The Fish River SDI: New hope for industrial regeneration in the Eastern Cape?

This article reports on a case study of the Fish River Spatial Development Initiative which is spatially focused on the cities of Port Elizabeth and East London in the Eastern Cape Province. Major elements of the SDI, including the two industrial development zones which form part of it, are discussed The SDI is characterised as a nationally driven initiative which aims to create ‘sustainable ‘jobs by increasing the profile of Port Elizabeth and East London as international investment destinations, and thereby attracting large, new export‐oriented investment projects to the region. It is argued that even if the Fish River SDI succeeds in attracting such investment, it is only likely to lead to a once‐off increase in investment and employment rather than sustained industrial regeneration in the region. To ensure such industrial regeneration requires a regional industrial strategy which builds the capacity for learning and innovation in the region.     

The impact of the Saldanha Steel Project on the West Coast economy

This article reports the results of a study which evaluated whether the erection of the steel plant at Saldanha/Vredenburg supports the main objectives of the SDI programme and has resulted in sustainable growth for the region. It investigates the reasons for locating the steel plant here and factors which may affect the long‐term economic success of the plant. It also records the experiences of business people in the region on the impact of the investment on the area's economy to date and their perceptions of its likely impact in the future. From a national perspective, it asks whether the growth in foreign exchange earnings and the extension of a waning industry's lifespan is enough to justify public sector investment in the infrastructure at Saldanha Bay. On a local level, it probes and reports on the extent to which the erection of the steel mill spurred further growth via an enlarged set of activities, higher average productivity, higher savings, and improved actual and expected prospects for earning income.     

Deterring deviant consumer behaviour: when ‘it’s wrong,don’t do it’ doesn’t work

ABSTRACT

Tactics to deter deviant consumer behaviour have received limited attention in the literature despite deviance being an ongoing problem in the marketplace. Across two studies, the findings suggest there is a heterogeneous response to the rules placed on consumers’ behaviour, which manifests from an absence of consensus among consumers on what is right and wrong behaviour undermining the it’s wrong, don’t do it approach to deterrence. Further, risk perceptions of being caught and punished are low, if not absent, undermining the you will be caught and punished approach to deterrence. Alternate underlying mechanisms were tested and found to influence deviant consumer behaviour (perceived prevalence, perceived outcomes and moral identity), which could underpin alternate deterrence tactics, including social proofing, moral triggers and humanising the victim.     

Hierarchical adaptive sparse grids and quasi-Monte Carlo for option pricing under the rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model, introduced recently in Bayer et al. [Pricing under rough volatility. Quant. Finance, 2016, 16(6), 887–904], is a promising rough volatility model in quantitative finance. It is a parsimonious model depending on only three parameters, and yet remarkably fits empirical implied volatility surfaces. In the absence of analytical European option pricing methods for the model, and due to the non-Markovian nature of the fractional driver, the prevalent option is to use the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for pricing. Despite recent advances in the MC method in this context, pricing under the rBergomi model is still a time-consuming task. To overcome this issue, we have designed a novel, hierarchical approach, based on: (i) adaptive sparse grids quadrature (ASGQ), and (ii) quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC). Both techniques are coupled with a Brownian bridge construction and a Richardson extrapolation on the weak error. By uncovering the available regularity, our hierarchical methods demonstrate substantial computational gains with respect to the standard MC method. They reach a sufficiently small relative error tolerance in the price estimates across different parameter constellations, even for very small values of the Hurst parameter. Our work opens a new research direction in this field, i.e. to investigate the performance of methods other than Monte Carlo for pricing and calibrating under the rBergomi model.     

THE IMPACT OF LOW‐PRIORITY LAWS ON CRIMINAL ACTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM CALIFORNIA

We examine the impact of low‐priority initiatives on criminal activity. Low‐priority initiatives mandate that minor marijuana possession offenses be the lowest enforcement priority for police. Localities pass these laws because they believe if officers devote fewer resources toward minor marijuana crimes, more resources will be available to deter more serious crimes. Using data from California, we find that jurisdictions that adopted low‐priority laws experienced a reduction in arrests for misdemeanor marijuana offenses. However, we do not find evidence of a consistent effect of enacting a low‐priority initiative on the crime or clearance rate of other felonies. (JEL H1, H4, K4)     

The economic burden of psoriasis with high comorbidity among privately insured patients in the United States

Objective: To evaluate the impact of comorbidities on healthcare resource use (HRU), and direct and indirect work-loss-related costs in psoriasis patients.

Methods: Adults with psoriasis (≥2 diagnoses, the first designated as the index date) and non-psoriasis controls (no psoriasis diagnoses, randomly generated index date) were identified in a US healthcare claims database of privately-insured patients (data between January 2010 and March 2017 were used). Psoriasis patients were stratified based on the number of psoriasis-related comorbidities (0, 1–2, or ≥3) developed during the 12?months post-index. All outcomes were evaluated during the follow-up period, spanning the index date until the end of continuous health plan eligibility or data cut-off. HRU and costs per-patient-per-year (PPPY) were compared in psoriasis and non-psoriasis patients with ≥12?months of follow-up.

Results: A total of 9,078 psoriasis (mean age?=?44?years, 51% female) and 48,704 non-psoriasis (mean age?=?41?years, 50% female) patients were selected. During the 12?months post-index, among psoriasis vs non-psoriasis patients, 71.0% vs 83.0% developed no psoriasis-related comorbidities, 26.3% vs 16.0% developed 1–2, and 2.6% vs 1.0% developed ≥3 psoriasis-related comorbidities. Compared to non-psoriasis patients, psoriasis patients had more HRU including outpatient visits (incidence rate ratios [IRRs]?=?1.52, 2.03, and 2.66 for 0, 1–2, and ≥3 comorbidities, respectively [all p?p?p?p?Conclusions: HRU and cost burden of psoriasis are substantial, and increase with the development of psoriasis-related comorbidities.