The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal

The focus of our analysis is on how the UK government's proposed Brexit deal is likely to affect the economy. First, we assess how trade, migration, foreign direct investment, productivity and contributions to the EU budget might change by reviewing current proposals against historical evidence. Second, we use the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) to analyse the macroeconomic effects. Our assessment is that trade with the EU, especially in services, would be more costly after Brexit. This would be likely to have adverse effects on living standards in the UK. Our central estimate is that if the government's proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be around 3% lower per head than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. If the UK were to stay in a customs union with the EU, or if the Irish backstop position was to be invoked, there would still be a hit to GDP per capita of 2%. These estimates represent our considered view of the economic impact of the government's proposed Brexit deal, but they are themselves uncertain as there is no historical precedent of a country leaving a major trading block such as the EU.     

The Impact of User-Generated Content and Traditional Media on Customer Acquisition and Retention

Customer acquisition and retention are central components of customer relationship management (CRM) and the key drivers of a firm’s long-term profit. However, our understanding of the relative impact of user-generated content (UGC) and traditional media and their synergies on customer acquisition and retention is still underdeveloped. Thus, the purpose of this research is to address two key questions: What is the effect of UGC relative to that of traditional media on customer acquisition and retention? Is there any interaction effect between UGC and traditional media on both customer acquisition and retention? To understand the differential impacts of these media, we develop a conceptual framework and propose several hypotheses. We test our hypotheses using data from the automobile and mobile game industries. Our findings indicate that UGC is much more effective in acquiring customers, while traditional media is more important for customer retention. Moreover, the volume of UGC and traditional media have a synergistic effect on customer retention. This research therefore contributes to the acquisition-retention literature while also providing important insights to managers.     

Restaurant franchising and top management team

The primary purpose of this study was to investigate how top manager attributes account for the implementation of risk-averse strategy by applying a conceptual framework based on upper echelons theory. We selected franchising as a representative risk-averse strategy based on resource scarcity, agency, and risk-sharing theories. We chose the top management team (TMT) as a proxy for the upper echelon to examine the theoretical argument. The study period was from 2000 to 2013, and 29 restaurant companies were included in the research. Related data were derived from EXECUCOMP, COMPUSTAT, Annual 10-K, and publicly accessible resources (e.g., LinkedIn and Business Week). Feasible generalized least squares and random effect regression models were used to analyze the data. The results suggested that the formal education levels of top managers negatively affected franchising implementation, whereas the tenure of TMT members positively influenced restaurant franchising.     

Legal and Illegal Production and Trade Under Monopoly with Transaction Cost

Using illegal trade in narcotics as an example, where regular seizure of part of the merchandise by the law‐enforcing authorities imposes a transaction cost on the monopolist supplier, this paper demonstrates the result that a higher transaction cost might increase the volume supplied for trade. The result of the formal model also applies to the opposite situation, e.g. when trade is legal, as in seventeenth‐ and eighteenth‐century maritime trade, but pirates illegally seize part of the merchandise to impose a transaction cost on the traders. The more general implications of this analysis are also discussed.     

Customer e-complaining behaviours using social media

This paper develops a conceptual framework about customer complaining behaviours (CCB), using social media. Specifically, this research expands the current understanding of CCB by examining the differential impact of unfairness, firm response, retaliation, locus attribution, stability attribution, and personal identity on public complaining and private complaining using social media, and their subsequent impact on post-complaining satisfaction (PCS) and loyalty. Public complaining refers to customer complaints directed to a service provider, while private complaining refers to service failure complaints directed towards other customers. A structural equation model shows that high levels of unfairness, firm response, locus, and personal identity have a strong influence on public complaining, while desire for retaliation is a significant factor influencing private complaining. The findings contribute to practice by providing useful and pertinent information for developing suitable web care interventions to effectively deal with public complaining and private complaining through social media platforms.     

Economics, Psychology, and Social Dynamics of Consumer Bidding in Auctions

With increasing numbers of consumers in auction marketplaces, we highlight some recent approaches that bring additional economic, social, and psychological factors to bear on existing economic theory to better understand and explain consumers' behavior in auctions. We also highlight specific research streams that could contribute towards enriching existing economic models of bidding behavior in emerging market mechanisms. This paper is based on the special session at the 6th Triennial Invitational Choice Symposium, University of Colorado Boulder, June 2004 (co-chaired by the first two authors).     

Assessing Project Risk

Finding the appropriate discount rate, or cost of capital, for evaluating investment projects requires an accurate estimate of project risk. This can be challenging because project risk cannot be estimated directly using the CAPM, but must instead be inferred from a set of traded securities, typically the equity betas of comparable firms in the same industry. These equity betas are then unlevered to undo the effect of comparable companies' financial leverage and obtain estimates of “asset” betas, which are then used to estimate project risk. The authors show that asset betas estimated in this way are likely to overestimate project risk. The equity returns of companies are risky not only because of their existing projects but also because of their growth opportunities. Such growth opportunities often include embedded “real options,” such as the option to delay, expand, or abandon a project. Because such real options are similar to leveraged positions in the underlying project, a company's growth opportunities are typically riskier than its existing projects. Therefore, to properly assess project risk, analysts must also unlever the asset betas derived from comparable company stock returns for the leverage contributed by their growth options. The authors derive a simple method for unlevering asset betas for growth options leverage in order to properly assess project risk. They then show that standard methods for assessing project risk significantly overestimate project costs of capital—by as much as 2–3% in industries such as healthcare, pharmaceuticals, communications, medical equipment, and entertainment. Their method should also be applied to stock return volatility to derive project volatility, an important input for determining the value of a firm's growth opportunities and the appropriate time for investing in these opportunities.     

Online Market Entry: The Motivations for Imitation across Retailer Types

This study examines the motivations for imitation in retailers' online channel entry. Extant literature suggests that legitimacy and efficiency are the primary motivators for firms to imitate. We develop hypotheses that center on the belief that not all firm types would use the same motivator for deciding to imitate and enter the online market; legitimacy would be the driving force for some retailer types whereas efficiency would be the motivator for others. We test our hypotheses on unique data collected from multiple sources. Our findings confirm that the motivators for imitation vary across retailer types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How common are common return factors across the NYSE and Nasdaq?

We entertain the possibility of pervasive factors that are not common across two (or more) groups of securities. We propose and implement a general procedure to estimate the space spanned by common and group-specific pervasive factors. In our empirical analysis, we study the factor structure of excess returns on stocks traded on the NYSE and Nasdaq using our methodology. We find that there are only two common pervasive factors that govern the returns for both NYSE and Nasdaq. At the same time, the NYSE and Nasdaq each have one more group-specific factor that is not the same across the two exchanges. Our results point to the absence of complete similarity between the factors driving the returns on these exchanges.