Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate and evaluate quantile forecasts of the daily exchange rate returns of five currencies. The forecasting models that have been used in recent analyses of the predictability of daily realized volatility permit a comparison of the predictive power of different measures of intraday variation and intraday returns in forecasting exchange rate variability. The methods of computing quantile forecasts include making distributional assumptions for future daily returns as well as using the empirical distribution of predicted standardized returns with both rolling and recursive samples. Our main findings are that the Heterogenous Autoregressive model provides more accurate volatility and quantile forecasts for currencies which experience shifts in volatility, such as the Canadian dollar, and that the use of the empirical distribution to calculate quantiles can improve forecasts when there are shifts.     

The end of growth in residential tourism destinations: steady state or sustainable development? The case of Calpe

This article discusses how the slowdown in the real estate market during the most recent economic and financial crisis has affected residential tourism destinations on the Spanish coast. The afore-mentioned crisis, which gave rise to a standstill in residential activity, coincided with the turbulences experienced in the competing destinations of Northern Africa, which brought about a record number of international tourist arrivals to Spain. The resulting situation enables us to explore the future scenario of all the Spanish destinations that, due to the depletion of available land, are reaching their maximum levels of urban growth. Examining the case of Calpe, a destination which is representative of the Spanish Mediterranean, the study analyses whether the foreseeable dynamics for the future are conceptualized in the favourable terms that characterize “sustainable development” or, on the contrary, exhibit negative implications which the classic economists refer to as the “steady state”.     

The impact of health sector on R&D,economic growth and wages

We extend the existing R&D growth literature by focusing on the short-, medium-, long-run effects of the health sector on R&D intensity, economic growth and wages, and by considering 21 OECD countries between 1991 and 2008. We show that: (i) there is a unique and stable steady state; (ii) an increase in health-labour share in skilled population has no effect on growth, but affects negatively (positively) the R&D intensity (the skill premium); (iii) Anglo–Saxons countries have the lowest health-labour share in skilled-labour population, and Nordic countries have the lowest skill premium and the highest consumption/production of healthcare per capita.     

The Recognition of Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets in Business Combinations – The Portuguese Case

In this study, we investigate the magnitude of goodwill recognised in business combinations during the years 2005 to 2009 by the Portuguese companies listed on Euronext Lisbon, and characterise the amount of the other intangible assets recognised separately from goodwill. We also analyse the level of compliance of those companies with the main disclosure requirements of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 3 – Business Combinations. Our study, which involves the analysis of 197 business combinations, reveals that the amounts of goodwill continue to be highly material, while conversely, the value of identifiable intangible assets in those acquisitions is very low. The results suggest that Portuguese companies do not undertake sufficient efforts to individually identify and disclose intangibles acquired in business combinations. This fact is reinforced by the reduced level of compliance with the disclosures required by IFRS 3, particularly the factors that contribute to the recognition of goodwill. Our findings provide feedback to standard setters in an effort to improve practice in the application of IFRS 3. Moreover, they reinforce their recent concerns regarding the post‐implementation review of business combinations, as well as the ongoing project of the IASB, whose objective is to improve disclosures in existing standards.     

Profit sharing and strike activity in Cournot oligopoly

Within an incomplete-information framework, we develop a model of wage determination in a unionized Cournot oligopoly. The assumption of incomplete information allows the possibility of strikes or lockouts, which waste industry potential resources, at equilibrium. Facing such deadweight loss, the government or the social planner may decide to adopt a policy, such as a profit-sharing scheme. Under two different bargaining structures (firm level vs. industry level), we investigate the effects of adopting profit sharing on the wage outcome and the strike activity. If the base-wage bargaining takes place at the industry level, then the introduction of a profit-sharing scheme increases the strike activity. But if the base-wage bargaining takes place at the firm level and the number of firms in the industry is greater than two, then the introduction of a profit-sharing scheme reduces the strike activity.     

In Good Company: When Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises Acquire Multiplex Knowledge from Key Commercial Partners

This study explores the specific conditions under which key strategic alliances of small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) with commercial partners can become multiplex in knowledge exchange. Using survey data from a sample of 150 Spanish SMEs in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, we find that trust creates an appropriate context for the concurrent acquisition of technological, market, and managerial knowledge. When the SME and its key commercial partner exhibit significant strategic, technological, and market differences, however, the SME's ability to acquire different types of knowledge diminishes considerably, reducing the positive impact of trust on knowledge multiplexity.     

Competition in the Portuguese economy: insights from a profit elasticity approach

The article uses the elasticity of profits to marginal costs, as in Boone (Econ J 111:1245–1261, 2008b), to measure the degree of competition in the Portuguese economy in a period characterised by the reallocation of resources towards the non-tradable sector and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances. Using firm-level data for the period 2000–2009, we find that there is lower competition intensity in the non-tradable sector. The least competitive markets within this sector lay in professional services, network industries and segments of retail trade. We also find that reductions in competition intensity are relatively widespread in the economy, but in terms of sales, gross value added and employment they are more substantial in the non-tradable sector. Results suggest that some network industries and other services exhibit low and a declining competition intensity in the period under analysis. In addition, the article discusses the coherence of the profit elasticity with classic indicators of market power, such as the Herfindahl–Hirschman index and the price-cost margin, and find that in more than half of the markets there is an agreement in the dynamics of competition intensity.     

Are false own-account workers less job satisfied than true ones?

This article compares job satisfaction of true and false own-account workers. The latter group refers to own-account workers who are employed with the same tasks by the same employer for whom they previously worked as employees. To create a valid comparable group, the former workers are defined as paid employees who independently started a new business as own-account workers. Using data drawn from the European Community Household Panel for the EU-15 and controlling for possible self-selection issues, we observe that false own-account workers, compared with true ones, have less job satisfaction in terms of type of work, number of working hours, working times, and working conditions and environment. Our results are consistent with existing policies aimed to combat false self-employment developed by many OECD countries.     

Current and projected patient and insurer costs for the care of patients with non-small cell lung cancer in the United States through 2040

Aims: The objective of this study was to quantify the current and to project future patient and insurer costs for the care of patients with non-small cell lung cancer in the US.

Materials and methods: An analysis of administrative claims data among patients diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer from 2007–2015 was conducted. Future costs were projected through 2040 based on these data using autoregressive models.

Results: Analysis of claims data found the average total cost of care during first- and second-line therapy was $1,161.70 and $561.80 for patients, and $45,175.70 and $26,201.40 for insurers, respectively. By 2040, the average total patient out-of-pocket costs are projected to reach $3,047.67 for first-line and $2,211.33 for second-line therapy, and insurance will pay an average of $131,262.39 for first-line and $75,062.23 for second-line therapy.

Limitations: Claims data are not collected for research purposes; therefore, there may be errors in entry and coding. Additionally, claims data do not contain important clinical factors, such as stage of disease at diagnosis, tumor histology, or data on disease progression, which may have important implications on the cost of care.

Conclusions: The trajectory of the cost of lung cancer care is growing. This study estimates that the cost of care may double by 2040, with the greatest proportion of increase in patient out-of-pocket costs. Despite the average cost projections, these results suggest that a small sub-set of patients with very high costs could be at even greater risk in the future.     

Market integration and strike activity

We consider a two-country model of wage determination with private information in unionized, imperfectly competitive, industries. We investigate the effects of opening up markets to trade as well as of further market integration on the negotiated wage and the maximum delay in reaching an agreement. From an initial situation of two-way intra-industry trade, an increase in product market integration decreases the maximum delay in reaching an agreement. However, opening up markets to trade has an ambiguous effect on both the wage outcome and the maximum real delay time.