A Dynamic Adjustment Model for U.S. Agriculture: 1948-79

A multioutput model is developed within the adjustment cost framework to analyze the structure of dynamic adjustments in U.S. agriculture during the post-war period. An important feature of this model is that the econometric model is consistent with dynamic economic theory. Fluctuations in capital stocks, variable inputs, and outputs are explained by changing opportunity costs. Empirical results indicated that durable equipment, farm-produced durables, and family labor exhibited significant rigidity in adjustment as a response to exogenous shocks. Surprisingly, the hypothesis that real estate was a variable input could not be rejected. The univariate flexible accelerator hypothesis, which is widely maintained in most agricultural adjustment studies, is inconsistent with the data.     

Foreign travel and the risk of harm

Systematic data on the risk of fatal and non-fatal injury from external causes to those who travel abroad for purposes of business or pleasure are seldom recorded and are consequently hard to come by. In this paper, the risk of fatal injuries to foreign travellers using historical and newly acquired data from national databases is estimated. Overall, it appears from these data that the risk of fatal injury to foreign travellers lies in the range of 20 to 90 per 100 000 person-years of exposure for many destinations worldwide, although different rates may pertain in selected situations where special conditions apply, for example, where there is heavy participation in risky sports or increased driving. This level of fatal injury risk is not noticeably different from that of staying in one's home country if one lives in a Western-style industrial country, although the types of hazards responsible may vary in type and proportion. With increasing levels of travel, and the growing popularity of more adventurous pursuits, it is possible that risks could be increasing in this sector.     

A model of wine tourist behaviour: a festival approach

The study constructs a temporal model of wine tourist behaviour on the basis of the social psychologist' theory of consumer attitudes and related concepts with regard to past behaviour, satisfaction, perceived value and behavioural intentions. More importantly, this study added two dimensions to this model by proposing that satisfaction and perceived value had an impact on the attendees' intentions (i) to visit a local winery and (ii) to buy local wine products. Using a path analysis approach and data collected from the attendees at a regional wine festival, the study examined the above relationships. The results of this path analysis can be summarised as: (i) past behaviour influenced the intention to revisit and the level of perceived value, but had no effect on the level of satisfaction; (ii) perceived value strongly affected the level of satisfaction; (iii) satisfaction had a strong impact on future intentions to revisit and also an effect on intentions to visit local wineries and to buy local wine products; and (iv) perceived value affected the intentions to revisit the festival and to visit local wineries but did not influence the intentions to buy local wines. It is believed that the results of the present study will be useful to organisers of wine festivals and/or wine tourism developers. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ben S. Bernanke,Timothy F. Geithner,and Henry M. Paulson Jr.: Firefighting: The financial crisis and its lessons

Business Economics -     

External funding of major capital projects in the UK Higher Education sector: issues of demand,supply and market timing?

The aim of this paper is to consider the sources of finance used to support major capital expenditure in the UK Higher Education sector and to reflect on any differences between traditional corporate finance theory and practice in the UK university sector. Utilising both HESA data returns and published annual accounts, an in-depth analysis using a logit structure is carried out on data from the top 63 UK universities over the period 2014–2017, to establish the range of funding sources adopted for major capital projects, all set within the context of the UK macro environment and a period of low interest rates. The research also carries out a survey of funders to understand the decision criteria used by lenders active in the Higher Education sector and a survey of university finance directors to determine the use of the funds, the reasons behind past lending decisions and to ascertain likely future demand for finance to fund major capital projects.     

BEN BERNANKE AND THE ZERO BOUND

From 2000 to 2003, when Ben Bernanke was a professor and then a Fed Governor, he wrote extensively about monetary policy at the zero bound on interest rates. He advocated aggressive stimulus policies, such as a money‐financed tax cut and an inflation target of 3%–4%. Yet, after U.S. interest rates hit zero in 2008, the Fed under Chairman Bernanke took more cautious actions. This paper asks when and why Bernanke changed his mind about zero‐bound policy. The answer, at one level, is that he was influenced by analysis from the Fed staff that was presented at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of June 2003. This answer raises another question: why did the staff's views influence Bernanke so strongly? I seek answers to this question in the social psychology literature on group decision‐making. (JEL E52, E58)     

Productivity and international competitiveness of agriculture in the European Union and the United States

This study looks at international competitiveness of agriculture in the European Union and the United States. The most intuitive concept is that of price competitiveness. We calculate relative prices for 11 member states of the European Union and the United States for the period 1973–2002. We assume that markets are perfectly competitive and in long‐run equilibrium, so that the observed price always equals average total cost, as measured by the cost dual to the production function. This assumption is used in our calculation of relative competitiveness and productivity gaps between the European Union and the United States and in our decomposition of relative price movements between changes in relative input prices and changes in relative productivity levels.