投资者注意力、信息获利与管理层择机交易

基于认知心理学的新视角,以管理层择机性的股票交易为切入点,本文利用深交所披露的2007年5月8日到2009年12月31日管理层内部人交易数据,深入分析了投资者注意力、管理层择机交易以及公司价值之间的关系,研究发现:(1)管理层的短期择机交易倾向、择机程度与投资者注意力呈显著的负向关系,表明管理层确实会基于投资者的注意力状态进行股票交易择机;(2)管理层择机交易具有负面的价值效应,并且投资者注意力程度的提高能够有效抑制该种负面的价值损失;(3)基于投资者的注意力状态差异,管理层更会倾向性地通过选择卖方交易中的违规交易以获取充分的自利收益。     

Are there any cost and profit efficiency gains in financial conglomeration? Evidence from the accession countries

Diversified banks should benefit from an efficient allocation of resources, debt coinsurance and scope economies. At the same time, critics of diversification question these advantages pointing to agency problems such as managerial entrenchment and empire building that could also lead to diversification but for the ‘wrong’ reasons. This paper sheds further light on the issue of bank diversification by taking a direct look into how efficiently financial conglomerates operate and by measuring to what extent size and other bank- and market-specific factors matter in evaluating the relationship between diversification and efficiency. We focus on banks operating in the accession countries over the period 2001–2007 and estimate their cost and alternative profit efficiencies using a data envelopment analysis estimator. The results indicate that banks suffer from relatively high cost and profit inefficiencies and that there are noticeable differences in the efficiency levels across countries. Concerning banks’ degree of diversification, we find strong evidence to suggest that more diversified institutions are more likely to be cost- and profit-efficient and that size is a key factor in explaining best practice, particularly on the profit side.     

Looking for a safe haven after fancy thrills: a psychometric analysis of risk perception in alpine tourist destinations

Visitors’ risk perceptions have been found to influence the on‐site behaviour of tourists and their intention to return to a destination or to recommend it to others. The present study analyses the perception of tourism risks in the Tyrol, Austria. Building on the psychometric paradigm, participants (N = 207) assessed 15 vacation risks on nine risk characteristics that are derived from psychometric research and completed with characteristics relevant in a tourism context. Findings suggest that additionally to managing the most likely risks, alpine destinations should be prepared to cope with worst case scenarios such as ‘potable water poisoning’, ‘food poisoning’, ‘breaking of an embankment dam’, ‘rock fall on a village’, ‘cable car accident’ and ‘terrorist attack’. Considering these rather low‐probability risks is of decisive importance since such risks are especially prone to evoke public outrage if they – against all expectations – result in damaging events.     

Vulnerability,values and heterogeneity: one step further to understand risk perception and behaviour

The aim is to investigate differences in risk perception and behaviour among different population groups selected by gender, age, country of birth, disability and sexual orientation in the light of general values and vulnerability. The analyses use data from two Swedish national surveys from 2005 to 2008. People with foreign background perceive controlled and dread risks as a greater threat than do native-born people, but there is no difference in behaviour when general values and vulnerability have been controlled for. Compared to women, men rate known and dread risks as lower, but controlled risks as higher. Further, men’s behaviour is more risk-oriented and less risk-reducing, and homosexuals and bisexuals are more likely than heterosexuals to report risk behaviour. Compared to previous studies of the so-called White Male Effect carried out in the USA, gender does not play a similar role in Sweden. On the contrary, it seems as if gender is of less importance and that the strength of the association varies depending on type of risk or risk behaviour.     

Choosing project risk management techniques. A theoretical framework

The pressure for increasing quality while reducing time and costs places particular emphasis on managing risk in projects. To this end, several models and techniques have been developed in literature and applied in practice, so that there is a strong need for clarifying when and how each of them should be used. At the same time, knowledge about risk management is becoming a matter of paramount importance to effectively deal with the complexity of projects. However, communication and knowledge creation are not easy tasks, especially when dealing with uncertainty, because decision-making is often fragmented and a comprehensive perspective on the goals, opportunities and threats of a project is missing. With the purpose of providing guidelines for the selection of risk techniques taking into account the most relevant aspects characterising the managerial and operational scenario of a project, a theoretical framework to classify these techniques is proposed. Based on a literature review of the criteria to categorise risk techniques, three dimensions are defined: the phase of the risk management process, the phase of the project life cycle and the corporate maturity towards risk. The taxonomy is then applied to a wide selection of risk techniques according to their documented applications. This work helps to integrate the risk management and the knowledge management processes. Future research efforts will be directed towards refining the framework and testing it in multiple industries.     

