Categorizing risks in seven large projects—Which risks do the projects focus on?

In a hierarchy of project objectives, strategic objectives will often be principally different from the operational ones. Operational objectives concern the project outputs/results, and strategic objectives concern the project goal and purpose. In this study, risks are categorized as risks to operational, long‐term, or short‐term strategic objectives, and, by studying a dataset of some 1,450 risk elements that make up the risk registers of seven large projects, we examine how operational and strategic risks are distributed in the projects. The study strongly indicates that risks to a project's strategic objectives rarely occur in the project's risk registers, though project success and failure stories indicate their importance.     

Likelihood-based inference for cointegration with nonlinear error-correction

We consider a class of nonlinear vector error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relationships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models.     

A theory on the role of wholesalers in international trade based on economies of scope

This paper offers a theoretical foundation for the existence of wholesalers and other intermediaries in international trade and analyzes their role in an economy with heterogeneous manufacturing firms and fixed costs of exporting. Wholesalers are assumed to possess a technology such that they can buy manufacturing goods domestically and sell in foreign markets and they can, unlike manufacturers, export more than one good. A wholesaler therefore faces an additional fixed cost, which increases in the number of goods it handles. The presence of wholesale firms leads to productivity sorting. The most productive firms export on their own by paying a fixed cost, but a range of firms with intermediate productivity levels export through international wholesalers. A higher fixed cost of exporting to a destination means that wholesalers handle: (i) a higher share of total export volumes to this destination and (ii) a higher share of the exported product scope (i.e., the number of exported products) to this destination. A higher fixed cost of exporting gives wholesalers a larger role, since these can spread the fixed cost across more than one good. The wholesale technology therefore exhibits economies of scope. An empirical analysis using Swedish firm‐level data supports the main assumption and predictions of the model.     

Mapping research on R&D,innovation and productivity: a study of an academic endeavour

ABSTRACT

This paper accounts for the development of the academic endeavour to determine the firm-level relationship between investments in R&D and productivity. The impact of 28 highly cited publications within this line of study is investigated using a combination of bibliometric techniques and citation function analysis. We show how the attention paid to this line of research broadens and deepens in parallel to the diffusion of innovation as a research theme during 2000s. Our findings also suggest that the attraction of scholarly attention is driven by combination of broadening interest in the central research question under study and boundary-pushing methodological contributions made in the key contributions.     

R&D,public innovation policy,and productivity: The case of danish manufacturing

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between private R&D, public innovation support transferred to the private sector, and productivity in Danish manufacturing. Two main conclusions are established. First, public innovation support has a positive and significant effect on private R&D expenditures with an estimated elasticity of 0.062. Second, the indirect effect on productivity from public innovation support is reflected in a positive point estimate which is found to be robust to different specifications of R&D capital.     

Something old and something new: comparing views about nanotechnology and nuclear energy

This paper provides a review and evaluation of different food‐risk prioritization and management frameworks that have been developed by governmental food‐safety authorities, regulatory agencies and non‐governmental institutions worldwide. It emphasizes the need for a new science‐ and risk‐based system approach to microbial risk prioritization. We find that most studies and projects argue for a systematic and multi‐disciplinary approach to risk prioritization but nevertheless lack it. Human and public health issues have constituted the core focus of food‐risk analysis in food‐borne risk prioritization studies, where the majority of studies use the concept of disease burden. Even though it is widely recognized that economic and market‐level impacts of microbial hazards and preventive interventions to reduce food‐borne risks are crucial to the performance of industries and markets, they are almost never accounted for in risk prioritization frameworks.     

Commutation functions under Gompertz–Makeham mortality

It is known, but perhaps not well-known, that when the mortality is assumed to be of Gompertz–Makeham-type, the expected remaining life-length and the commutation functions used for calculating the expected values of various types of life insurances can be expressed with an incomplete gamma function with a negative shape parameter. This is not of much use if ones software cannot calculate these values. The aim of this note is to show that one can express the commutation functions using only the exponential function, the (ordinary) gamma function and the gamma distribution function, which are all implemented in common statistical and spreadsheet software. This eliminates the need to evaluate the commutation functions and expected remaining life-length with numerical integration.     

Exchange rate volatility and export performance: a cointegrated VAR approach

During the last decades Norwegian exporters have–despite various forms of exchange rate targeting–faced a rather volatile exchange rate which may have influenced their behaviour. Recently, the shift to inflation targeting and a freely floating exchange rate has brought about an even more volatile exchange rate. We examine the causal link between export performance and exchange rate volatility across different monetary policy regimes within the cointegrated Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework using the implied conditional variance from a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model as a measure of volatility. Although treating the volatility measure as either a stationary or a nonstationary variable in the VAR, we are not able to find any evidence suggesting that export performance has been significantly affected by exchange rate uncertainty. We find, however, that volatility changes proxied by blip dummies related to the monetary policy change from a fixed to a managed floating exchange rate and the Asian financial crises during the 1990s enter significantly in a dynamic model for export growth–in which the level of relative prices and world market demand together with the level of exports constitute a significant cointegration relationship. A forecasting exercise on the dynamic model rejects the hypothesis that increased exchange rate volatility in the wake of inflation targeting in the monetary policy has had a significant impact on export performance.     

Real and perceived losses from unemployment: a cross-country study

This article compares the Unemployment Rate (UR) as a measure of inefficiency with several other potential measures across 18 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Results show that the UR is not a very good measure of relative inefficiency between countries, it overestimates the number of individuals who would get jobs if the market is clear, the Dead Weight Losses (DWLs) of UR are remarkably low even in high unemployment countries and the aggregate perceived monetary losses by the unemployed as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are also uniformly low, although inframarginal individuals in some countries may perceive their losses to be high.