The Dynamics of Optimal Gradual Stabilizations

Inflation inertia may be quite tenacious because of the simultaneousinteraction between policy actions and inflationary expectationsunder imperfect credibility. This result is particularly relevantfor understanding some of the failed efforts to stabilize inflationin South America. This article deals with the issue of inertiain the framework of imperfect information about the type ofthe policymaker and extends the existing models to an infinitehorizon. Because policymakers do not have perfect control ofinflation, a "frivolous stabilizer" may deviate from the policiesof a "serious stabilizer" without necessarily being unmaskedimmediately. When the difference in the ability of "strong"and "weak" policymakers to control inflation is large, unexpectedinflation may be persistently negative for quite a while, thuscausing reduced economic activity and giving the indicationthat credibility is low. If the policymaker persists with thestabilization, this pattern gradually disappears as his reputationrises. But before this final stage the serious policymaker hasto compromise his inflation objective in view of adverse expectationsabout his type and pay the cost of imperfect credibility.     

Short Sales Are Almost Instantaneously Bad News: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the market reaction to short sales on an intraday basis in a market setting where short sales are transparent immediately following execution. We find a mean reassessment of stock value following short sales of up to −0.20 percent with adverse information impounded within fifteen minutes or twenty trades. Short sales executed near the end of the financial year and those related to arbitrage and hedging activities are associated with a smaller price reaction; trades near information events precipitate larger price reactions. The evidence is generally weaker for short sales executed using limit orders relative to market orders.     

The liquidity of automated exchanges: new evidence from German Bund futures

Previous literature has suggested that automated exchanges such as the Deutsche Terminborse (DTB) may be less liquid than their open-outcry counterparts such as the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE), although evidence provided on this issue has been mixed. This paper provides new evidence on the relative magnitudes of bid-ask spreads in the Bund contract traded on the DTB and LIFFE using intraday data from a period in which each exchanges share of total Bund trading was closer than previous research. The findings suggest that quoted bid-ask spreads are wider on the LIFFE than the DTB, even after controlling for their determinants. Furthermore, bid-ask spreads on the DTB increase more rapidly as price volatility increases relative to the LIFFE. Overall, this evidence implies that while automated exchanges are capable of providing more liquidity than floor traded exchanges, the relative performance of automated exchanges deteriorates during periods of higher volatility.     

Comment on: “Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel”

This paper is a pioneering attempt to take a systematic look at the effects of terror in Israel. It presents a theoretical analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of terror followed by empirical evidence for Israel. The theory part utilizes a steady state version of Blanchard (1985) finite lives model in which each individual faces a constant probability of death at every moment. The empirical part is, for the most part, based on level and first difference VAR's between GNP, non durable consumption, investment and exports (all in per capita terms) augmented by a proxy for the intensity of terror and a measure of the real rate of interest. The theory is used as a broad guiding device to qualitatively guide the empirical work rather than for providing a precise structure to be estimated.The main implications of the theory are that, by raising the probability of death, an increase in terror reduces investment, production and consumption. Essentially, by increasing the probability of death d, an increase in terror activity reduces the incentive to save and with it the steady state level of capital, production and consumption. In parallel the increase in d raises the interest rate and reduces total wealth. The paper augments Blanchard's model with a welfare maximizing government that responds to the increase in terror activity by raising government expenditures designed to partially offset its impact on the probability of death.The main results of the empirical part are that, in Israel, the terror variable exerts a negative and significant impact on the macroeconomic variables mentioned above. A counterfactual experiment implies that if terror continues at the level it had been at (between the last quarter of 2002 and the third quarter of 2003) up to the third quarter of 2005 then, in comparison to a no terror benchmark, annual GDP per capita is lower by roughly 2 percent per year, non durable consumption per capita is lower by 1 percent per year and the level of investment per capita is lower by 10 percent annually. The paper also contains an empirical analysis of the differential impact of terror on domestic versus foreign tourists.My discussion focusses on possible broader interpretations of the main empirical results of the paper in light of its theoretical model and of the Israeli political and economic scene since the inception of the Oslo peace process in the mid nineties.     

U-Convolutional model for spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting

The increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy in power systems brings operational challenges. One way of supporting them is by enhancing the predictability of renewables through accurate forecasting. Convolutional Neural Networks (Convnets) provide a successful technique for processing space-structured multi-dimensional data. In our work, we propose the U-Convolutional model to predict hourly wind speeds for a single location using spatio-temporal data with multiple explanatory variables as an input. The U-Convolutional model is composed of a U-Net part, which synthesizes input information, and a Convnet part, which maps the synthesized data into a single-site wind prediction. We compare our approach with advanced Convnets, a fully connected neural network, and univariate models. We use time series from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as datasets and select temperature and u- and v-components of wind as explanatory variables. The proposed models are evaluated at multiple locations (totaling 181 target series) and multiple forecasting horizons. The results indicate that our proposal is promising for spatio-temporal wind speed prediction, with results that show competitive performance on both time horizons for all datasets.     

Blended value and female entrepreneurial performance: social and economic aspects of education and technology transfer

International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal - We reviewed the literature on institutional forecasters of entrepreneurial action across international settings. Our objective was to explain...     

Local inequality and project choice: Theory and evidence from Ecuador

This paper provides evidence consistent with elite capture of Social Fund investment projects in Ecuador. Exploiting a unique combination of data sets on village-level income distributions, Social Fund project administration, and province-level electoral results, we test a simple model of project choice when local political power is unequally distributed. In accordance with the predictions of the model, poorer villages are more likely to receive projects that provide excludable (private) goods to the poor, such as latrines. Controlling for poverty, more unequal communities are less likely to receive such projects. Consistent with the hypothesis of elite capture, these results are sensitive to the specific measures of inequality and elite power used in the empirical analysis, and are strongest for expenditure shares at the top of the distribution.     

购买学101

Sign buyers reward basic communication skills, a solid reputation annd customer service with loyalty.商标购买商奖励基本的沟通技巧坚定的信誉高效的客户服务——忠诚度我们的身体经常开玩笑地告诉我们,信任至关重要,它相当于是一个人的内脏。根据分析,可靠性不但具有一定的盈利空间,同时也直截了当地摆出了它独特的观点。因此,很多商家都会使用“可靠性“这个标准来决定是否租用一家商标公司。