Explaining Downstream Integration

We examine the downstream integration decision by businesses, deriving hypotheses from the transaction cost literature which are empirically tested for a sample of 1392 businesses operating in a wide spectrum of industries. Our results provide corroboration for each dimension of the transaction cost framework in explaining why firms might integrate their downstream business activities. Given the large cross-sectional sample, our results provide some evidence of the general validity of the transaction cost framework within the context of downstream integration.     

Robust ergodic chaos in discounted dynamic optimization models

Summary We identify a family of discounted dynamic optimization problems in which the immediate return function depends on current consumption, capital input and a taste parameter. The usual monotonicity and concavity assumptions on the return functions and the aggregative production function are verified. It is shown that the optimal transition functions are represented by the quadratic family, well-studied in the literature on chaotic dynamical systems. Hence, Jakobson's theorem can be used to throw light on the issues of robustness of ergodic chaos and sensitive dependence on initial conditions.     

The Role of Current Account Balance in Forecasting the US Equity Premium: Evidence From a Quantile Predictive Regression Approach

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the current account balance can help in forecasting the quarterly S&P500-based equity premium out-of-sample. We consider an out-of-sample period of 1970:Q3 to 2014:Q4, with a corresponding in-sample period of 1947:Q2 to 1970:Q2. We employ a quantile predictive regression model. The quantile-based approach is more informative relative to any linear model, as it investigates the ability of the current account to forecast the entire conditional distribution of the equity premium, rather than being restricted to just the conditional-mean. In addition, we employ a recursive estimation of both the conditional-mean and quantile predictive regression models over the out-of-sample period which allows for time-varying parameters in the forecast evaluation part of the sample for both of these models. Our results indicate that unlike as suggested by the linear (mean-based) predictive regression model, the quantile regression model shows that the (changes in the) real current account balance contains significant out-of-sample information when the stock market is performing poorly (below the quantile value of 0.3), but not when the market is in normal to bullish modes (quantile value above 0.3). This result seems to be intuitive in the sense that, when the markets are performing average to well, that is performing around the median and above of the conditional distribution of the equity premium, the excess return is inherently a random-walk and hence, no information, from a predictor (changes in the real current account balance) is able to predict the equity premium.     

On the determinants of non-market strategy: The separations mechanism and cost shifting in the telecommunications industry

This study examines the relationship between performance levels and the levels of cross-subsidy attained by local exchange carriers in the United States telecommunications industry. These cross-subsidies have been obtained by firms via their engagement in a separations mechanism, based on a cost allocation process, which telecommunications sector regulatory authorities use. Non-market strategies have assumed primacy in the activities of several sectors world-wide. Thus, understanding non-market strategic choices is important in the analysis of firms’ behavior and performance. Active engagement in the separations process is an important non-market strategy in the telecommunications industry, as a firm relatively successful in this activity can gain large cross-subsidies. The analysis establishes that less profitable firms obtain greater cross-subsidies. Once the profitability variable is decomposed into its two main components, which are productivity and price recovery, the impact of the profitability variable reduces. Firms which are relatively unproductive, as well as those unable to recover higher output prices, obtain relatively greater cross-subsidies. These results are inconsistent with the postulates of the strategic cost-allocation and behavior literatures but are consistent with x-inefficiency and rent-seeking perspectives of firms’ strategic actions.     

Network effects and the adoption of new technology: evidence from the U.S. telecommunications industry

This paper examines variations in the adoption of new technology by firms operating in a network-based industry: telecommunications. These variations are explained as a function of three network effects: the first is the conversion effect, driven by operations-related increasing returns to scale; the second is the consumption effect, driven by demand-side increasing returns to scale; the third is an imitative effect. We expect the conversion effect to be felt more strongly during earlier phases of a technology's evolution, while a strong consumption effect is felt throughout. The imitative effect is also expected to be felt throughout. These hypotheses are examined with respect to electronic switching adoption in the local operating sector of the U.S. telecommunications industry. An analysis of the variations in adoption levels of the 40 largest firms over a period lasting from 1973 to 1987 supports our expectations, except for the imitative effect. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does it pay to venture abroad? Exporting behavior and the performance of firms in Indian industry

Using contemporary data for a firm-level sample of over 600 Indian firms, this paper investigates the impact that an export-orientation has on the profitability of the firms studied. The results, based on a two-stage least squares method, establish a positive and significant relationship between firms' levels of exports and profitability. For firms from developing and transition economies like India it does pay to venture abroad, and the ability to sell goods overseas has a significant impact on firms' economic performance. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.