Exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks: a nonlinear smooth-transition approach

This paper models logistic and exponential smooth transition adjustments of real exchange rates for six major oil-exporting countries in response to different shocks affecting oil prices. The logistic form captures asymmetric and the exponential form symmetric adjustments in regards to positive and negative oil price shocks. We chose oil-exporting countries that do not peg their exchange rates. For most countries, we detect no statistically significant non-linearities for the adjustment process of real exchange rate returns, be they asymmetric or symmetric, in response to oil supply shocks, idiosyncratic oil-market-specific shocks, and speculative oil-market shocks. Exceptions are oil supply shocks in the UK and possibly Brazil, where exchange rates respond nonlinearly, though the effects are symmetric for both countries. On the other hand, global aggregate demand shocks, which are shocks not originating directly in the oil market, have nonlinear asymmetric effects on real exchange rate returns for Canada, Mexico, Norway and Russia, and nonlinear symmetric effects for Brazil and the UK.     

Extreme dependence for multivariate data

This article proposes a generalized notion of extreme multivariate dependence between two random vectors which relies on the extremality of the cross-covariance matrix between these two vectors. Using a partial ordering on the cross-covariance matrices, we also generalize the notion of positive upper dependence. We then propose a means to quantify the strength of the dependence between two given multivariate series and to increase this strength while preserving the marginal distributions. This allows for the design of stress-tests of the dependence between two sets of financial variables that can be useful in portfolio management or derivatives pricing.     

Industrial replacement

The problem of industrial replacement has been attacked on an essentially empirical basis by various writers, more especially and quite lately by E. B. Kurtz ¹ E. B. Kurtz, Life Expectancy of Physical Property, Ronald Press 1930; R. Winfrey and E. B. Kurtz, Life Characteristics of Physical Property, Bulletin 103 of the Iowa Engineering Experiment Station, Iowa State College, 1931. But its mathematical analysis, which is quite within the range of modern technique, has not in prior publications ² A special case has been discussed by H. Bateman, Messenger of Mathematics 1920 Vol. 49, p. 134. A more general discussion has been given by R. Frisch, Statsekonomisk Tidskrift, 1927, pp. 117-152. See also B. Meidell, Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift 1926 p. 172; J1. Washington Acad. Sci. 1928 p. 437. been advanced to the point at which it becomes applicable to Kurtz's data. The requisite analysis is, as a matter of fact, readily conducted by methods very similar to those applicable to certain problems of population growth and structure, which indeed closely resemble the problem of industrial replacement. ³ F. R. Sharpe and A. J. Lotka, A Problem in Age Distribution, Phil. Mag. April 1911 p. 435; A. J. Lotka, The Progeny of a Population Element, American Journal of Hygiene, 1928, vol. 8, p. 875; idem The Spread of Generations, Human Biology, 1929, vol. 1, p. 305.      

Über den Einfluss einer Änderung der Sterblichkeit auf die Prämienreserve

Abstract

In einer Note über die Theorie des Deekungskapitales habe ieh für das reduzierte Kapital der gemisehten Versicherung auf die Beträge At den Ausdruck gebraueht (1) wobei als Deckungsintensität bezeichnet wurde.     

Performance Reporting – The IASB's Proposed Formats of Financial Statements in the Exposure Draft of IAS 1

This paper is a response to the exposure draft of proposed amendments to IAS 1 Presentation of Financial Statements published by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) in March 2006. The objective is to bring to the standard setter's attention research that is relevant to the issues raised in the exposure draft. We review analytic, empirical and experimental research that addresses the presentation of income and the format of the income statement. Overall, there is some support for a single statement of (total) recognised income and expense. However, net income is on average more relevant than comprehensive income, which may favour a two-statement approach. While this result is in line with the IASB's option of the two formats, it does not support the IASB's preference for a single statement.     

The role of online platforms for media markets — Two-dimensional spatial competition in a two-sided market

We analyze the market for online and offline media in a model of two-dimensional spatial competition where media outlets sell content and advertising space. Consumer preferences are distributed along the style and type of news coverage where the distance costs may vary across dimensions. For integrated provision of online and offline platforms we show that entering the online market reduces average profits and may even constitute a prisoner's dilemma. Specialized provision may yield polarization in the style and type dimensions. This is in contrast to the maximum–minimum differentiation result previously established in the literature on multidimensional horizontal competition. We show that maximal differentiation in both dimensions occurs due to the discrete nature of the type dimension and asymmetric advertising markets.     

Human capital formation and public debt: growth and welfare effects of three different deficit policies

We analyze an endogenous growth model public educational spending. We show that the balanced budget policy and the policy with a slight deficit yield higher growth than a debt policy where public debt grows at the same rate as GDP, unless the government is a creditor. As concerns welfare, it can be demonstrated that a strong deficit policy yields lower welfare than a balanced budget and a slight deficit policy, unless initial debt ratios are low and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is high. Finally, there may exist an inverted U-shaped relation between welfare and deficit-financed educational spending.     

Divestitures,wealth effects and corporate governance

We analyse the market reaction to divestiture decisions and determine the impact of corporate governance practices. We find the market reaction is significant and can be determined using internal governance mechanisms. We evaluate the determinants of the decision to sell using a control sample of firms displaying characteristics often associated with divestitures indicating that these firms may face the same incentives to divest but elect not to restructure in this manner. Our results suggest that a combination of strong internal and external governance may force managers to act in a manner that is incompatible with their personal desires.