Stock Recommendations for Politically Connected Firms

Social network connections of corporations can significantly affect operating performance and firm valuation. Political connections are one form of social networking which often manifests into improved firm profitability as a result of political favors granted by politicians. However, analysts often have greater difficulty forecasting the earnings of politically connected firms than those of non‐connected firms. This is because politicians often grant political favors to firms in an unpredictable manner making it difficult for market participants to time precisely when political benefits will translate into higher firm profitability. I examine how political connections affect analysts’ stock recommendations using a unique dataset of political contributions in the US over the period 1993–2012. I show that analysts’ recommendations are less profitable for firms with high connectedness than for firms with low (or no) connectedness. I also find that analysts are less effective in translating earnings forecasts into profitable recommendations for highly connected firms. Overall, the findings suggest that analysts do not impound all of the information concerning corporate political connections efficiently into their primary research outputs.     

'Biological' revolution and strategies for innovation in pharmaceutical companies

Fundamental advances in the life sciences are exerting a profound influence on the structure of the pharmaceutical industry and the strategies of drug companies. The 'biological' revolution makes it possible to apply a scientific method to drug research. This paper argues that pharmaceutical companies can take advantage of the new method only if they encourage 'openness' of their research. We also offer a framework to explain why innovations in this industry increasingly result from networks of agents with complementary skills and resources. Greater use of scientific knowledge implies that important information for innovation can be expressed in relatively general and universal forms. This eases information exchange, and encourages specialisation and division of labour in drug R&D and marketing. Finally, the possibility of a division of labour in innovation opens new opportunities for medium-sized national pharmaceutical firms in Europe. Provided that they found their strategies on high-quality research in specialised niches, they can set up alliances with partners that possess complementary knowledge, and supply resources for clinical development and international marketing.     

Infrastructure investment and Spanish economic growth, 1850-1935

This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure investment on Spanish economic growth between 1850 and 1935. Using new infrastructure data and VAR techniques, this paper shows that the growth impact of local-scope infrastructure investment was positive, but returns to investment in large nation-wide networks were not significantly different from zero. Two complementary explanations are suggested for the last result. On the one hand, public intervention and the application of non-efficiency investment criteria were very intense in large network construction. On the other hand, returns to new investment in large networks might have decreased dramatically once the basic links were constructed.     

Bribery and investment: Firm‐level evidence from Africa and Latin America

Research summary : Using a unique database that measures firm‐level bribery in Africa and Latin America, we corroborate extant results in the literature that paying bribes deters firm investments in fixed assets. Our contribution is to explore four mechanisms. By adopting a reverse causality approach (Gelman and Imbens, 2013), we find evidence consistent with one of them: short‐term oriented firms prefer to bribe rather than invest in fixed assets, while the opposite is true for firms with a long‐term orientation. We rule out that bribe payments drain financial resources for investment, that firms that invest do not bribe because fixed assets make them less flexible and more vulnerable to future bribes, and that less efficient firms bribe rather than invest. Managerial summary : We ask whether, along with ethical issues, bribing affects the behavior and performance of firms in Africa and Latin America. Our statistical analysis shows that bribe payments do not reduce the short‐term performance of firms, but frustrate investments in fixed assets, which is the foundation of firms' long‐term growth. It is like seeking a job via nepotism or education. Nepotism makes it likely to find a job in the short term. However, the solid skills generated by education raise the odds of finding better jobs in the future. We rule out some common explanations for the trade‐off between bribing and investment (e.g., bribes drain resources to invest or that less efficient firms bribe and do not invest). Our analysis suggests that firms with short‐term orientations are more likely to bribe and firms with long‐term orientation are more likely to invest. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of European integration and the business cycle on migration flows: a gravity analysis

This paper explores how European integration, economic fluctuations, and the interactions of these factors affect bilateral migration flows. It focuses on how migration flows developed in the wake of the establishment of the European Monetary Union, and whether migration flows became stronger, and more responsive to economic fluctuations, in the euro area. It estimates a gravity equation of bilateral gross migration flows on a global sample and on a sample restricted to the first 12 members of the euro area. It is found that unemployment is a strong and robust determinant of bilateral migration flows both globally and in the euro area. EU accession and the lifting of labour market restrictions on new member states had a large effect on gross migration flows. While mutual euro area membership is not associated with an overall rise in migration, it is associated with increased flows from countries where unemployment is high to those where it is lower. Migration flows among the euro-area 12 have been on an increasing trend since the late 1990s; after falls in 2009 they picked up again in 2010 and 2011. The evidence overall suggests that labour mobility plays an increasing role in the adjustment to asymmetric shocks in the EU and the euro area.     

On the estimation of the effect of labour participation on fertility

In this paper we consider the estimation of the causal effect of female labour market status (participation and employment) on fertility. We focus on the sensitivity of the estimated effect to (i) the assumptions about the exogeneity of labour market status; and (ii) the time interval between the measurement of fertility and employment status. Using Spanish quarterly data, we estimate a switching probit model that accounts for the joint determination of both variables. In order to obtain a behavioural effect of the former on the latter, we look at the timing of conception instead of the timing of birth, and present alternative sets of estimates depending on the accuracy with which conception is measured (yearly or quarterly). Our results show a positive although non-significant effect of participation and employment on the probability of having the first child, once the sample of women who conceive in the same quarter (or one quarter later) in which labour market status is measured and the endogeneity between both variables is accounted for. We find that annual data tend to over-estimate the negative effect of employment or participation on the probability of having a child, but the main biases appear when looking at the effect of participation. We are grateful to Adrian Kalwij, Daniel Miles and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on this work. All remaining errors are our own.     

Finite sample evidence of IV estimators under weak instruments

We present finite sample evidence on different IV estimators available for linear models under weak instruments; explore the application of the bootstrap as a bias reduction technique to attenuate their finite sample bias; and employ three empirical applications to illustrate and provide insights into the relative performance of the estimators in practice. Our evidence indicates that the random‐effects quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator outperforms alternative estimators in terms of median point estimates and coverage rates, followed by the bootstrap bias‐corrected version of LIML and LIML. However, our results also confirm the difficulty of obtaining reliable point estimates in models with weak identification and moderate‐size samples. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.