Is M&A different during a crisis? Evidence from the European banking sector

The financial crisis has affected the landscape of the banking sector around the world. We use a sample of transactions carried out by European acquirers in 2007–2010 to study the acquirer’s stock price market reaction to both announcements and completions of acquisitions. At the aggregate level, we find that there are no significant abnormal returns around the announcement of an acquisition while there are positive abnormal returns at completions. We study the cross-sectional determinants of abnormal returns and find that announcement returns are mainly explained by the acquirer bank characteristics, while completion returns mainly depend on opacity of the target and on the drop in idiosyncratic volatility associated with a reduction of uncertainty.     

The Value Relevance and Timeliness of Write-downs During the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009

This study examines the value relevance and timeliness of write-downs reported by North American and European banks during the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Our study extends Vyas (2011), considering the association between write-downs and stock returns to evaluate the performance of fair value standards during the crisis. Specifically, we investigate claims that strict enforcements of standards resulted in write-downs that were excessive or unnecessary due to temporary market price distortions, or conversely, that standards were flexible enough to allow managers to engage in earnings or capital management. Our empirical results show that both fair-value and aggregate write-downs are associated dollar-for-dollar with contemporaneous security returns, suggesting that, on average, write-downs were timely throughout the financial crisis.     

The market for borrowing corporate bonds

This paper describes the market for borrowing corporate bonds using a comprehensive data set from a major lender. The cost of borrowing corporate bonds is comparable to the cost of borrowing stock, between 10 and 20 basis points, and both have fallen over time. Factors that influence borrowing costs are loan size, percentage of inventory lent, rating, and borrower identity. There is no evidence that bond short sellers have private information. Bonds with Credit Default Swaps (CDS) contracts are more actively lent than those without. Finally, the 2007 Credit Crunch does not affect average borrowing costs or loan volume, but does increase borrowing cost variance.     

The effect of Internet distribution on brick‐and‐mortar sales

I examine the introduction of an online shopping service by a large supermarket chain also operating a network of brick‐and‐mortar stores. The establishment of the Internet channel led to a 13 percent increase in overall revenues, with limited cannibalization of traditional sales. I study the mechanisms underlying this result, focusing on two areas. First, I demonstrate the importance of the reduction of customers' travel costs in the attraction of new business. Second, I provide some evidence that revenues increase more in markets where the chain faces more competitors, suggesting that the online channel can help divert business from rival supermarkets.     

Public knowledge partnerships in European research projects and knowledge creation across R&D institutional sectors

This paper investigates the role of public knowledge partnerships in EU-funded framework programmes (FP) on knowledge creation across a sample of European countries. Different from previous studies, we investigate whether the impact of participation in FP on new knowledge (patents) differs across private companies, universities and public research centres. We find that, while all institutional sectors benefit from joint projects, the main benefits (in terms of patenting activity) go to universities and public research centres, while private companies benefit less. We also find evidence of important complementarities between participation in international research projects and internal innovation drivers (researchers), thus highlighting the crucial role of domestic absorptive capacity for fully benefiting from international cooperation in R&D projects.     

Skills in South Africa: The journey towards credible planning

ABSTRACT

Since 1994 the state has instituted active labour market policies to redress the apartheid skills legacy. The skills planning challenge continues to be how to coordinate efforts for the provision of the right skills to support inclusive economic growth, ensuring an alignment is achieved between what is required in the labour market and the supply from the education and training system. This article traces the South African journey of skills planning from late apartheid until the current time period in 2014 through a historical analysis of the political economy. The analysis reflects on the relationship between state formation in South Africa and the role of the state in directing skills development, and in the more recent period how skills planning responds to both the demands of the economy and ameliorating the historical legacies of education and skills exclusion.     

Married to the firm? A large‐scale investigation of the social context of ownership

Research summary : Using a large sample of private firms across Europe, we examine how the social context of owners affects firm strategy and performance. Drawing on embeddedness theory and the institutional logics perspective, we argue that embeddedness in a family, in particular the nuclear family, can strengthen identification and commitment to the firm, but can also induce owners to behave more conservatively. Consistent with this argument, we find that family‐owned firms have higher profit margins, returns on assets, and survival rates compared to single‐owner or unrelated‐owners' firms, but also invest and grow more slowly, hold greater reserves of cash, and rely less on external debt. These differences are most pronounced when the two largest shareholders are married. Our results highlight the key role of marital ties in explaining differences in behavior and performance among firms. Managerial summary : Despite the prevalence of the married‐couple ownership structure in firms, little research has been dedicated to understanding how these firms are managed and perform. We examine the behavior and performance of firms owned by married couples in a large panel of closely held Western European firms. We find that married‐owner family firms are managed more conservatively relative to firms with unrelated owners and even to other family‐owned firms. In particular, married‐owner family firms invest and grow more slowly and rely less on external finance. However, they also exhibit greater performance stability and higher profitability. Our findings suggest that social relationships among owners have a large impact on firm strategy and performance, and highlight some potential trade‐offs to performance when married couples control firms. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring and forecasting annual public deficit every month: the case of France

In this paper we forecast annual budget deficits using monthly information. Using French monthly data on central government revenues and expenditures, the method we propose consists of: (1) estimating monthly ARIMA models for all items of central government revenues and expenditures; (2) inferring the annual ARIMA models from the monthly models; (3) using the inferred annual ARIMA models to perform one-step-ahead forecasts for each item; (4) compounding the annual forecasts of all revenues and expenditures to obtain an annual budget deficit forecast. The major empirical benefit of this technique is that as soon as new monthly data become available, annual deficit forecasts are updated. This allows us to detect in advance possible slippages in central government finances. For years 2002–2004, forecasts obtained following the proposed approach are compared with a benchmark method and with official predictions published by the French government. An evaluation of their relative performance is provided.      

Can satellite‐based weather index insurance improve the hedging of yield risk of perennial non‐irrigated olive trees in Spain?*

Olive oil yields fluctuate strongly due to their dependence on sufficient precipitation. An interesting option to hedge the yield risk in olive cultivation could be satellite‐based weather index insurance. Therefore, we implement index insurance as a hedging alternative for non‐irrigated olive groves using MODerate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. For this purpose, we focus on the Spanish region of Andalusia, given its importance in olive production at the international level. We calculate three satellite indices: the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), the Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). Meteorological indices related to temperature and precipitation are used as benchmarks. Firstly, we estimate the periods that have the greatest influence on the critical vegetative phase of olives, which extends from March to September. Based on the indices, insurance contracts are designed using a copula approach, which is then employed to evaluate their hedging effectiveness. On average, the hedging effectiveness of VCI‐, VHI‐ and TCI‐based weather index insurance contracts amounts to 38 per cent, 38 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively. Moreover, VCI‐ and VHI‐based weather index insurance contracts outperform traditional weather index insurance contracts based on precipitation (by 29 per cent) and temperature (by 16 per cent) indices.