Risk analysis of new maize technology in Zaire: a portfolio approach

Risk associated with the adoption of new maize technology and the impact of mandatory cotton production on traditional farmers in the Kasai Oriental Region of Zaire are evaluated within a portfolio context using a quadratic programming model. Seasonal net returns for farm plans including four levels of maize technology in combination with staple food crops are evaluated, with and without mandatory cotton production. The results indicate that cropping systems that include new maize technology are risk-efficient relative to local maize varieties while mandatory cotton production is not risk-efficient at the prevalent price and yield levels in the farming system.     

Development strategy for rural areas

In September 1973, the President of the World Bank, Robert S. McNamara, made a challenging address to the Governors of the Central Banks of the member states of the international Monetary Fund. The main subject in his speech was the problem of poverty particularly in rural areas of developing countries, and the design for a strategy for its abolition.     

Stock market efficiency the evidence from FTA indices of eleven major stock markets

Summary This article presents a survey of recent literature on stock market efficiency, with special reference to the US and Dutch stock markets. Additionally, models are specified and estimated for the daily return since 1987 on FTA indices for eleven major stock markets, allowing for non-normality, heteroskedasticity, leverage effects and autocorrelation. The leverage effect and positive autocorrelation are characteristics of some of the indices investigated. The magnitude of the autocorrelation, however, is so small, that no profitable arbitrage opportunities arise and weak-form efficiency of these stock markets is not rejected.     

Technological Threat and Opportunity Assessment

One of the major challenges in the management of innovation is a practical and useful implementation of technology forecasting. This article proposes the concept of aniticpating the technological future, and that a structured approach to this concept could be an invaluable aid to technical decision-making. The notion of technological threat and opportunity assessment is presented as a useful framework for anticipating technological change. This notion is based on a dual approach.Firstly, a rapidly changing global technological landscape necessitates keeping track of technological developments. However, since we are dealing with innovation (rather than mere invention), the market implications are as important as the technological ones and have to be accounted for as such. Secondly, any organisation could be considered to be technology-based to some or other degree, implying that technologies have the ability to affect the bottom line of the organisation in some way. It is thus required to assess the business impact of such technologies, typically through a technology or innovation audit.Having assessed specific technological threats and opportunities facing the organisation, an innovation strategy needs to be developed in response to the identified threats and opportunities. Various possible offensive and/or defensive responses should be considered, culminating in the selection and implementation of an optimal strategy.     

Health benefits of tunneling through the Chinese environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)

In this paper, we first add to what is a growing literature on the existence and nature of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model for developing countries, by testing for the existence of an EKC for China using a panel data set of city-specific, annual ambient levels of SO₂ pollution. We find some support for both the typical inverted-U-shaped relationship and an N-shaped, cubic configuration. More significantly, we then explore the possibility of China's “tunneling” through the EKC, by using newer, cleaner technologies, and thereby avoiding some of the environmental degradation that had often accompanied economic growth. Specifically, we estimate and economically value the health benefits realizable to Chinese cities from successful efforts to “tunnel” under the EKC over the next generation.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungÜbersetzt von Gerhard Tintner, WienÜbersetzt von Ragnar Nurkse, z. Zt. Wienaus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried, WienÜbersetzt von Paul Brüll, Wien.Aus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE BSE SCARE

The economic aspects of the outbreak of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in British cattle herds are investigated. On balance, a non-interventionist approach is most likely to be the least-cost method of dealing with the BSE problem, where costs include the risks of humans contracting Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD). There is no case for compensating farmers for the historic cost of building up infected herds.