What are the economic effects of the Ukraine war for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of Europe? In this study, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) sheds light on the immediate consequences on the one hand, but also on the medium-term structural changes caused by the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian crisis. Pre-war, almost 19 m people lived in those regions that are currently directly affected. Refugee inflows to the rest of Europe are likely to be at least three times greater than in 2015/2016. As Black Sea ports come under Russian assault, Ukraine has lost its ability to sell more than half of its exports, primarily agricultural commodities and metals. Western financial support will become ever more important as the war continues. Turning to Russia, sanctions will have a very serious impact on that country’s economy and financial sector. Despite being partly hamstrung by the fact that a large proportion of Russian reserve assets are frozen in the EU and G7, the central bank managed to stabilise financial markets by a combination of confidence-building and hard-steering measures: capital controls, FX controls, regulatory easing for financial institutions, and a doubling of the key policy rate. The medium-term and long-term outlook is negative. As a result of the war and the sanctions, the rest of Europe faces a surge in already high inflation; this will weigh on real incomes and will depress economic growth. Many European countries rely heavily on Russia for oil and gas imports: import shares are over 75% in Czechia, Latvia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria with respect to natural gas; Slovakia, Lithuania, Poland, and Finland with respect to oil and petroleum; and Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark, Lithuania, Greece, and Bulgaria with respect to solid fuels. Aside from energy, the fallout via trade for the rest of Europe is likely to be small. Non-energy trade and investment links between Russia and many European countries have declined in importance since 2013. There are four main areas of structural change and lasting impact for the EU (and Europe more broadly) as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. First, the EU will get more serious about defence. Second, the green transition will gather pace. Third, broader Eurasian economic integration will be unwound. And fourth, the EU accession prospects for countries in Southeast Europe could (and should) improve.
With 25% of the UK population predicted to be obese by 2010, the costs to individuals and society are set to rise. Due to the extra economic and social pressures obesity causes, there is an increasing need to understand what motivates and prevents consumers from eating a healthy diet so as to be able to tailor policy interventions to specific groups in society. In so doing, it is important to explore potential variations in attitudes, motivation and behaviour as a function of age and gender. Both demographic factors are easily distinguished within society and a future intervention study which targets either, or both, of these would likely be both feasible and cost‐effective for policy makers. As part of a preliminary study, six focus groups (total n = 43) were conducted at the University of Reading in November 2006, with groups segmented on the basis of age and gender. In order to gather more sensitive information, participants were also asked to fill out a short anonymous questionnaire before each focus group began, relating to healthy eating, alcohol consumption and body dissatisfaction. Making use of thematic content analysis, results suggested that most participants were aware of the type of foods that contribute to a healthy diet and the importance of achieving a healthy balance within a diet. However, they believed that healthy eating messages were often conflicting, and were uncertain about where to find information on the topic. Participants believed that the family has an important role in educating children about eating habits. Despite these similarities, there were a number of key differences among the groups in terms of their reasons for making food choices. Older participants (60+ years old) were more likely to make food choices based on health considerations. Participants between the ages of 18–30 were less concerned with this link, and instead focused on issues of food preparation and knowledge, prices and time. Younger female participants said they had more energy when they ate healthier diets; however, very often their food choices related to concern with their appearance. Older female participants also expressed this concern within the questionnaire, rather than in the group discussions. Overall, these results suggest that consumer motivations for healthy eating are diverse and that this must be considered by government, retailers and food producers. 相似文献
Abstract. We analyse the relationship between managerial ownership and company performance, testing the incentive and entrenchment hypothesis. Differently from previous literature, we focus on small and medium-sized private enterprises which constitute an important part of the German economy. We use a panel of 356 companies in the German business-related service sector for the years 1997–2000. Our findings are that performance, measured by survey-based profit information, is increasing in managerial ownership by up to around 40 per cent. We do not find a significant entrenchment effect, possibly because, at levels at which managers could become entrenched, they already bear a large proportion of the costs and have therefore an incentive to maximize company value. 相似文献
