfinkel, Jean Hindriks, Carlos Esteban Posada, and Marc St-Pierre for helpful comments and suggestions, as well as seminar participants at Brown, Yale, the CEPR conference on Crime and Conflicts, Marseilles, October 2004, LACEA, San José, November 2004, the AEA meetings, Philadelphia, January 2005, the ESWC, London, August 2005, and Banco de la República. Herschel Grossman died on October 9, 2004 in Marseilles during a conference where we were presenting this paper.