Some applications of stochastic analysis in financial economics: An outline

The basic features of a recent approach to the theory of continuous trading, are presented.

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Sommario Vengono presentate le linee base di un recente approccio alle opzioni in tempo continuo basato su tecniche di analisi stocastica.

     

Financial market volatility

The volatility of financial markets has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. However, while particular episodes, such as the bond market turbulence in 1994 and considerable exchange rate movements in 1995, may give the impression that markets have become more volatile, there appears to have been no systematic increase in volatility over the last 20 years in major industrialised countries.     

A survey of cross-sectional and time-series literature on factors affecting child welfare

This paper reviews the literature on the socio-economic determinants of child welfare. Cross-sectional evidence is first analysed. The relevant literature is subdivided into four groups of studies depending on the main factors influencing child welfare: demographic; related to family circumstances; related to health care and sanitation; and economic. The very few time-series studies on this subject are then examined. While the existing literature does not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn on the predominance or relative importance of these four sets of factors, this paper identifies three related research areas for which particularly severe gaps seem to emerge and for which additional investigation appears necessary. These are: over-time studies, studies for low-income, high-mortality countries of Africa, for middle-income countries and for high-income, high-mortality countries, and studies measuring impact on the basis of indicators of welfare other than infant mortality rates.     

Linking product modularity and innovativeness to supply chain management in the Italian furniture industry

Much of the literature on modularity assumes that firms with modular products adopt modular organization. In the realm of supply chain management, no consensus has been reached on the effects of product modularity on supply chains (SC). This paper investigates whether SC choices depend on product modularity and innovativeness, and how SC choices can be aligned to these product features to maximize performance. A medium scale survey has been performed in the Italian furniture industry. By means of factor and cluster analyses, the SC of firms that introduced products with different levels of modularity and innovativeness have been compared. The results show that both product features must be considered when designing the SC.     

Entrepreneurial risk,investment, and innovation

I estimate the effect of uncertainty on risky innovation using a panel of 11,417 manufacturing firms. I find that an increase in uncertainty has a large negative effect on the risky innovation of entrepreneurial firms, while it does not have any significant impact on other firms. This negative effect is stronger for the less diversified entrepreneurial firms in the sample. The estimation results are consistent with the innovation dynamics generated in a model in which entrepreneurs are risk averse and cannot diversify the risk of their business.     

Renato Giannetti and Michelangelo Vasta. L'impresa italiana nel Novecento. Bologna, Italy: Societa Editrice il Mulino, 2003. 486 pp. ISBN 88-15-09496-2, {euro}30.00.

Italian business history is not well known abroad. This is quiteobvious. Even though Italy has been industrialized since the1920s, it is a small country, with little international influence.Its historical patterns of evolution privileged the internalmarket, and although its domestic corporations have traditionallynot been very active abroad, foreign firms have also manifestedopenly their reluctance to invest in a promising but too turbulentenvironment. As a result, Italian business history has fromthe beginning been a domestic story, scarcely appealing forforeign scholars. The Italian historiographic climate was partiallyresponsible for this situation. Business history as a disciplinehas only recently been "legitimized" in Italy (still there areno chairs in the field). For a long time, the     

Prudence or Profligacy: Deficits, Debt, and Fiscal Consolidation

Over the last quarter century, public finances have been underpressure in most OECD countries as deficits and debts rose underthe pressure of relatively slow growth and high interest rates.This, in turn, has affected the welfare state, since effortsat containing deficits have often been concentrated on publicexpenditure. Much of the literature argues that this is desirable,since curbing deficits via tax increases seldom succeeds. Amedium-term survey of OECD country experience suggests a lessclear-cut conclusion. In a number of countries which were ableto curb debt/GDP ratios, the bulk of the adjustment did, indeed,come from spending cuts (but was, also, in some cases helpedby rapid growth and/or currency depreciation). In several, however,tax increases also appear to have succeeded in reducing deficitsand debt. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: andrea.boltho{at}magd.ox.ac.uk; andrew.glyn{at}economics.oxford.ac.uk