The Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Stock Market Crash A Random Walk With an Occasional Surprise

In the first of a regular new series of Special Briefs which will review developments in economic theory and their practical implications, Dr Alexandra Hardie of Exeter university explains and analyses the efficient market hypothesis.     

Effect of environmental dynamism on relational governance in manufacturer-supplier relationships: A contingency framework and an empirical test

The effect of dynamism in the downstream (i.e., customer and competitive) environment on the manner in which manufacturers manage their upstream (i.e., supplier) relationships is not well understood in the literature. While some prior studies suggest that manufacturers will adopt relational governance with suppliers in response to dynamism in the downstream environment, other studies suggest that manufacturers will avoid relational governance with suppliers when faced with environmental dynamism. Drawing from the literature on interparty learning, the authors develop a conceptual framework wherein the validating conditions for each conclusion are identified. Results from a survey of 221 manufacturing organizations show that in dynamic environments, manufacturers adopt (avoid) relational governance with suppliers under two conditions: (1) when manufacturer collaborative belief is high (low) and (2) when supplier knowledge is high (low). The results are discussed in terms of their managerial and future research implications. Ashwin W. Joshi (ajoshi@schulich.yorku.ca) is an associate professor of marketing in the Schulich School of Business at York University (Canada). He received his Ph.D. from Queen's University (Canada). His research has been published in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Psychology and Marketing, theJournal of Business Research, and theJournal of Business-to-Business Marketing, among other journals. His research interests are in the areas of business-to-business marketing, sales force management, and new product development. Alexandra J. Campbell (acampbel@schulich.yorku.ca) is an associate professor of marketing in the Schulich School of Business at York University (Canada). She received her Ph.D. from the University of Toronto (Canada). Her research has been published in theJournal of International Business Studies, theEuropean Management Journal, Long Range Planning, andIndustrial Marketing Management, among other journals. Her research interests are in the areas of buyer-supplier relationships, international business, and customer relationship management.     

Modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons

Despite an extensive body of research, the best way to model the dependence of exchange rates remains an open question. In this paper we present a new approach which employs a flexible time-varying copula model. It allows the conditional correlation between exchange rates to be both time-varying and modeled independently from the marginal distributions. We introduce a dynamic specification for the correlation using the Fisher transformation. Applied to Euro/US dollar and Japanese Yen/US dollar, our results reveal a significantly time-varying correlation, dependent on the past return realizations. We find that a time-varying copula with the proposed correlation specification gives better results than alternative dynamic benchmark models. The dynamic copula model outperforms at six different time horizons, ranging from hourly to daily, confirming the model specification.     

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian,economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term

What are the economic effects of the Ukraine war for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of Europe? In this study, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) sheds light on the immediate consequences on the one hand, but also on the medium-term structural changes caused by the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian crisis. Pre-war, almost 19 m people lived in those regions that are currently directly affected. Refugee inflows to the rest of Europe are likely to be at least three times greater than in 2015/2016. As Black Sea ports come under Russian assault, Ukraine has lost its ability to sell more than half of its exports, primarily agricultural commodities and metals. Western financial support will become ever more important as the war continues. Turning to Russia, sanctions will have a very serious impact on that country’s economy and financial sector. Despite being partly hamstrung by the fact that a large proportion of Russian reserve assets are frozen in the EU and G7, the central bank managed to stabilise financial markets by a combination of confidence-building and hard-steering measures: capital controls, FX controls, regulatory easing for financial institutions, and a doubling of the key policy rate. The medium-term and long-term outlook is negative. As a result of the war and the sanctions, the rest of Europe faces a surge in already high inflation; this will weigh on real incomes and will depress economic growth. Many European countries rely heavily on Russia for oil and gas imports: import shares are over 75% in Czechia, Latvia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria with respect to natural gas; Slovakia, Lithuania, Poland, and Finland with respect to oil and petroleum; and Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark, Lithuania, Greece, and Bulgaria with respect to solid fuels. Aside from energy, the fallout via trade for the rest of Europe is likely to be small. Non-energy trade and investment links between Russia and many European countries have declined in importance since 2013. There are four main areas of structural change and lasting impact for the EU (and Europe more broadly) as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. First, the EU will get more serious about defence. Second, the green transition will gather pace. Third, broader Eurasian economic integration will be unwound. And fourth, the EU accession prospects for countries in Southeast Europe could (and should) improve.

     

Tracking farmland investment in Australia: Institutional finance and the politics of data mapping

Tracking farmland purchases is central to interpreting transnational finance's growing power in agrarian restructuring. Australia's public Register of foreign land ownership reveals little about agrarian change, however. In presenting the first comprehensive mapping of farmland purchases made between 2008 and 2020, this paper examines the ways that financial investments are altering farm ownership patterns in Australia. First, we show that most foreign owned land has been purchased by only 10 pastoral companies, which are implicated in speculative development activities. Second, foreign investment in cropping and horticulture is more significant than it appears in the Register, with investments in agricultural infrastructure increasingly driving land use change. Third, we illustrate the deepening entrenchment of institutional finance. By engaging with the findings from our dataset as well as with the politics of data that have shaped the availability of information, the paper progresses understandings of the financialization of farmland in both its material and ideational aspects.     

Inside the black box of high-growth firms in a crisis-hit economy: corporate strategy,employee human capital and R&D capabilities

In an attempt to open the black box of high-growth firms within turbulent economic environments, this paper explores the role of corporate strategy, employee human capital and R&D capabilities in achieving exceptional growth performance in a crisis-hit economy. Relative and absolute growth measures based on both employment and sales are computed utilizing survey data on 1500 firms in the midst of the Greek crisis. Our findings indicate that adopting a geographical diversification strategy significantly increases the likelihood of becoming a fast-growing firm, irrespective of the growth metric used. Entering in diverse product markets and taking advantage of R&D capabilities appear to additionally contribute to relative employment change in HGFs of smaller size. Based on the absolute employment growth indicator, we provide some evidence that HGFs of larger size are able to grow fast through product diversification, acquiring other firms or by investing on training low-skilled employees. Nevertheless, hiring already highly educated persons seems to matter only for sales HGFs, while research collaborations are found to negatively affect the probability of growing fast in terms of sales.

     

Editorial to the special issue “Structured Literature Reviews in Entrepreneurship Research-Taking Stock and Setting the Agenda”

Management Review Quarterly - Entrepreneurship as a phenomenon has changed a lot over the last years. At the same time entrepreneurship as an interdisciplinary research field has seen strong growth...