Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models

The classical approach to testing for structural change employs retrospective tests using a historical data set of a given length. Here we consider a wide array of fluctuation‐type tests in a monitoring situation—given a history period for which a regression relationship is known to be stable, we test whether incoming data are consistent with the previously established relationship. Procedures based on estimates of the regression coefficients are extended in three directions: we introduce (a) procedures based on OLS residuals, (b) rescaled statistics and (c) alternative asymptotic boundaries. Compared to the existing tests our extensions offer ease of computation, improved size in finite samples for dynamic models and better power against certain alternatives, respectively. We apply our methods to three data sets, German M1 money demand, US labour productivity and S&P 500 stock returns. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SUBNATIONAL GOVERNMENT ORGANISATION AND PUBLIC DEBT CRISES

Multilevel governments can be organised according to two basic principles: the principle of autonomy and the principle of vertical public administration. In between, there are a number of mixed systems which are questionable from the point of view of distribution of responsibilities. Subnational public debt crises typically occur in mixed federal systems. Preferable to such systems are pure systems with clear responsibilities. Nevertheless, courts can establish clear liability rules and hence contribute to a stabilisation of federal systems. However, court decisions do not supersede a political choice between either of the two pure systems. Two case studies on local governments illustrate under what circumstances a system of autonomy is preferable and how this result can be applied to the European Union.     

Executive Turnover and Outside Directors on Two‐Tiered Boards

This paper examines the determinants of executive turnover on two‐tiered boards, emphasizing the monitoring role of supervisory board members with simultaneous outside directorships. Based on a unique sample of executives from large German firms, we find that outside supervisory board members generally increase executive turnover at the firms they monitor. This influence is especially pronounced when outside supervisory board members are simultaneously active as managers themselves and capital control is rather weak. These results suggest that external managers on supervisory boards enhance the monitoring intensity and substitute for weak capital control in the absence of large shareholders. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Reliability of Certification: Quality Labels as a Consumer Policy Tool

Given the large number of certification systems in the food industry, it is surprising that there are only a few research approaches to the economics of certification. Certification schemes are used to ensure marketing claims for unobservable quality attributes. Under asymmetric information, process-oriented quality characteristics such as organic farming, animal welfare, or fair trade raise the question of mislabelling. In the long run, only a reliable control procedure can reduce the risk of food scandals. The article presents a model which includes several starting points to enhance the efficiency of certification systems and the corresponding labels. On the whole, tendencies towards price wars on the certification market and considerable differences in performance reveal the necessity of institutional changes. Strategies for reducing auditors dependence, intensifying liability, increasing reputation effects, and minimizing audit costs are suggested. Finally, policy implications for public and private monitoring are discussed.     

The Grunfeld Data at 50

Abstract. This paper revisits Grunfeld's well‐known investment data, one of the most widely used datasets in all of applied econometrics, on the occasion of their 50th anniversary. It presents, apparently for the first time after the publication of the original Chicago Ph.D. thesis, the full dataset, points out errors and inconsistencies in several currently available versions, and also revisits a number of empirical studies from the literature of the last five decades. Our findings provide a cautionary tale on the use of widely known data and underline the need for mandatory data and code archives.     

Generalized M-fluctuation tests for parameter instability

A general class of fluctuation tests for parameter instability in an M-estimation framework is suggested. Tests from this framework can be constructed by first choosing an appropriate estimation technique, deriving a partial sum process of the estimation scores that captures instabilities over time, and aggregating this process to a test statistic by using a suitable scalar functional. Inference for these tests is based on functional central limit theorems, which are derived under the null hypothesis of parameter stability and local alternatives. For (generalized) linear regression models, concrete tests are derived, which cover several known tests for (approximately) normal data but also allow for testing for parameter instability in regressions with binary or count data. The usefulness of the test procedures—complemented by powerful visualizations derived from these—is illustrated using Dow Jones industrial average stock returns, youth homicides in Boston, USA, and illegitimate births in Grossarl, Austria.     

Insurance in a Market for Credence Goods

We study the impact of variations in the degree of insurance on the amount of fraud in a physician‐patient relationship. In a market for credence goods, where prices are regulated by an authority, physicians act as experts. Due to their informational advantage, physicians have an incentive to cheat by pretending to perform inappropriately high treatment levels leading to overcharging patients. Our approach aims on the impact on changes in each, patients' and physicians' incentive structure when the proportional degree of coinsurance varies. It is shown that a higher coinsurance rate may lead to either less fraud in the market and a lower probability of patients searching for second opinions or more fraud and more searches.     

Bedarfsgerechte Steuerung der Gesundheitsversorgung — Chancen und Hindernisse

On 2 July 2018, the German Council of Health Experts handed over its current report entitled, “Demand-oriented health care management” to the Federal Ministry of Health. The pronounced separation of outpatient and inpatient care, and distinction between private and public health insurance, is typical of the German system. Experts’ recommendations include improved coordination of outpatient and inpatient services, monistic hospital financing and family doctor-centred patient care. The main criticism of the report is that it lacks a regulatory concept with competitive management structures.