Determinants for forecasting technological substitution

This paper investigates the factors determining the rate of technological substitution and evaluates the prospects for forecasting models based on market-share data only. Studies on underlying causes for the substitution of one technology or product by another reveal the frequent presence of a number of factors. These factors are first discussed in general terms so as to establish their causal relationships with the rate of substitution. On the basis of the identified cause-effect relationships, a composite model is formulated that incorporates the impact of individual factors in a combination of additive and multiplicative interactions. The relative importance and sensitivity of different factors in describing the behavior of the substitution process is then studied through a system-dynamics application of the model. Finally, using three specific cases, a comparison is given between the forecasts made by the comprehensive model, incorporating factors that are known to have significant impact on the rate of substitution, with that of a generalized model for forecasting technological substitution.     

Diversification and Performance: Critical Review and Future Directions*

This article uses an integrative theoretical framework to review existing empirical research on the diversification-performance relationship along the three different research streams which have studied this relationship. the article highlights the considerable diversity in the findings across studies in each stream and identifies certain key theoretical and methodological issues which might help to explain the observed diversity. Also discussed is a contingency-based perspective and several useful directions for future research.     

Deregulation, consolidation and banks efficiency in Singapore: Evidence from event study window approach and Tobit analysis

A three-year window analysis together with the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach is employed to investigate the effects of mergers and acquisitions on the Singapore banking groups’ efficiency. The results suggest that the merger has resulted in a higher Singapore banking groups’ mean overall efficiency. We do not find evidence of more efficient acquirers compared to the targets and that the acquiring banks’ mean overall efficiency tends to improve from the merger with a more efficient bank. The Tobit regression results suggest that bank profitability has positive impact on bank efficiency, whereas poor loan quality has negative influence on bank performance. (JEL: G21, D24) All findings, interpretations, and conclusions are solely those of the authors’ and do not necessarily represent the views of the institutions to which they belong. We would like to thank the anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions. The remaining errors are of our own.     

Inclusion of Environmental Goods in National Income Accounting

National income statistics take into account the values of market goods and completely ignore the environmental goods. The purpose of this paper is to suggest the integration of environmental goods into the framework of Leontiefs input–output analysis. It is suggested that environmental goods, such as clean air, fresh water, quiet, etc., be treated as sectors in the same way as market goods sectors. The final deliveries of the sectors may be positive, zero or negative, depending on the scarcity of the environ mental goods and political decisions. The paper gives a numerical illustration of how the environmental goods can be valued from an input–output analysis. It is recommended that a system should be devised to adjust the national income estimators of individual countries for the changes in the environmental goods caused by the economic activities of these countries.     

Instrument Choice: The Demand for Mortgages in Canada

This paper is directed at understanding the factors which caused mortgage demand to fluctuate to the degree witnessed in the 1980s. We model the mortgage choice decision as involving simultaneous options on both the term and the amortization choice, by cost minimizing risk averse borrowers. The model is estimated using a bivariate ordered probit methodology. An extensive database containing details on the financial and demographic characteristics of households is used. We find that, contrary to the dominant model of mortgage demand, borrowers react to market conditions in a risk averse and cost minimizing manner.     

Endogenicity of economic growth models

In his celebrated 1956 article, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Solow calibrated the stylized facts of economic growth observed in the Western developed countries and summed up by Kaldor. Solow reconciled steady-state rate of growth of per capita output with constant capital/output and capital/labor ratios by introducing labor augmenting technological progress and measuring physical labor time in efficiency units. A series of articles have appeared since the mid-1980s, which have substantially extended the neoclassical model of growth theory presented by Solow. Most of these are entitled endogenous in juxtaposition to Solow's model, which is considered and often labeled exogenous. The purpose of this article is to show that this dichotomy is not worthwhile by arguing that the way technological progress enters in Solow's model plays a crucial role. Moreover, the designation of a model need not depend on the way it employs just one element among others.     

The Evolution and Impact of Infrastructure in Middle-Income Countries: Anything Special?

We examine the evolution of infrastructure, and the impact of infrastructure investment, in middle-income countries (MICs). We document how different types of infrastructure stocks, as well as infrastructure investment, vary with the level of development and growth performance. We then use the two-stage approach of Corsetti, Meier, and Müller (2012) to identify exogenous public investment shocks and investigate the macroeconomic impact of these shocks. We find that the provision of infrastructure varies across development stages; there is a focus on basic infrastructure, such as transport, water, and sanitation, during early stages, and an emphasis on “advanced” infrastructure, such as power and especially information and communication technology, in later stages. Better-performing MICs tend to invest more on infrastructure. They also have more information and communication technology infrastructure. Finally, we find a more significant and sustained impact of exogenous public investment shocks on output in MICs than in low-income countries.     

Portfolio Diversification Benefits at Different Investment Horizons During the Arab Uprisings: Turkish Perspectives Based on MGARCH–DCC and Wavelet Approaches

This study is an initial attempt at investigating the extent to which portfolio diversification benefits at different investment horizons are available to a Turkish investor from investment in MENA countries exposed to the Arab spring based on MGARCH-DCC and Wavelet techniques on daily data spanning from 2005 to 2015. The findings tend to suggest that the Turkish investors may not benefit from investment in Egypt for almost all investment horizons but may have moderate benefits from Lebanon up to the investment horizons of 32–64 days and longer. However, Turkish investors may benefit from Oman excepting the longer investment horizons. In the long run, all stock holding periods exceeding 32 days have minimal benefits for portfolio diversification.     

Mutual fund flows and investors’ expectations in BRICS economies: Implications for international diversification

This paper empirically examines the relationship between different classes of mutual funds, measures of investors’ expectations and business cycle movements in the BRICS markets over the 1996Q1-2017Q3 period. Applying the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model in a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) setting, the results suggest a strong causal relationship between mutual fund flows and measures of investors’ future expectations. In particular, fund flows are forward-looking and assist in forecasting real economic conditions. Moreover, investors choose to invest in riskier funds when economic conditions are good, while they prefer safer options in poor economic situations. These findings have important implications for international diversification.     

An Interpretive Inquiry of Accounting Practices in Religious Organisations

This paper reports the study of accounting practices as embedded in two religious organisations in Malaysia. The research is an attempt to study accounting practices in a cultural setting that has not been the subject of previous interpretive accounting research. The study also makes a contribution towards the need for accounting research to become more explanatory of accounting as social practice wherein theory is both informed, and is developed by observation. This is achieved by developing grounded theory from the data and is in accordance with recent calls for case studies in accounting research to be more concerned with producing social theories of accounting practice.