Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models

There is compelling evidence that many macroeconomic and financial variables are not generated by linear models. This evidence is based on testing linearity against either smooth nonlinearity or piece-wise linearity, but there is no framework that encompasses both. This paper provides an econometric framework that allows for both breaks and smooth nonlinearity in between breaks. We estimate the unknown break-dates simultaneously with other parameters via nonlinear least-squares. Using new central limit results for nonlinear processes, we provide inference methods on break-dates and parameter estimates and several instability tests. We illustrate our methods via simulated and empirical smooth transition models with breaks.     

The Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis in the Asia‐Pacific Region Revisited*

In a study of nine Asia‐Pacific countries' real exchange rates, Chinn (2000) finds some evidence in support of the Balassa (1964) and Samuelson (1964) hypothesis. His findings, however, are based on the application of a model containing several potentially restrictive simplifying assumptions to a dataset of limited span. Consequently, we look to assess the effect on Chinn's findings of considerably increasing the sample size and relaxing these assumptions. We find a comparable level of evidence for the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis when applying Chinn's model to the larger sample, but obtain significantly greater support when a less restrictive approach is adopted.     

Would you forgive Kristen Stewart or Tiger Woods or maybe Lance Armstrong? Exploring consumers’ forgiveness of celebrities’ transgressions

Employing a qualitative approach, within the context of Generation Y consumers, this research investigates the internal justification processes used by consumers contemplating to forgive a celebrity who has transgressed society’s norms of acceptable behaviour. A thematic analysis of data from in-depth interviews identified nine emergent categories, grouped into four themes or core drivers: celebrity-related drivers, consumer-related drivers, context-related drivers and time-related drivers. The findings show that although there is generally no personal relationship between consumers and celebrities, consumers tend to bond with celebrities in para-social relationships. Many consumers see these relationships as similar to how they connect with friends thus leading them to show forgiveness tendencies towards a celebrity comparable to forgiving friends. The paper presents a conceptual framework highlighting the consumer’s forgiveness justification process.     

Why Dwell in a Hutongtel? Tourist Accommodation Preferences and Guest Segmentation for Beijing Hutongtels

Hutongtels are unique accommodations within traditional courtyards and surrounded by old Beijing‐style lifestyles. They have been recognized as significant landmarks and attract substantial numbers of foreign and domestic guests despite simple facilities and services. This research aimed not only to create a greater understanding of hutongtels as a signature tourism product of Beijing but also to identify preferences contributing to hutongtel choice and sub‐groupings of guests. Eight preference factors were extracted via factor analysis, and four segments of hutongtel guests were found through cluster analysis. The results should facilitate future hutongtel development planning and tourism product design by local communities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.     

Technology Adoption and Pest Control Strategies Among UK Cereal Farmers: Evidence from Parametric and Nonparametric Count Data Models

This paper examines the intensity of technology adoption and integrated pest management strategies employed by UK farmers, using both parametric and nonparametric methods. We employ a unique survey dataset collected from UK cereal farmers to assess the determinants of technology adoption in relation to pest management. Our preferred model specification is nonparametric, with models estimated yielding broadly similar results, with some important qualitative differences. All models indicate that total area farmed is positively related to the number of technologies adopted, whereas the number of years of experience of the farmer is negatively related. We also find evidence with our nonparametric specification of significant statistical differences for number of adoptions by region across the UK.     

Activity Segmentation of the International Heritage Tourism Market to Taiwan

The heritage tourism market has developed from being regarded as a small niche segment to a mainstream market of considerable size. In Taiwan, diversified heritage resources hold considerable appeal to the international tourism market. Little research has been completed on international heritage tourists to Taiwan, so this study utilized Taiwan as a case study and examined international tourists to the destination. It first employed cluster analysis based on activity participation to segment the market and test for the existence of “heritage tourists”. Three groups of international tourists to Taiwan were identified and they were labelled as “heritage”, “shopping” and “non-specialists”. The heritage group had a high participation rate in visiting heritage relics (90.6%). The study also profiled tourists according to the reasons they travelled to Taiwan and socio-demographic variables. The heritage tourists and other activity participation groups were compared to reveal the major motivational and socio-demographic differences involved. The findings showed that “international heritage tourists to Taiwan” were a group of visitors with relatively younger ages, middle levels of income and higher educational levels. The study defined heritage tourists who indicated visiting heritage sites as part of their reason for visiting Taiwan as “motivated heritage visitors”. Other heritage tourists who participated in heritage activities, but did not list heritage tourism as a reason for visiting Taiwan, were defined as “heritage site visitors”. Finally, the study profiled the two groups of heritage tourists and compared them, with significant differences being found in ages and nationalities.     

A short review of the historical critique of usury

Usury - lending at interest or excessive interest - has, according to known records, been practised in various parts of the world for at least four thousand years. During this time, there is substantial evidence of intense criticism by various traditions, institutions and social reformers on moral, ethical, religious and legal grounds. The rationale employed by these wide-ranging critics have included arguments about work ethic, social justice, economic instability, ecological destruction and inter-generational equity. While the contemporary relevance of these largely historical debates is not analysed in detail, the authors contend that their significance is greater than ever before in the context of the modern interest-based global economy.     

ENDOGENOUS ELECTION TIMING IN MAJORITARIAN PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEMS*

The election date is an endogenous choice in many parliamentary systems. This paper explores when governments call elections and how the timing of an election influences the electoral result. Governments have an incentive to behave opportunistically, calling elections at a time when they are performing well. However, the choice of election date reveals information about the government. Specifically, early elections indicate that a government has little faith in its ability to perform well in the future. The analysis is expanded to consider changes in government composition, political business cycles, informational asymmetries and the role of opposition campaigning.     

Trade union growth,the employer and the hotel and restaurant industry: a case study

The author discusses the prospects for trade union growth in this industry in the light of a case study of the development of a branch of the Transport and General Workers’ Union within the EMI-owned Angus Steak House chain.