A model of collateral, investment, and adverse selection

This paper characterizes the relationship between entrepreneurial wealth and aggregate investment under adverse selection. Its main finding is that such a relationship need not be monotonic. In particular, three results emerge from the analysis: (i) pooling equilibria, in which investment is independent of entrepreneurial wealth, are more likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively low; (ii) separating equilibria, in which investment is increasing in entrepreneurial wealth, are most likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively high and; (iii) for a given interest rate, an increase in entrepreneurial wealth may generate a discontinuous fall in investment.     

Exports,imports and growth: New evidence on Italy: 1863–2004

The nexus between trade and economic growth in Italy has been widely debated by historiography. However, there are no long run analyses on this topic that cover the whole span from Unification to present days. This paper contributes to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between real exports, imports and GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality varies across time. In the period prior to the First World War import growth led GDP growth that in turn led export growth. Conversely, in the post-Second World War period we have a strong bidirectionality between imports and exports consequent on the increase in intra-industry trade. We also find a weak support for export-led growth and growth-led imports. This suggests that exports were not the only or the main driver of economic growth. There was probably a multiplicity of factors at work, among which high rates of capital formation and the expansion of internal demand probably stood out.     

Multisensory design: Reaching out to touch the consumer

Touch plays an important, if often underacknowledged, role in our evaluation/appreciation of many different products. It is unsurprising, therefore, that there has been such a recent growth of interest in “tactile branding” and tactile marketing. This article reviews the evidence from the fields of marketing, psychology, and cognitive neuroscience, demonstrating just how important the feel of a product, not to mention the feel of its packaging, can be in determining people's overall product evaluation. Problems for tactile design associated with the growth of the aging population, and the growth of Internet‐based shopping, are highlighted. The critical role that touch can play in multisensory product design, appreciation, and marketing is also discussed, as is the increasingly frequent use by marketers of synesthetic correspondences to evoke tactile sensations via the visual and auditory modalities. We put forward the argument that tactile stimulation may influence multisensory product evaluation by means of affective ventriloquism: Our suggestion is that the hedonic attributes of a product perceived via one modality (such as touch) can “pull” (or bias) a person's estimates of the quality and pleasantness of the product derived from other sensory modalities into alignment, and by so doing, modulate a person's overall (multisensory) product experience. What is more, powerful mathematical modeling approaches now exist to predict the magnitude of this kind of intersensory (or crossmodal) interaction effect, hence offering the promise of a more scientific approach to tactile design/marketing in the coming years. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND ELECTIONS IN OECD DEMOCRACIES*

The purpose of this paper is to test for evidence of opportunistic “political business cycles” in a large sample of 18 OECD economies. Our results can be summarized as follows: 1) We find very little evidence of pre-electoral effects on economic outcomes, in particular, on GDP growth and unemployment; 2) We see some evidence of “political monetary cycles,” that is, expansionary monetary policy in election years; 3) We also observe indications of “political budget cycles,” or “loose” fiscal policy prior to elections; 4) Inflation exhibits a post-electoral jump, which could be explained by either the pre-electoral “loose” monetary and fiscal policies and/or by an opportunistic timing of increases in publicly controlled prices, or indirect taxes.     

The Quest for Quality: A Quality Adjusted Dynamic Regulatory Mechanism

In situations where quality is fixed, the widely used RPI‐X regulatory mechanism has a number of desirable properties, such as convergence to a second best optimum. Theoretical analysis of this mechanism in the case of endogenous quality is limited and therefore regulators have typically imposed constraints on the firm's quality choice in ad hoc manners, either by mandating quality levels, or by including quality adjustment factors in the RPI‐X mechanism. In this paper, we construct the rigorous theoretical counterpart of these manners of including quality measures in the constraints faced by a regulated firm. This mechanism converges to second best optimum. It works by offering the firm trade‐offs between prices and qualities based on the choice it made in the previous period; however, reflecting the practical problem valuing quality, the informational requirement to select these trade‐offs appropriately is qualitatively stronger than in the fixed quality case. Moreover, even when the informational problem can be overcome, we identify a further potential pitfall in the approach taken in practice by regulators, and show that, in order to avoid it, the regulated firm should be subject to an additional constraint, which we label the distance constraint, and which can be interpreted as requiring the firms to choose prices and qualities within a band in every period.     

Increasing inequality,consumer credit and financial fragility in an agent based macroeconomic model

We investigate the interplay between increasing inequality and consumer credit in a complex macroeconomic system with financially fragile heterogeneous households, firms and banks. Simulation results show that there are pros and cons of introducing consumer credit: on the one hand, for a certain time, it leads to lower unemployment through boosting aggregate demand; on the other hand, it accelerates the system tendency to the crisis. Since the increase of financial profits goes with a decline of households’ real wealth, a policy trade-off emerges.     

Online and official price indexes: Measuring Argentina's inflation

Prices collected from online retailers can be used to construct daily price indexes that complement official statistics. This paper studies their ability to match official inflation estimates in five Latin American countries, with a focus on Argentina, where official statistics have been heavily criticized in recent years. The data were collected between October 2007 and March 2011 from the largest supermarket in each country. In Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela, online price indexes approximate both the level and main dynamics of official inflation. By contrast, Argentina's online inflation rate is nearly three times higher than the official estimate.