AbstractAims: This analysis investigated the cost-effectiveness of panitumumab plus mFOLFOX6 (oxaliplatin, 5-fluorouracil, and leucovorin) compared with bevacizumab plus mFOLFOX6 in the first-line treatment of patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).Materials and methods: The cost-effectiveness analysis was developed from a third-party payer perspective in the US and was implemented using a partitioned survival model with health states for first-line treatment (progression-free), disease progression with and without subsequent active treatment, and death. Survival analyses of patients with wild-type RAS mCRC from the PEAK head-to-head clinical trial of panitumumab vs bevacizumab were performed to estimate time in the model health states. Additional data from PEAK informed the amount of each drug consumed, duration of therapy, subsequent therapy use, and toxicities related to mCRC treatment. Literature and US public data sources were used to estimate unit costs associated with treatment and duration of subsequent active therapies. Utility weights were calculated from patient-level data from panitumumab trials in the first-, second-, and third-line settings. A life-time perspective was taken with future costs and outcomes discounted at 3% per annum. Scenario, one-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.Results: Compared with bevacizumab, the use of panitumumab resulted in an incremental cost of US $60,286, and an incremental quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 0.445, translating into a cost per QALY gained of US $135,391 in favor of panitumumab. Results were sensitive to wastage and dose rounding assumptions modeled.Limitations: Progression-free and overall survival were extrapolated beyond the follow-up of the primary analysis using fitted parametric curves. Costs and quality of life were estimated from multiple and different data sources.Conclusions: The efficacy of panitumumab in extending progression-free and overall survival and improving quality of life makes it a cost-effective option for first-line treatment of patients with wild-type RAS mCRC compared with bevacizumab. 相似文献
As social systems, organizations need to ensure connectivity between established and deviant communication streams to accomplish organizational innovation. This article explores elements and systemic strategies of connectivity formation for the introduction of an organizational innovation such as the concept of crowd innovation in the public sector. For public administrations, crowd innovation represents an organizational innovation since it implies broad participation and the integration of external ideas, and thus often opposes prevalent organizational structures. Our findings contribute to the knowledge on systemic innovation management and suggest that public managers can enhance connectivity formation by addressing semantics, routines, practices, roles, and redundancies. 相似文献
The Inca heritage is intermingled in a long trajectory of histories, creations and revivals that have constantly contributed to the renewal of its imagery. This paper analyses an important Inca revival movement that has been crucial in the making and remaking of Southern Andean identities: Indigenismo Cusqueño (1905–1945). This Cuzco version of Indigenismo was a regionalist urban middle class movement that emerged at the turn of the 20th century. I analyse how these Indigenistas, or an elite of intellectual ‘legislators’ from Cuzco shaped the regional identity through the ‘recovery’ of an authenticity founded in the legacy of the ancient Empire. Four decades of the production of a heritage initiated a so-called ‘folklorisation’ process that led to the mobilisation of the peasant mass through the enactment of an ancient Inca ritual in 1944. By staging performances of identity and promoting wide participation, the Indigenistas aimed at promoting a ‘regionalist’ identity campaign, attracting tourism-related investments and transforming the Inca capital into the ‘cradle of Peruvianness’. 相似文献
This paper analyzes the contribution of anticipated capital and labor tax shocks to business cycle volatility in an estimated New Keynesian business cycle model. While fiscal policy accounts for about 15% of output variance at business cycle frequencies, this mostly derives from anticipated government spending shocks. Tax shocks, both anticipated and unanticipated, contribute little to the fluctuations of real variables. However, anticipated capital tax shocks do explain a sizable part of inflation fluctuations, accounting for up to 12% of its variance. In line with earlier studies, news shocks in total account for about 50% of output variance. Further decomposing this news effect, we find permanent total factor productivity news shocks to be most important. When looking at the federal level instead of total government, the importance of anticipated tax and spending shocks significantly increases, suggesting that fiscal policy at the subnational level typically counteracts the effects of federal fiscal policy shocks. 相似文献
This study examines whether sanctions imposed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) against individual auditors result in greater auditor conservatism. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we find that clients of sanctioned individual auditors have lower discretionary accruals in the post-sanction period than in the pre-sanction period when compared to a matched control group of clients audited by individual auditors who were not sanctioned. Our findings suggest that sanctions imposed by the CSRC on individual auditors can lead to improvements in audit quality by increasing the conservatism of the sanctioned auditors. That is, individual auditors are more likely to resist their clients’ income-increasing accounting manipulations after being sanctioned by the CSRC. 相似文献