Business cycle,storage, and energy prices

This study examines the effect of the state of the economy and inventory on interest-adjusted bases and expected returns for five energy commodities. We find that interest-adjusted bases and returns have a business cycle pattern. Consistent with the theory of storage, demand shocks near business cycle peaks generate negative interest-adjusted bases and positive returns. In recessions, the bases become positive, and the average returns are negative. Our regression results also show that the interest-adjusted bases of energy commodities are counter-cyclical and the expected returns are pro-cyclical. For petroleum commodities, inventory has a significant effect on interest-adjusted bases at low levels of inventory, whereas at high inventory levels the effect of inventory on the bases is weak. Finally, we find that the bases and economic conditions predict spot returns in energy commodity markets.     

The impact of Financial Times Deutschland news on stock prices: post-announcement drifts and inattention of investors

In this paper, we analyze the impact of Financial Times Deutschland (FTD) news on stock prices and trading volumes. Based on a sample of all news about German DAX, MDAX, and SDAX companies published in the news section of the FTD between 2006 and 2010, our results show that articles that contain positive (negative) information are associated with significantly positive (negative) abnormal returns and abnormal trading volumes around their publication. Furthermore, our results show an initial underreaction to these articles and subsequent post-publication drift. Based on the inattention hypothesis, we show that high-attention news (proxied by abnormal trading volume) almost instantaneously moves stock prices to their new valuation levels, whereas the price adjustment process takes much longer following low-attention news. Our results also hold within multivariate regressions where we additionally control for stock-specific characteristics (e.g., institutional ownership, size, and price-to-book ratio) as well as other attention-grabbing events (as measured by ad hoc announcements and cover-page news articles). Finally, we show that results primarily hold in the non-crisis period.     

Patterns of Aging-Related Changes on the Way to 100

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate dynamic properties of age trajectories of physiological indices and their effects on mortality risk and longevity using longitudinal data on more than 5,000 individuals collected in biennial examinations of the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) original cohort during about 50 subsequent years of follow-up. We first performed empirical analyses of the FHS longitudinal data. We evaluated average age trajectories of indices describing physiological states for different groups of individuals and established their connections with mortality risk. These indices include body mass index, diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, pulse rate, level of blood glucose, hematocrit, and serum cholesterol. To be able to investigate dynamic mechanisms responsible for changes in the aging human organisms using available longitudinal data, we further developed a stochastic process model of human mortality and aging, by including in it the notions of “physiological norms,” “allostatic adaptation and allostatic load,” “stress resistance,” and other characteristics associated with the internal process of aging and the effects of external disturbances. In this model, the persistent deviation of physiological indices from their normal values contributes to an increase in morbidity and mortality risks. We used the stochastic process model in the statistical analyses of longitudinal FHS data. We found that different indices have different average age patterns and different dynamic properties. We also found that age trajectories of long-lived individuals differ from those of the shorter-lived members of the FHS original cohort for both sexes. Using methods of statistical modeling, we evaluated “normal” age trajectories of physiological indices and the dynamic effects of allostatic adaptation. The model allows for evaluating average patterns of aging-related decline in stress resistance. This effect is captured by the narrowing of the U-shaped mortality risk (considered a function of physiological state) with age. We showed that individual indices and their rates of change with age, as well as other measures of individual variability, manifested during the life course are important contributors to mortality risks. The advantages and limitations of the approach are discussed.     

Target price forecasts: The roles of the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment

This paper reveals that in addition to fundamental factors, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment play an important role in analysts’ target price formation. Analysts’ forecasts of short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth are shown to be important explanatory variables for target prices; equally, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment are also shown to explain target price levels and especially target price biases. Our analysis additionally reveals that analysts place greater weight on these two non-fundamental factors in settings with greater task complexity and to some extent in those with greater resource constraints. Conversely, on balance, the results suggest that this increased reliance does not translate into an increased impact per unit of each non-fundamental factor on forecast bias. Finally, our results show that target prices are useful in predicting future stock returns beyond earnings forecasts and commonly used risk proxies. However, in an internally consistent fashion, the informativeness of target prices for future returns is significantly reduced when greater weight is placed on either the 52-week high or recent investor sentiment in the target price formation process.     

