Diffidence Theorem, State-Dependent Preferences, and DARA

C. Gollier (The Economics of Risk and Time. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2001) has developed a standard technique based on the diffidence theorem. This theorem provides a very simple instrument to solve relatively sophisticated problems when preferences are state-independent. The object of this article is to show that the theorem is also very useful to derive significant results with state-dependent preferences. Using the reference set notion and an extension of the diffidence theorem, we establish formally necessary and sufficient conditions on the reference set, in order to obtain prudence and decreasing absolute risk aversion. Examples of DARA utility functions compatible with non-linear reference sets are presented in the Appendix.     

The Valuation of Insurance under Uncertainty: Does Information about Probability Matter?

In a laboratory experiment we test the hypothesis that consumers' valuation of insurance is sensitive to the amount of information available on the probability of a potential loss. In order to test this hypothesis we simulate a market in which we elicit individuals' willingness to pay to insure against a loss characterised either by known or else vague probabilities. We use two distinct treatments by providing subjects with different information over the vague probabilities of loss. In general we find that uncertainty about probabilities has a weak impact on consumers' valuation of insurance. However, additional information about probabilities tends to marginally increase the price individuals are willing to pay to insure themselves. Implications for the insurance market are derived.     

A Value at Risk Approach to Background Risk

This paper studies the effects of an uninsurable background risk (BR) on the demand for insurance (proportional and with deductible). We study both the case of BR uncorrelated with the insurable one and the perfectly correlated one, in a Gaussian world. In order to perform our study, we exploit the new risk measure known as Value at Risk (VaR) and consider insurance contracts which are Mean-VaR efficient. We obtain results which depend on the parameters (moments) of both risks and on the magnitude of loadings charged by the insurance company, instead of depending on the risk attitudes of the insured, such as risk aversion and prudence.We demonstrate that, if loadings are not too high, the demand for insurance increases with positively correlated BR; it decreases with BR negatively correlated if the latter is less risky than the insurable one (in this case it can even go to zero, if loadings are too high); it goes to zero with BR which is negatively correlated and more risky than the insurable one.     

Social Security with Heterogeneous Populations Subject to Demographic Shocks

In a previous paper, we showed how a pay-as-you-go social security scheme, based on voluntary contributions, can be an appropriate institution to reach an optimal sharing of risks among generations in the presence of demographic uncertainties. We study here the functioning of such schemes when there are different population strata, with different demographic shocks and wages. We show that while a collective voluntary pay-as-you-go scheme can provide efficient intergenerational risk sharing, it is likely to be destabilized by pensions funds specialized by agents' types. This is true both when there is a complete set of contingent markets, where the risk pooling capabilities of a collective fund are potentially of less interest, and when markets are incomplete. In this last circumstance, a collective fund may help the living agents to share their intragenerational risks. However, we show that the resulting allocation does not Pareto dominate the outcome of individual funds by agent types, and that there are incentives for agents to separate from any collective organization.     

可修复单元备件储备量计算方法研究

本文讨论了考虑原件修复时,可修复单元备件储备量的计算方法,并给出了该方法在印制电路板备件储备量计算中的应用实例。     

Enhancing Bank Transparency: A Re-assessment

Transparency regulation aims at reducing financial fragility by strengthening market discipline. There are, however, two elementary properties of banking that may render such regulation inefficient at best and detrimental at worst. First, an extensive financial safety net may eliminate the disciplinary effect of transparency regulation. Second, achieving transparency is costly for banks, as it dilutes their charter values, and hence also reduces their private costs of risk-taking. We consider both the direct costs of complying with disclosure requirements and the indirect transparency costs stemming from imperfect property rights governing information and particularly infer the conditions under which transparency regulation cannot reduce financial fragility.     

Reconciling Gray and Hotelling

A bstract .   Early exhaustible resource economics provides an important foundation for recent suggestions that firm-level economic modeling plays a larger role in the analysis of resource scarcity. The lack of empirical support for Hotelling's r -percent rule, introduced in 1931, and recent suggestions that industry behavior may not be reducible to firm behaviors are the primary motivating factors for examining the relative value of Gray's contribution to the field of exhaustible resource economics relative to Hotelling's contribution. Specifically, Gray's papers that appeared in the 1910s provide insight into the heterogeneity of deposits and their spatial dimensions, and offer the possibility that firms will be subject to fixed costs carried over between periods. In this paper, the arguments presented by Gray are formalized in a dynamic model, which allows the differences between Gray's and Hotelling's assumptions to be more fully explored. The results of the paper illustrate that by considering spatially identifiable heterogeneous deposits, fixed costs, and entry costs, in general Hotelling's r -percent rule is not a sufficient condition for firm-level decision making and that firms' extraction behavior cannot be linearly aggregated to describe industry behavior.     

Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?

Recent arguments, motivated partly by the new fiscal theory of price level, suggest that fiscal deficits undermine price stability in transition economies. This paper addresses these claims by examining vector-autoregressive models of inflation for three transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania and Russia). The results indicate that fiscal deficits have increased inflation in Bulgaria and Romania but not in the case of Russia. In Bulgaria and Romania, money aggregates and exchange rate have also been more influential to inflation than fiscal deficits. The analysis based on this method therefore suggests that while fiscal deficits have some influence on inflation, monetary factors mostly determine inflation in these three countries.     

高速数字信号处理采集数据的存贮

本文针对高速数字信号处理技术中存在的数据接口问题,分析了几种数据存贮结构,在此基础上给出了一种性能/价格比较优的总线隔离的数据存贮器直接存贮数据接口结构。