Towards a pre-service technology teacher education resource for New Zealand

The Pre-service Technology Teacher Education Resource (PTTER) was developed as a cross-institutional resource to support the development of initial technology teacher education programmes in New Zealand. The PTTER was developed through collaboration involving representatives from each of the six New Zealand university teacher education providers, Massey University, University of Auckland, University of Canterbury, University of Otago, Victoria University and University of Waikato, working with the National Technology Professional Development Manager. The framework for PTTER is built on four key elements considered to be essential to the education of technology teachers. The four elements are: philosophy of technology, rationale for technology education, technology in the New Zealand curriculum, and teaching technology. The PTTER is a web-based resource aimed at assisting technology teacher educators in the development of their teacher education programmes. The framework is a statement of shared philosophy, purpose and intent and is located on the Techlink website (www.techlink.org.nz). PTTER contains a range of teaching resources and strategies located within an overall framework for initial technology teacher education programmes. This paper describes the rationale for the PTTER framework, the process through which it was developed, explanation of each of the framework’s elements, and concludes with discussion of the framework’s implementation and future development.     

Real Estate Prices During the Roaring Twenties and the Great Depression

Using new data on market‐based transactions we construct real estate price indexes for Manhattan between 1920 and 1939. During the 1920s prices reached their highest level in the third quarter of 1929 before falling by 67% at the end of 1932 and hovering around that value for most of the Great Depression. The value of high‐end properties strongly co‐moved with the stock market between 1929 and 1932. A typical property bought in 1920 would have retained only 56% of its initial value in nominal terms two decades later. An investment in the stock market index (including dividends) would have outperformed an investment in a typical property (including net rental income) by a factor of 5.2 over our time period.     

Analysing the determinants of bank efficiency: the case of Italian banks

Since PHILLIPS (1958) wrote his landmark article on the relationship between money wage rates and unemployment, much work has been conducted concerning ‘Phillips’ curves'. While some writers, such as LIPSEY (1960), SAMUELSON and SOLOW (1960) and HANSEN (1970), remained relatively close to Phillips' original model, other strayed from it. BRECHLING (1968), DICKS-MIREAUX and DOW (1959), ECKSTEIN (1968), ECKSTEIN and WILSON (1962), HAMERMESH (1970), KUH (1967), PERRY (1966), PHELPS (1968), and TAYLOR (1970) are a few researchers who felt Phillips' formulation did not adequately explain changes in money wage rates. Their approaches ranged from formulating entirely new models to merely adding other explanatory variables to Phillips' model.

The present study estimates a Phillips' curve for the United Kingdom within the framework of Phillips' basic hypothesis. He grouped all observations according to unemployment levels, averaged the wage changes for each group, and fitted a curve by trial and error to the compact body of data. The current approach fits a curve to all data points using a direct estimation procedure. Only two basic variables are used; money wage rates and unemployment.

REES and HAMILTON (1967) pointed out that the estimated relation between wage changes and unemployment is highly sensitive to the form of the variables and the regression employed. One can obtain widely scattered results by either changing the type of numerical analysis on existing data or by changing the defined variables. It would not be surprising if the results of the present analysis differ from previous works. Not only are some of the data sources different from those previously employed but the numerical analysis is entirely new to Phillips' curve theory. Spline theory is used to fit the Phillips' curve.     

气候公约外多边机制对气候公约的影响

《联合国气候变化框架公约》是国际应对气候变化合作的主渠道。为推进该领域的国际合作,主要经济体能源与气候论坛等一些公约外涉及气候变化主题的多边协商机制陆续出现,并对公约下的谈判和公约框架下的国际合作产生了影响。这些机制与公约的关系定性地基本可分为包含、竞争、补充、交叉、平行和取代六类。进一步采用指标-空间距离法对这些机制与公约的紧密程度进行定量分析,结果表明,主要经济体能源与气候论坛对公约进程的影响最大,目前公约外机制尚不存在取代公约的可能性。各种公约外机制对公约的影响主要是通过技术支持、政治意愿和具有法律约束力的规定三类模式实现。