Do banks price discriminate spatially? Evidence from small business lending in local credit markets

In this paper we explore the effects of bank–borrower physical proximity on price and non-price aspects of small business lending in local credit markets. Along the price dimension, our analysis reveals that interest rates increase with bank–borrower distance and decrease with the distance between borrower and other competing banks. Along the quantity dimension, we observe that more distant borrowers are more likely to experience binding credit limits. We also show that the quantity effects of bank–borrower distance are concentrated among less transparent firms. Our findings are consistent with pricing based on marginal costs that reflect information-based factors, and are in contrast to the established paradigm, where banks adopt spatial discriminatory pricing rules when lending to small-sized enterprises.     

Momentum strategies of German mutual funds

The existence of the momentum effect in stock returns has been documented for the US (e.g., Jegadeesh and Titman in J. Finance 48(1), 65–91, 1993) and many other national equity markets worldwide (e.g., Griffin et al. in J. Finance 58(6), 2515–2547, 2003). However, little is known about the active employment of momentum strategies among institutional investors outside the US. This paper provides first evidence of momentum behavior among German mutual funds. We find the fund trades to follow stock returns on an aggregated institutional level. Moreover, we detect significant momentum behavior among funds with a European and global equity focus, as well as among funds predominantly investing in Asia. In contrast, German funds do not seem to engage in momentum strategies when trading domestic stocks. While only half the funds in our sample trade in accordance with past returns, 66 % of the funds within the largest size quintile follow momentum strategies. Finally, we do not find momentum trading funds to outperform the other funds.     

A partial race to the bottom: corporate tax developments in emerging and developing economies

This paper assembles a new dataset on corporate income tax regimes in 50 emerging and developing economies over 1996–2007 and analyzes their impact on corporate tax revenues and domestic and foreign investment. It computes effective tax rates to take account of special regimes, such as tax holidays, temporarily reduced rates and increased investment allowances. There is evidence of a partial race to the bottom: countries have been under pressure to lower tax rates in order to lure and boost investment. In the case of standard tax systems (i.e. tax rules applying under normal circumstances), the effective tax rate reductions have not been larger than those witnessed in advanced economies, and revenues have held up well over the sample period. However, a race to the bottom is evident among special regimes, most notably in the case of Africa, creating effectively a parallel tax system where rates have fallen to almost zero. Regression analysis reveals higher tax rates adversely affect domestic investment and FDI, but do raise revenues in the short run.     

Tax and the Crisis*

Did taxation play any role in precipitating the financial crisis? Are there lessons to be drawn for future tax reform priorities? This paper reviews the main channels by which tax effects might have been felt and which may require forceful attention. These include in particular the large tax biases favouring debt finance and, in some countries, investment in housing. The complexities of national tax codes, and the international interaction between them, have, moreover, encouraged the use of complicated financial instruments and international tax planning, reducing transparency. Tax distortions did not cause the crisis – in the sense that there are no obvious tax changes likely to have triggered it – but they may well have contributed by leading to higher leverage and more complexity than would otherwise have been the case. Most of these distortions have long been a source of concern, but dealing with them may be more important than previously supposed.     

How do valuations impact outcomes of asset sales with heterogeneous bidders?

Differences among bidder type-specific outcomes of asset sales are theoretically related to differences in bidders’ valuations and participation. The lead application to quantify these relations is takeover auctions: bidders are classified into strategic and financial, and bids are available. I structurally estimate valuations from all bids. The positive difference in premiums between strategic and financial acquirers is driven by the difference in dispersions of valuations (e.g., strategic bidders’ synergies are more dispersed) and the set of auction participants. The difference in average valuations is relatively unimportant. My approach can help explain outcomes of asset sales, even in settings with limited bidder data.