Making sense of complex data using interactive data visualization

An important role for accountants today is to provide decision support to senior management by assisting them in the analysis of large, complex data sets. Interactive data visualization (IDV) facilitates this process by allowing users to navigate, select, and display data via an easy-to-use interface often used as a component of data analytics. Given the increasing popularity of IDV as a tool for making sense of complex data, it is important that accountants become familiar with and learn how to use this technology. This case provides a hands-on opportunity to organize complex accounting data to create IDVs for decision makers to use. Further, the case enables students to understand the potential impact of IDVs on preparers and users of accounting information. Students will assume the role of a division controller in a hypothetical company and create an IDV to assist the chief executive officer (CEO) in decision making.     

The Relative Performance of Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Estimators

Negative binomial estimators are commonly used in estimating models with count‐data dependent variables. In this paper, sampling experiments are used to evaluate the performance of these estimators relative to the simpler Poisson estimator in finite‐sample situations. The results do not suggest a clear preference for negative binomial estimators in situations in which the underlying dependent variables are overdispersed, unless the researcher is comfortable in assumptions about the precise form of the overdispersion.     

Two-stage DEA: <Emphasis Type="Italic">caveat emptor</Emphasis>

This paper examines the wide-spread practice where data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency estimates are regressed on some environmental variables in a second-stage analysis. In the literature, only two statistical models have been proposed in which second-stage regressions are well-defined and meaningful. In the model considered by Simar and Wilson (J Prod Anal 13:49–78, 2007), truncated regression provides consistent estimation in the second stage, where as in the model proposed by Banker and Natarajan (Oper Res 56: 48–58, 2008a), ordinary least squares (OLS) provides consistent estimation. This paper examines, compares, and contrasts the very different assumptions underlying these two models, and makes clear that second-stage OLS estimation is consistent only under very peculiar and unusual assumptions on the data-generating process that limit its applicability. In addition, we show that in either case, bootstrap methods provide the only feasible means for inference in the second stage. We also comment on ad hoc specifications of second-stage regression equations that ignore the part of the data-generating process that yields data used to obtain the initial DEA estimates.     

A proposal for a more objective measure of de facto constitutional constraints

In this paper we propose two new indicators of de facto constitutional constraints. The indicators are based on the presence or the absence of easily observable political events. This makes the proposed measures relatively objective and easy to verify relative to the most widely used indicators of de jure and de facto constitutions. This paper describes the indicators and demonstrates their usefulness for research on economic development.     

Richard H. Thaler — Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträger 2017

Richard H. Thaler was awarded this year’s Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel “for his contributions to behavioural economics”. He studied systematic departures of human behaviour from the standard “homo oeconomicus” assumption. His famous work on boundedly rational behaviour considers both cognitive limitations and limited self-control. The cognitive limitations he studied are in particular the endowment effect, i.e. the observation that individuals assign a higher value to an object if they possess it, and mental accounting, a collection of theories regarding how individuals think about money. Furthermore, he provided path-breaking evidence on the nature of social preferences, which laid the groundwork for the development of several widely used economic theories incorporating altruism, fairness and reciprocity.     

System-dynamic model of regional economy: The case of Rostov oblast

This article presents a method of simulation modeling that is broadly used in regional process studies. Based on this model, we have developed a system of supporting decision-making intended for regional development. Potential development scenarios for the Rostov oblast have been elaborated using statistical data about the region.     

Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?

This paper finds that participants in the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters have submitted forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) empirical version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation technique takes advantage of the panel nature of the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ dataset to exploit both its time series and cross-section dimensions, and to control for unobservable individual heterogeneity across forecasters. The estimation results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter Phillips Curve in the euro area after 2007. However, the reasons suggested by the International Monetary Fund for this finding, namely a better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey data. Instead, the expectations for compensation per employee submitted by professional forecasters are consistent with the existence of downward real-wage rigidities in euro-area labour markets.     

Impacts of Jumps and Stochastic Interest Rates on the Fair Costs of Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit Contracts

The authors offer a new perspective to the field of guaranteed minimum death benefit contracts, especially for simple return premium and rising floor guarantees. A particular feature of these contracts is a guaranteed capital upon the insured's death. A complete methodology based on the generalized Fourier transform is proposed to investigate the impacts of jumps and stochastic interest rates. This paper thus extends Milevsky and Posner (2001). If jumps alone are considered, similar results are obtained, but, when stochastic interest rates are introduced, the fair costs of the guarantee feature are found to be substantially higher in this more general economy.