Evolutionary micro-dynamics and changes in the economic structure

The paper aims to account for the empirical stylized facts related to changes in sectoral structures that have led to the growth of services in most advanced countries over recent decades. A growth model with evolutionary micro–founded structural change is developed, which formalizes the role of technical change and changes in intermediate demand as they affect the evolution of the sectoral composition of the economy and macro-economic growth. The simulated results are based on the use of the actual data, including Input–Output coefficients in the case of Germany. Three scenarios are identified, which account for the effects of a set of key parameters on changes in the structure of the economy.     

Measuring the financial sustainability and its influential factors in local governments

The economic crisis has led international organizations and previous research to point out the need for measuring and controlling financial sustainability in governments. Based on the main international pronouncements, this article seeks to contribute to the measurement and management of the financial sustainability, analysing the income statement evolution and identifying its influential factors. An empirical study of Spanish municipalities is then undertaken to test the relationship between the measure of the financial sustainability and three dimensions proposed by International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) (revenues, debt and services). Our findings indicate that the income statement is a good approach for the financial sustainability assessment, because it reveals relevant information about its three dimensions, allowing to identify the specific factors which could provoke sustainability problems on public services.     

ENTREPRENEURSHIP OVER THE LIFE CYCLE: WHERE ARE THE YOUNG ENTREPRENEURS?

Most individuals do not start a business and, if they do, they start well into their 30s. To explain these stylized facts, I estimate a dynamic Roy model with experience accumulation, risk aversion, and imperfect information about ability using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Information frictions and income risk reduce entrepreneurship by up to 40% and 35%, respectively. Entry costs and information frictions explain most of the delayed entry. Results from counterfactual policies targeting delayed entry suggest that entrepreneurship education can yield higher returns than subsidies. Fostering young entrepreneurship yields higher returns than fostering old entrepreneurship.     

The testable implications of competitive equilibrium in economies with externalities

Suppose that one has a data set consisting of prices and individual endowments for some economy. Brown and Matzkin (Econometrica 64:1249–1262, 1996) have shown that there are conditions that the data have to satisfy, if the observed prices are determined by the competitive equilibrium process, given the observed endowments, when there are no external effects in the economy’s interactions. The results here show that the same conclusion does not apply, in general, if the economy exhibits externalities. On the other hand: (i) some restrictions exist if there exist at least two commodities on which the individuals’ preferences are weakly separable; (ii) although extremely mild, restrictions exist too if one observed individual consumption for the economy that causes the external effects; and (iii) importantly, even if the previous two cases do not apply, restrictions exist when the externalities that exist are in the form of a public good.     

Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply

Summary. We establish conditions under which indeterminacy can occur in a small open economy business cycle model with endogenous labor supply. Indeterminacy requires small externalities in technologies with social constant returns to scale, independently of the intertemporal elasticities in both consumption and labor. Received: December 12, 2001; revised version: May 17, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"The paper has benefited from discussions with Jess Benhabib and Mark Weder, as well as from the comments of an anonymous referee. Correspondence to: Q. Meng     

Mandated disclosures under IAS 36 Impairment of Assets and IAS 38 Intangible Assets: value relevance and impact on analysts’ forecasts

Drawing on a large sample of European firms, we examine whether variant compliance levels with mandated disclosures under IAS 36 Impairment of Assets and IAS 38 Intangible Assets are value relevant and affect analysts’ forecasts. Our results indicate a mean (median) compliance level of about 84% (86%) but high variation among firms and disclosure levels regarding IAS 36 being much lower than those regarding IAS 38. In depth, analysis reveals that non-compliance relates mostly to proprietary information and information that reveals managers’ judgment and expectations. Furthermore, we find a positive (negative) relationship between average disclosure levels and market values (analysts’ forecast dispersion). Results, however, hold more specifically for disclosures related to IAS 36, and these also improve analysts’ forecast accuracy. Our findings add knowledge regarding the economic consequences of mandatory disclosures, have an appeal to regulators and financial statement preparers and reflect on the IASB’s concerns to increase the guidance and principles on presentation and disclosure.     

Does survey experience affect respondents’ reported level of satisfaction?

Web surveys are becoming an indispensable tool for quantitative researchers, and online survey panels have proliferated in recent years. However, little research has addressed the challenges of using online panels, namely the potential effects of respondents’ survey experience, also known as panel conditioning. This paper is based on a study of Danish parents’ day care arrangements and their associated level of satisfaction. A survey was conducted through an online panel and included measurements of past survey participation. Through tests of independence on key variables and the application of various ordered logit models, we find no significant evidence that survey experience affects respondents’ reported level of satisfaction. These results persist when testing the potential interaction between survey experience and experiences with day care services. Furthermore, we relate our results to the existing literature and discuss the possibility of different effects cancelling each other out. This leads us to recommendations on the use of online panels and suggestions for elaboration in future research.     

On the effectiveness of capital controls during the Great Recession: The Brazilian experience (2007–2013)

In this study, we analyze the impact in Brazil of a tax on external capital flows called “Imposto Sobre Operações Finaceiras” (IOF), by following data on a monthly basis from 2007 to 2013. Our goal is to determine whether a change in tax legislation can produce significant effects on the pattern of financial inflows from abroad. Using univariate structural models, our results show that changes in the IOF produced structural breaks on foreign portfolio investments.     

Uncertainty avoidance and the rate of business ownership across 21 OECD countries, 1976–2004

Persistent differences in the level of business ownership across countries have attracted the attention of scientific as well as political debate. Cultural as well as economic influences are assumed to play a role. This paper deals with the influence of cultural attitudes towards uncertainty on the rate of business ownership across 21 OECD countries. First, the concepts of uncertainty and risk are elaborated, as well as their relevance for entrepreneurship. An occupational choice model is introduced to underpin our reasoning at the macro-level. Second, regression analysis using pooled macro data for 1976, 1990 and 2004 and controlling for several economic variables, yields evidence that uncertainty avoidance is positively correlated with the prevalence of business ownership. According to our model, a restrictive climate of large organizations in high uncertainty avoidance countries pushes individuals striving for autonomy towards self-employment. Regressions for these 3 years separately show that in 2004, this positive correlation is no longer found, indicating that a compensating pull of entrepreneurship in countries with low uncertainty avoidance may have gained momentum in recent years. Third, an interaction term between uncertainty avoidance and GDP per capita in the pooled panel regressions shows that the historical negative relationship between GDP per capita and the level of business ownership is substantially weaker for countries with lower uncertainty avoidance. This suggests that rising opportunity costs of self-employment play a less important role in this cultural environment, or are being compensated by increasing entrepreneurial opportunities.