Spot water markets and risk in water supply

Water availability patterns in semiarid regions are typically extremely variable. Even in basins with a highly developed infrastructure, users are subject to unreliable water supplies, incurring substantial economic losses during periods of scarcity. More flexible instruments, such as voluntary exchanges of water among users, can help users to reduce risk exposure. This article looks at the effects of spot water markets on the economic risk caused by water availability variations. Our theoretical and empirical risk analyses are based on the random profits of water users. Profit probability density functions are formally and graphically characterized for both water sellers and buyers under several possible market outcomes. We conclude from this analysis that, where water supply is stochastic, water markets unambiguously reduce both parties' risk exposure. The empirical study is conducted on an irrigation district in the Guadalquivir Valley (Southern Spain), where there is a high probability of periods of extreme water scarcity. Water demand functions for the district representative irrigators and a spatial equilibrium model are used to simulate market exchanges and equilibrium. This programming model is combined with statistical simulation techniques. We show that the profit probability distribution of a representative irrigator is modified if water exchanges are authorized, leading to risk reductions. Results also indicate that if the market were extended to several districts and users that are subject to varying hydrological risk exposure, extremely low‐profit events would be less likely to occur. In sum, we show that exchanging water in annual spot markets can reduce farmers' economic vulnerability caused by water supply variability across irrigation seasons. These results support the water policy reform carried out in Spain in 1999 to allow for voluntary water exchanges among right holders.     

The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

We find highly significant results when the cross-section of market-adjusted stock returns is regressed against changes in analyst expectations this year about: (1) this year's earnings, (2) next year's earnings, (3) long-term earnings growth, and (4) noise (measured as the standard deviation of analyst forecasts). Surprisingly, changes in expectations about this year's earnings are not significant in a multiple regression with the other independent variables. Changes in expectations about next year's earnings are highly significant but with an impact that is much smaller than that of changes in expectations about the long-term growth in earnings. Changes in noise are also statistically significant and are negatively related to market-adjusted returns, an indication that the signal to noise ratio, rather than merely the signal, is what drives price adjustments to new information.     

Does the quality of public-sponsored training programs matter? Evidence from bidding processes data

This paper analyzes the link between training quality and labor-market outcomes. Multiple proxies for training quality are identified from bidding processes in which public and private training institutions compete for limited public funding in Peru. Information about exact dates of program enrollment is analyzed to show whether the first-come-first-served assignment rule randomized eligible individuals across courses of varying quality. Generalized propensity score (GPS) is implemented to estimate dose–response functions in the context of multiple treatments. We find that beneficiaries attending high-quality training courses show higher earnings and better job-quality characteristics than either beneficiaries attending low-quality courses or nonparticipants. The returns are particularly robust for women, making the provision of high-quality training services cost-effective. Furthermore, the most important training attribute is expenditures per trainee. Class size and infrastructure are weakly related to the expected impacts, while teacher experience, curricular activities, and market knowledge seem to bear no relationship with the expected impacts. External validity was assessed by using five cohorts of individuals over an eight-year period.     

Personal and regional redistribution through public finance in a federal setting

Following a partial equilibrium approach, this paper studies the effect of fiscal policy on income distribution in Argentina, based on budget information corresponding to the year 2004. Specifically, it aims to provide an empirical answer to a set of questions related to the responsibility of different levels of government (national or provincial) in ensuring the equitable distribution of income; how this responsibility is accomplished in practice, when this function is shared among two or more levels of government; whether an incompatibility arises among the policies from different levels of government; and the effect of fiscal policy on personal and regional income distribution.The main results of the paper are summarized as follows. At the aggregate level, both national and provincial budgets have a redistributive impact on personal income distribution, through a combination of progressive expenditures and (slightly) regressive taxes. Regional redistribution depends on two fiscal tools: the national budget and the revenue sharing regime. The progressive effect of expenditures and taxes interacts with the geographical effect of the revenue-sharing and the national budget, reinforcing progressivity in net-receiving groups and creating a trade-off between progressivity and (negative) regional transfer in net-financing ones. Provincial budgets have more impact than the national budget, both being compatible in pursuing the redistributive goal.     

Switching to Green: The Timing of Socially Responsible Innovation

We develop a timing game for adopting a product technology that features a public good. We investigate the effects of the degree of product market competition, product differentiation, the private benefits from contributing to the public good, and firm asymmetries on the timing of adoption. We then examine the effects of consumer subsidies on equilibrium timings and the proliferation of the public good.     

Inflation and capital accumulation in an OLG model with money in the production function

This article analyses the consequences of the money supply growth rate on capital intensity and economic growth in an overlapping-generations model with real balances entering the production function. Within this theoretical framework, anticipated inflation generates an ambiguous effect on capital–labour ratio, because two forces work simultaneously in opposite directions: one driving towards a pure Tobin effect (due to the OLG demographic structure of the economy) and the other pushing down the capital stock (due to the productive role of real balances). Despite the unclear effects exerted on capital intensity, higher monetary growth rates unambiguously reduce real money demand, consumption, total wealth and welfare.     

Why do European consumers smoke? Responses from the rational addiction model

In this paper, we test whether European consumers are addictive smokers and, if this is the case, then whether such addictions can be explained by the rational addiction theory. To this end, we start from a non‐separable intertemporal utility function, which allows us to derive a demand function that is estimated using tobacco time‐series. The results are in accordance with the model of rational addiction for all European smokers. Thus, we observe the addictive character of tobacco consumption and, secondly, we note that the addiction is not the result of myopic consumer behaviour, but rather of the maximization of total utility, implying that consumers consider the future effects of their current decisions.     

Counter-intuitive effects of domestic law enforcement policies in the United States

In spite of the increase in domestic law enforcement policies in the U.S. drug related crime has followed a non-monotonic trend and cocaine and heroin prices, instead of increasing, have been dropping or remained stable over time. All this in a context of an increase in these drugs’ consumption during the 1980s and a small decrease during the 1990s. This paper provides an explanation to these counter-intuitive effects of domestic law enforcement policies. We model how drug lords respond to this type of policy within a conflict framework over the control of distribution activities for illegal drugs, which is novel. The model predicts drug distribution activities, drug prices and drug consumption. These predictions appear to be consistent with the empirical evidence in the United States.     

On Rothschild–Stiglitz as Competitive Pooling

Dubey and Geanakoplos (Q J Econ 117:1529–1570, 2002) have developed a theory of competitive pooling, which incorporates adverse selection and signaling into general equilibrium. By recasting the Rothschild–Stiglitz model of insurance in this framework, they find that a separating equilibrium always exists and is unique. We prove that their uniqueness result is not a consequence of the framework, but rather of their definition of refined equilibria. When other types of perturbations are used, the model allows for many pooling allocations to be supported as such: in particular, this is the case for pooling allocations that Pareto dominate the separating equilibrium.