Agricultural market integration in the OECD: A gravity-border effect approach

This paper uses the border effect estimate from a gravity model to assess the level of agricultural market trade integration among 22 OECD countries for the 1994–2003 period. Empirical analysis confirms that the use of a gravity equation derived from theory, in the estimation of border effect, matters. A representative estimate of the border effect shows that crossing a national border within the OECD induces an average trade-reduction effect of a factor 13. This average value masks differences that are quite substantial in market integration, with value for intra-EU trade being higher while that for trade between the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) is lower. The data show a process of strong integration in all the country-trade combinations involving CEECs. However, quite surprisingly, the intra-CEEC and OECD-CEEC integration processes are almost twice as strong as those in the EU-CEEC combination. Finally, the equivalent tariffs implied by the estimated border effects are not implausible compared to the actual range of direct protection measures.     

Explaining National Border Effects in the QUAD Food Trade

Using a ‘structural’ gravity‐like model, this paper first provides estimates of bilateral ‘border effects’ in food trade among the QUAD countries (the US, Canada, Japan and the EU) at the ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) four‐digit level (18 food sectors). It then investigates the underlying reasons for border effect, assessing the role played by policy barriers (tariffs, non‐tariff barriers to trade (NTBs) and domestic support) with respect to barriers unrelated to trade policy, such as information‐related costs, cultural proximity and preferences. In contrast to several previous findings, our results show that policy trade barriers, especially in the form of NTBs, are part of the story in explaining national border effects. Interestingly, in all country pair combinations, NTBs significantly dominate the trade reduction effect induced by tariffs. However, results show that elements linked to information‐related costs and consumer preferences matter a great deal in explaining the magnitude of border effects. These findings have implications for the economic and welfare‐related significance of national borders.     

Patterns and Determinants of International Trade Costs in the Food Industry

This paper documents patterns in international trade costs in processed foods for a large cross‐section of developing and developed countries, during the 1976–2000 period. A trade costs index is inferred from a micro‐founded gravity equation that incorporates bilateral ‘iceberg’ trade costs. For 2000, the trade costs, expressed as weighted average tariff equivalent, range from 73% for the north to 134% for the south countries. The time patterns show an average reduction of about 13% in the observed period that rises to 26% for the emerging countries. However, the same does not occur for south countries. On ranking the trade costs determinants, we find that, on average, geographical and historical factors seem to dominate those of infrastructure and institutions. However, trade policy emerges as an important determinant of the trade costs between north and emerging countries.     

Inflation breakeven in the Jarrow and Yildirim model and resulting pricing formulas

The Jarrow and Yildirim model for pricing inflation-indexed derivatives is still the main reference technique adopted in the inflation market. Despite its popularity it has some shortcomings, the most immediate of which is the difficulty of calibrating to market prices of options due to the large number of parameters involved. Since the market trades options on the inflation rate or index, we reformulate their model in terms of the notion of breakeven inflation. The first main advantage is the possibility of describing the prices of the most popular inflation derivatives as functions of just three parameters: breakeven volatility, the volatility of the CPI price index and the correlation between them. Secondly, the resulting Black–Scholes-implied volatilities are very straightforward to implement and the geometric interpretation of the model makes it intuitive to calibrate. Lastly, the model permits us to reproduce a realistic picture of the current state of the art of the derivatives market and, in particular, due to its simplicity, it is able to estimate the risk premium priced by the inflation market.     

The interest group theory of financial development: Evidence from regulation

We use a new dataset of de jure measures of trade, capital account, product market, and domestic financial regulation for 91 countries from 1973 to 2005 to test Rajan and Zingales’s (2003) interest group theory of financial development. In line with the theory, we find strong evidence that trade liberalization is a leading indicator of domestic financial liberalization. This result is robust to the use of different data frequencies (annual, 5-year intervals), estimation methods (OLS, 2SLS, system GMM) and a check for non-linear effects. However, in contrast to the theory, we do not find consistent evidence of an effect of capital account liberalization.     

Evolutionary policy targeting: towards a conceptual framework for effective policy intervention

This special issue reflects on innovation and industrial policy from the premise that economic growth can be based on the permanent transformation of an economic system via the emergence and/or transformation of multi-agent structures and their inherent competences and knowledge base. The process of emergence or transformation is conceived as being the result of entrepreneurial effort, or entrepreneurs reacting to external stimuli in a way that takes advantage of an evolving knowledge base. The same process, however, can be undermined by both market and institutional failures. Past research has clearly indicated the importance of institutional structures for innovation, but also that structures as they exist may not be ideal: some institutions involved in innovation may provide the wrong incentives, faulty information, or allocate insufficient resources to accomplish their goals or mandates; and they may fail to reduce uncertainty. The paper asks whether and how a targeted, co-evolutionary approach can help overcome a lack of dynamic coordination and other failures that originate in coincidence with the emergence of a complex form of industrial organisation, be it an innovation system, cluster or a new industrial sector. More specifically, it builds upon the extended industry life cycle (EILC) model and the notion of evolutionary targeting to explore the potential benefits (and drawbacks) of targeting biotechnology innovation systems (BISs).     

Keynes and probability: An assessment

Abstract

Most interpreters agree that Keynes had a wide-ranging, complex, ‘vision of the world’, which underlies his theoretical contributions. Whenever this is forgotten, as happens in the so-called neoclassical synthesis, not only the original Keynesian spirit goes lost but also, and especially, we lose substantive bricks for our theoretical constructions. The paper considers an important instance of this general rule; namely Keynes's views on the logic of probability, meant as the field concerning human behaviour in an uncertain world (hence connected to, but distinct from, the pure theory of probability, meant as a field of mathematics). The paper begins by recalling the main aspects of the classical and frequentist approaches to probability and the main criticisms they received, pertaining among other things to the limits of their applicability. We then consider Keynes's own views, stressing three aspects: the definition of probability as pertaining to the field of logic, the notion of uncertainty and of the ‘weight of the argument’, the ‘theory of groups’. We then discuss the subjective approach of de Finetti, Ramsey and Savage, and contrast it with Keynes's own views. Finally, we consider the implications of our analysis for the interpretation of Keynes's General Theory, and of his attitude towards econometrics.     

Off- and on-farm labour participation in Italian farm households

Most farms are family business, both in developed and developing countries. Labour allocation choices of farm household members are therefore relevant both for production choices in the farm and for rural labour markets. In particular, off-farm work and combination of on- and off-farm work (pluriactivity) are viewed as an efficient allocation of household labour resources. Moreover, labour choice of the children of the farm household is relevant for farm succession. In this article, we extend previous literature by estimating in an unified framework labour participation choices both for on- and off-farm work for operators, spouses and their eldest children in working age, using a five equation multivariate probit.     

Recursive equilibrium in stochastic OLG economies: Incomplete markets

We prove generic existence of recursive equilibrium for overlapping generations economies with uncertainty and incomplete financial markets. Generic here means in a residual set of utilities and endowments. The result holds provided there is sufficient intragenerational household heterogeneity, and transition probabilities and the asset payoff matrix satisfy mild regularity conditions. The paper also provides a new methodological technique to establish comparative statics, or perturbation, properties in such environments.