On the Accuracy of Economic Observations: Do Sub-Saharan Trade Statistics Mean Anything?

African governments are being urged to promote commodity exports,yet without reliable trade statistics it is difficult to formulateappropriate policies to achieve this goal. This article assessesthe accuracy of U.N. trade statistics by comparing the declaredvalue of African exports, plus a transport and insurance costfactor, with partner countries' reported import values. Theresults show that major discrepancies often exist between thetwo, with false invoicing and smuggling apparently responsiblefor much of the difference. Although major disparities existin data on trade with developed countries, the average differencesin intra-African trade statistics are substantially larger.Statistical tests show that these data cannot be relied on toindicate the level, composition, or even direction and trendsin African trade.     

Valuation of synthetic CDOs

In this paper, we consider the valuation of a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), a pool of underlying credit risky securities, “partitioned” into several tranches, each of which absorbs losses in accordance with its size and seniority. We derive a closed-form solution for credit spreads of the tranches of homogeneous pools and find an approximation for the credit spreads of inhomogeneous pools. The method leads to an accurate estimation of the credit spreads of synthetic CDOs and can be used in risk management applications.     

Is Private Saving in Latin America and the Caribbean Different?

Private saving and economic growth are intimately linked, and low saving rates in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have often been held responsible for disappointing growth in the region. Thus, identifying factors that spur saving is critical. This paper surveys previous empirical studies on LAC, highlighting contradictions, omissions and in some cases inconclusiveness of findings. Relying on a large dataset and a nested econometric framework, it analyzes private saving patterns and explores the role of its determinants in LAC, across LAC sub‐regions and compared with other regions. While the results highlight great heterogeneity in private saving rates within LAC and compared with the rest of the world, saving determinants are broadly the same notwithstanding some differences in sensitivity and contributions' sizes, and include its lag, income, demographics and public saving.     

LOGISTICS MANAGERS' LEARNING ENVIRONMENTS AND FIRM PERFORMANCE

Dynamic changes in the business environment are significantly impacting supply chain logistics, resulting in unprecedented personnel demands. Organizational theorists suggest that personnel management is associated with better performance. However, relatively little is known about effective human resource practices within the logistics industry. The learning organization concept offers logistics organizations a theoretical rationale for promoting learning environments to better leverage employees' knowledge, skills, and abilities and improve performance. This research examines logistics managers' perceptions of individual level learning behavior within their organizations and its relationship to firm performance.